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Lumifer comments on Lotteries & MWI - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: DataPacRat 18 November 2013 10:46PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 20 November 2013 06:10:04PM 1 point [-]

if I do ever win a lottery, change my behaviour, and just barely escape the destruction of my home (or my home town), then that would be at least weak evidence favoring MWI through Everett Immortality.

Huh? That's not evidence at all.

Comment author: DataPacRat 20 November 2013 07:38:34PM 0 points [-]

If my home is ever unsurvivably destroyed, then the sequence of events lottery win -> move away -> previous home destroyed is more likely to be what I experienced in a universe where the laws of physics contain MWI (due to Everett Immortality) than they are to be what I'd have experienced in a universe lacking MWI (and in which I could confidently predict that I'm not going to experience winning a lottery). Thus, a simple Bayesian analysis would mean that experiencing lottery -> move -> destruction should increase my estimate that MWI is true. Maybe not by much, but more than nothing.

Comment author: Lumifer 20 November 2013 07:44:18PM 3 points [-]

If my home is ever unsurvivably destroyed, then the sequence of events lottery win -> move away -> previous home destroyed is more likely to be what I experienced in a universe where the laws of physics contain MWI (due to Everett Immortality) than they are to be what I'd have experienced in a universe lacking MWI

Let me repeat myself: Huh?

You weren't killed in the recent tornadoes in Illinois. Is this also "evidence" for MWI?

Comment author: DataPacRat 20 November 2013 08:11:16PM 0 points [-]

If it is evidence for MWI, it's exteremely weak, perhaps on the order of epsilon; because in both MWI and non-MWI versions of physics, I don't have any particular reason to have predicted that I would travel to Illinois at all.

Comment author: Lumifer 20 November 2013 08:18:21PM 2 points [-]

You are expressing, basically, a personal anthropic principle. It is NOT evidence for MWI.

Comment author: DataPacRat 20 November 2013 08:50:48PM -1 points [-]

How do you know that it isn't?

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