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hyporational comments on Open Thread, November 8 - 14, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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What's your probability estimate on that happening?
A whole 5-10%.
How did you get this number? Is it lower or higher than Laplace's rule of succession would suggest? Have you ever seen such a comment work?
I have once seen such a comment produce an admission, but I don't think it was very productive. In fact, I think the two people disagreed on what happened.
added: maybe you are distinguishing between your explicitly asking for the person from everyone else complaining to the general public, with your method a priori better, but untested. From my observation so once working out of fifty, Laplace tells me 4%, compatible with your higher 5-10%.
I also PMed some people which I thought would increase the chance of them coming out by maybe 1-2%.