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lmm comments on Open Thread, November 8 - 14, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Here are some previous discussions of Bitcoin on LW. There doesn't seem to be a clear consensus.
Personally, I find this argument to be a compelling reason for optimism. I put a toy amount of money into bitcoin several months ago, and I am quite pleased with that experiment, and I'm considering putting some more money in.
Incidentally, does anyone know if there is a good prediction market site for bitcoins? I know of a few, but I've heard bad things about them.
As far as I know, there is not. betsofbitcoin is completely screwed up, and Predictious is low-volume and a limited number of contracts.
That's disappointing. If the main problem with Predictious is low-volume, it might be worth using anyway, but the limited contracts really puts a damper on its utility.
If you're interested in simply making some bitcoin, Predictious might be a good idea because the low volume implies mispriced contracts. (Similarly, I think if one carefully studies Betsofbitcoin in detail, it may be possible to make steady profits off it: the rules are so bizarre that there must be inefficiencies.) Another advantage of Predictious is that it's operated by Pixode, which seems to be a reasonably legitimate company (more than one can say for most things in the Bitcoin space).