I've been thinking recently that I believe in the Theory of Evolution on about the same level as in the Theory of Plate Tectonics. I have grown up being taught that both are true, and I am capable of doing research in either field, or at least reading the literature to examine them for myself. I have not done so in either case, to any reasonable extent.
I am not swayed by the fact that some people consider the former (and not so much the latter) to be controversial, primarily because those people aren't scientists. I tend to be self-congratulatory about this fact, but then I think that I am essentially not interested in examining the evidence, but I am essentially taking it on faith (which the creationists are quick to point out). I think I have good Bayesian reasons to take science on faith (rather than, say, mythology that is being offered in its stead), but do I therefore have good reasons to accept a particular well-established scientific theory on faith, or is it incumbent upon me to examine it, if I think its conclusions are important to my life?
In other words, is it epistemologically wrong to rely on an authority that has produced a number of correct statements (that I could and did verify) to be more or less correct in the future? If I think of this problem as a sort of belief network, with a parent node that has causal connections to hundreds of children, I think such a reliance is reasonable, once you establish that the authority is indeed accurate. On the other hand, appeal to authority is probably the most famous fallacy there is.
Any thoughts? If Eliezer or other people have written on this exact topic, a reference would be appreciated.
I agree that certainly some evolution would follow from your premises (1) and (2). But imagine that we also have independent evidence that Earth is 1 million years old. In that case, I'd be forced to say that the Theory of Evolution can't account for the evidence of life we observe, given mutation rates, etc. This is the sort of thing I am worried about when I say I haven't looked at the evidence. As far as I know there isn't any contradictory evidence of this sort, but there may be specific challenges that aren't well-explained. Creationists like to cite irreducible organs and claim that those exist (i.e. where it can't evolve from anything that has any evolutionary advantage) and are contrary to the theory. I know about this objection, but it would be a lot of work to truly evaluate it in depth.
As far as having an alternative: this isn't necessary. I'd be reluctant to go with "God did it", so I'd be fine with "the theory explains 95% of the evidence, and about the other 5% we don't know yet, and we have no better theory".
Just realised you're the post author, so: Thanks for posting this, it's something I've wondered about in relation to myself, as well. :)
1: No tentacles
This reminds me of something Eliezer once said--"How would I explain the event of my left arm being replaced by a blue tentacle? The answer is that I wouldn't. It isn't going to happen." We do not observe a young (even 10^6) Earth, and by suggesting the possibility of one as counterevidence against the streng... (read more)