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Vaniver comments on Open Thread, November 8 - 14, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I have not seen a significant LW consensus.
My view is that it is unreasonable to expect one can time the market effectively, and so one should invest in Bitcoin based on the long term prospects, which are either $0 per coin or hundreds of thousands / a million per coin, in which case the probability of hitting the upper end is the primary factor of interest.
Unfortunately, my estimate of the probability that it'll take off is roughly linear in the price, which means I don't consider price shifts very informative, which means it's always a hard decision to be in or out.