What you're seeing here is the culmination of a LOT of moral processing. Eugine's plausible outcomes, my plausible outcomes, the community's plausible outcomes...
As I see it the problem isn't the complexity of moral processing, but that you fail to recognize the important parts. Your failure here is fairly simple. Let's take the community's plausible outcomes, because yours and Eugine's are a drop in the ocean.
Do you wish this kind of mud slinging to become the community norm? "Oh, I'm 25% sure that ialdabaoth is block-downvoting me, and 50% sure it's bayeslisk." Seriously, I don't know how trustworthy you are, so your probabilities provide me almost zero information. You however provided a name, and I can't see the reason being anything else than a personal grudge. I'm sure people who share it are happy to join you.
If you want karma to be more accurate, this is not the way to go. Trying to introduce a less abusable system might be.
Do you wish this kind of mud slinging to become the community norm?
The question is ambiguous.
Sense 1: "Do you want it to become normal for people to throw out such accusations when they have good reason to think they're being mass-downvoted?"
Sense 2: "Do you want it to become normal for people to throw out such accusations just as a means of causing trouble for others?"
Clearly no one wants #2, but there's something to be said for #1.
As it stands, hyporational's challenge here seems like a fully general objection to anyone ever compla...
I'm just tired of the signal pollution, and would like to be able to use karma to honestly appraise the worth of my articles and posts, without seeing 80% of my downvotes come in chunks that correspond precisely to how many posts I've made since the last massive downvote spree.
EDIT to add data points:
Spurious downvoting stopped soon after I named a particular individual (not ALL downvoting stopped, but the downvotes I got all seemed on-the-level.)
One block of potentially spurious downvoting occurred approximately one week ago, but then karma patterns returned to expected levels. I consider this block dubious, because it reasonably matches what I'd expect to see if someone noticed several of my posts together and disagreed with all of them, and did not match the usual pattern of starting with the earliest or latest post that I had made and downvoting everything (it downvoted all posts in a few threads, but not in other threads), so I'm just adding for completeness.
Spurious, indiscriminate downvoting started up again approximately half an hour ago on Sunday (12/1/2013), around noon MDT.
Edit: And now on Tuesday, 12/3/2013, at 10 AM, I'm watching my karma go down again... about 30 points so far.
Edit: And now on Saturday, 12/14/2013, at 2 PM, I'm watching my karma go down again... about 15 points so far, at a rate of about 1-2 points per second.