CyrilDan comments on Am I Understanding Bayes Right? - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (20)
Yeah, that's what MrMind said too. Thanks!
Yeah, and I fully grasp the "measure of the whole set is 1" thing. (After all, if you're 100% certain something is true, then that's the only thing you think is possible). The additivity axiom is harder for me to grasp, though. It seems like it should be true intuitively, but teaching myself the formal form has been more difficult. Thinking and Deciding tries to derive it from having different bets depending on how things are worded (for example, on whether a coin comes up heads or tails versus whether the sun is up and the coin comes up heads or tails) which I grasp intellectually, but I'm having a hard time grokking it intuitively.
I do have a subjective feeling of success when I use Bayes (or Bayes-derive heuristics, more commonly) in my everyday life, but I really want to be sure I understand the nitty-gritty of it. Even if most of my use of it is just in justifying heuristics, I still want to be sure that I can formulate and apply them properly, you know?