There are techniques for managing reputation, and those techniques are also amoral. For example, a powerful psychopath caring about his reputation may use legal threats and/or assassination against people who want to report about his evil acts. Alternatively, he may spread false rumors about his competitors. He may pay or manipulate people to create a positive image of him.
Just because the reputation is used, it does not guarantee the results will be moral.
A salient example is many cover-ups USSR was involved in, they even attempted to cover up Chernobyl (there was no internal news about it for 3 days, even though people were needlessly exposed to radiation)
FHI has released a new tech report:
Armstrong, Bostrom, and Shulman. Racing to the Precipice: a Model of Artificial Intelligence Development.
Abstract:
The paper is short and readable; discuss it here!
But my main reason for posting is to ask this question: What is the most similar work that you know of? I'd expect people to do this kind of thing for modeling nuclear security risks, and maybe other things, but I don't happen to know of other analyses like this.