alex_zag_al comments on A Limited But Better Than Nothing Way To Assign Probabilities to Statements of Logic, Arithmetic, etc. - Less Wrong Discussion
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oh, excellent, I was hoping people would link me to other posts. I've searched LW on the topic before, but never seen this.
Yeah - there's a predecessor post by Benja Fallenstein that's good but relatively impenetrable, and a more recent post by I believe Abram Demski that comes at the problem from a different angle (A sampling distribution over algorithms).
EDIT: aha, found it