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scrafty comments on December Monthly Bragging Thread - Less Wrong Discussion

13 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 03 December 2013 02:46PM

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Comment author: Ishaan 04 December 2013 01:20:01AM *  0 points [-]

made more money off Bitcoin

Request for information - should I take this to mean you sold them for dollars?

(I'm asking because I have some btc which I had forgotten about until recently and am wondering if this is the correct time to trade for dollar, but I haven't done any research on the topic and wouldn't really know where to start.)

Comment author: scrafty 04 December 2013 02:08:48AM 1 point [-]

How risk-averse are you? But even if you aren't, I suspect that right now bitcoins aren't a great investment strictly in expected-value terms due to the high risk that they will decline in value by a lot. No one really knows what will happen, though.

Comment author: Ishaan 04 December 2013 02:56:39AM *  2 points [-]

I'm fairly risk averse in the sense that I wouldn't ordinarily feel confident enough in my knowledge to play on speculative markets...I just happen to possess BTC because someone liked something I wrote and kindly tipped me in BTC a couple years ago. I'd forgotten about it for a while, and today realized that it's worth 20x more than it was originally.

So basically my inaction caused me to inadvertently made a good investment. And even though I wouldn't ordinarily have tried investing in BTC, now that the decision to invest has essentially been made for me I curiously haven't immediately decided to convert to dollars.

Status quo bias is interesting - I'm tempted just to keep it and watch what happens...so far it's still rising. I guess the amount on the line isn't actually large enough for loss aversion fear to kick in .