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hyporational comments on A Workflow with Spaced Repetition - Less Wrong Discussion
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Not really. You pick the category after the answer, not before. The categories are supposed to represent effort in remembering the answer, not how lucky you got with your guess.
If you're guessing, mark that card as having been wrong.
In real life, there are probabilities, but in Anki, you should have either "I remember this with certainty," or "I've forgotten this."