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Vladimir_Nesov comments on 2013 Census/Survey: call for changes and additions - Less Wrong Discussion

27 Post author: Yvain 05 November 2013 03:10AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 17 November 2013 04:35:41PM *  2 points [-]

A new edition of the cryonics question became more misleading than before. The new version is as follows:

What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?

It factored out the probability of global catastrophe, but not other things, and as a result it now superficially looks even more like a question about technical feasibility, but it's still dominated by events unrelated to technical feasibility (motivation vs. feasibility, value drift, failure of storage facility).

(Also, the previous version of the question was more useful, as it produced the probability that goes into expected value estimate of cryonics arrangements. The current conditional question doesn't elicit this probability, and the subsequent question about probability of global catastrophe doesn't allow to straightforwardly restore the total probability estimate for cryonics.)