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Comment author:shminux
10 December 2013 12:00:17AM
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3 points
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What I meant is that stars are born, they procreate (by spewing out new seeds for further star formation), then grow old. Stars "evolved" to be mostly smaller and longer lived due to higher metallicity. They compete for food and they occasionally consume each other. They sometimes live in packs facilitating further star formation, for a time. Some ancient stars have whole galaxies spinning around them, occasionally feeding on their entourage and growing ever larger.
Comment author:pdsufferer
10 December 2013 08:12:56AM
6 points
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Don't traits have to be heritable for evolution to count? I'm not an expert or anything, but I thought I'd know if stars' descendants had similar properties to their parent stars.
Descendant stars might have proportions of elements related to what previous stars generated as novas. I don't know whether there's enough difference in the proportions to matter.
Comment author:JGWeissman
10 December 2013 03:52:37PM
1 point
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Can you give an example of a property a star might have because having that property made its ancestor stars better at producing descendant stars with that property?
Comment author:shminux
10 December 2013 07:16:07PM
-1 points
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Sorry, I'm not an expert in stellar physics. Possibly metallicity, or maybe something else relevant. My original point was to agree that there is no good definition of "life" which does not include some phenomena we normally don't think of as living.
It just doesn't matter very much - certainly not enough to keep wrangling over the exact definition of the boundary. As long as we understand what we mean by crystal, bacterium, RNA, etc., why should we care about the fuzzy dividing line? Are ribozymes going to become more or less precious to us according only to whether we count them as living or not, given that nothing changes about their actual manifested qualities? Should they?
Every science uses terms which are called universal terms, such as ‘energy’, ‘velocity’, ‘carbon’, ‘whiteness’, ‘evolution’, ‘justice’, ‘state’, ‘humanity’. These are distinct from the sort of terms which we call singular terms or individual concepts, like ‘Alexander the Great’, ‘Halley’s Comet’, ‘The First World War’. Such terms as these are proper names, labels attached by convention to the individual things denoted by them.
[...] The school of thinkers whom I propose to call methodological essentialists was founded by Aristotle, who taught that scientific research must penetrate to the essence of things in order to explain them. Methodological essentialists are inclined to formulate scientific questions in such terms as ‘what is matter?’ or ‘what is force?’ or ‘what is justice?’ and they believe that a penetrating answer to such questions, revealing the real or essential meaning of these terms and thereby the real or true nature of the essences denoted by them, is at least a necessary prerequisite of scientific research, if not its main task. Methodological nominalists, as opposed to this, would put their problems in such terms as ‘how does this piece of matter behave?’ or ‘how does it move in the presence of other bodies?’ For methodological nominalists hold that the task of science is only to describe how things behave, and suggest that this is to be done by freely introducing new terms wherever necessary, or by re-defining old terms wherever convenient while cheerfully neglecting their original meaning. For they regard words merely as useful instruments of description.
Most people will admit that methodological nominalism has been victorious in the natural sciences. Physics does not inquire, for instance, into the essence of atoms or of light, but it uses these terms with great freedom to explain and describe certain physical observations, and also as names of certain important and complicated physical structures. So it is with biology. Philosophers may demand from biologists the solution of such problems as ‘what is life?’ or ‘what is evolution?’ and at times some biologists may feel inclined to meet such demands. Nevertheless, scientific biology deals on the whole with different problems, and adopts explanatory and descriptive methods very similar to those used in physics.
The precise definition of life will not be the thing that will determine our opinion about possible extraterrestrial life when we come across it. It will matter whether that hypothetical life is capable of growth, change, producing offspring, heredity, communication, intelligence, etc. etc. - all of these things will matter a lot. Having a very specific subset of these enshrined as "the definition of life" will not matter. This is what Popper's quote is all about.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 11:02:45PM
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The precise definition of life will not be the thing that will determine our opinion about possible extraterrestrial life when we come across it.
It's possible that extraterrestrial life will be nothing but a soup of RNA molecules. If we visit a planet while its life is still in the embryonic stages, we need to include that in our discourse of life in general. We need to have a word to represent what we are talking about when we talk about it. That's the only purpose any definition ever serves. If you want to go down the route of 'the definition of life is useless', you might as well just say 'all definitions are useless'.
Comment author:passive_fist
09 December 2013 11:28:06PM
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What's wrong with 'A self-sustaining (through an external energy source) chemical process characterized by the existence of far-from-equilibrium chemical species and reactions.'?
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 12:29:52AM
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Suspect you would have a difficult time defining "external energy source" in a way that excludes fire but includes mitochondria.
True; what is meant is a simple external energy source such as radiation or a simple chemical source of energy. It's true that this is a somewhat fuzzy line though.
Which equilibrium? Stars are far from the eventual equilibrium of the heat death, and also not at equilibrium with the surrounding vacuum.
I specifically said far-from-equilibrium chemical species and reactions. The chemistry that goes on inside a star is very much in equilibrium conditions.
Not clear whether viruses, prions, and crystals are included or excluded.
Viruses are not self-sustaining systems, so they are obviously excluded. You have to consider the system of virus+host (plus any other supporting processes). Same with prions. Crystals are excluded since they do not have any non-equilibrium chemistry.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 01:14:49AM
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As I said, you have to consider the system of parasite+host (plus any other supporting processes).
I think a lot of the confusion arises from people confusing objects with processes that unfold over time. You can't ask if an object is alive by itself; you have to specify the time-dynamics of the system. Statements like 'a bacterium is alive' are problematic because a frozen bacterium in a block of ice is definitely not alive. Similarly, a virus that is dormant is most definitely not alive. But that same virus inside a living host cell is participating in a living process i.e. it's part of a self-sustaining chain of non-equilibrium chemical reactions. This is why I specifically used the words 'chemical process'.
Comment author:kalium
10 December 2013 06:54:46AM
-1 points
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So this is a definition for "life" only, not "living organism," and you would say that a parasite, virus, or prion is part of something alive, and that as soon as you remove the parasite from the host it is not alive. How many of its own life functions must a parasite be able to perform once removed from the host in order for it to be considered alive after removal from the host?
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 07:22:27AM
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0 points
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So this is a definition for "life" only
Precisely.
How many of its own life functions must a parasite be able to perform once removed from the host in order for it to be considered alive after removal from the host?
As the definition says. It must demonstrate non-equilibrium chemistry and must be self-sustaining. Again, 'simple forms of energy' is relative, so I agree that there's some fuzziness here. However, if you look at the extreme complexity of the chemical processes of life (dna, ribosomes, proteins, etc.) and compare that to what most life consumes (sugars, minerals, etc.) there is no ambiguity. It's quite clear that there's a difference.
what is meant is a simple external energy source such as radiation or a simple chemical source of energy.
I do not see how this answers the objection. All you did was add the qualification 'simple' to the existing 'external'. Is this meant to exclude fire, or include it? If the former, how does it do so? Presumably plant matter is a sufficiently "simple" source of energy, since otherwise you would exclude human digestion; plant matter also burns.
The chemistry that goes on inside a star is very much in equilibrium conditions.
Again, which equilibrium? The star is nowhere near equilibrium with its surroundings.
Viruses are not self-sustaining systems,
Neither are humans... in a vacuum; but viruses are quite self-sustaining in the presence of a host. You are sneaking in environmental information that wasn't there in the original "simple" definition.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 02:47:46AM
0 points
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Look at my reply to kalium. To reiterate, the problem is that people confuse objects with processes. The definition I gave explicitly refers to processes. This answers your final point.
All you did was add the qualification 'simple' to the existing 'external'. Presumably plant matter is a sufficiently "simple" source of energy, since otherwise you would exclude human digestion; plant matter also burns.
I already conceded that it's a fuzzy definition. As I said, you are correct that 'simple' is a subjective property. However, if you look at the incredibly complex reactions that occur inside human cells (gene expression, ribosomes, ATP production, etc), then yes, amino acids and sugars are indeed extremely simple in comparison. If you pour some sugars and phosphates and amino acids into a blender you will not get much DNA; not nearly in the quantities that it is found in cells. This is what is meant by 'far from equilibrium'. There is much more DNA in cells than you would find if you took the sugars and fatty acids and vitamins and just mixed them together randomly.
Again, which equilibrium? The star is nowhere near equilibrium with its surroundings.
Ok, chemical equilibrium. This does not seem to me like a natural boundary; why single out this particular equilibrium and energy scale?
As I said, you are correct that 'simple' is a subjective property.
I think you're missing my point, which is that I don't see how your definition excludes fire as a living thing.
The definition I gave explicitly refers to processes. This answers your final point.
I don't think it does. A human in vacuum is alive, for a short time. How do you distinguish between "virus in host cell" and "human in supporting environment"?
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 04:26:47AM
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why single out this particular equilibrium and energy scale?
Because the domain of chemistry is broad enough to contain life as we know it, and also hypothesized forms of life on other planets, without being excessively inclusive.
I think you're missing my point, which is that I don't see how your definition excludes fire as a living thing.
I tried to answer it. The chemical species that are produced in fire are the result of equilibrium reactions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combustion . They are simple chemical species (with more complex species only being produced in small quantities; consistent with equilibrium). Especially, they are not nearly as complex as compared to the feedstock as living chemistry is.
I don't think it does. A human in vacuum is alive, for a short time. How do you distinguish between "virus in host cell" and "human in supporting environment"?
They are both part of living processes. The timescale for 'self-sustaining' does not need to be forever. It only needs to be for some finite time that is larger than what would be expected of matter rolling down the energy hill towards equilibrium.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 01:10:52AM
4 points
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Stuff that a rational person would be better off not knowing. For example, if I live among people of religion X, and I find out something disgusting that the religion's founder did, and whenever someone discussed the founder my face betrayed my feelings of disgust, then knowledge of the founder's misdeeds could harm me.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 05:13:05AM
8 points
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Stuff that a rational person would be better off not knowing.
Interesting. So, living in Soviet Russia a rational person would treat knowledge about GULAG, etc. as a basilisk? Or a rational person in Nazi Germany would actively avoid information about the Holocaust?
Comment author:drethelin
10 December 2013 07:06:00PM
2 points
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It depends on one's own risk factors. It's REALLY important to know about the holocaust if you're jewish or have jewish ancestry, but arguably safer or at least more pleasant not to if you don't.
I think the moral question (as opposed to the practical safety question) of "is it better to know a dark truth or not" will come down to whether or not you can effectively influence the world after knowing it. You can categorize bad things into avoidable/changeable and unavoidable/unchangeable, and (depending on how much you value truth in general) knowing about unavoidable bad thing will only make you less happy without making the world a better place.
unfortunately it's pretty hard to tell whether you can do anything about a bad thing without learning about what it is.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 07:15:43PM
2 points
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It depends on one's own risk factors.
First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me--
and there was no one left to speak out for me.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
10 December 2013 10:46:07AM
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2 points
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It is unclear what will be the consequences and side-effects of not knowing the specific evidence. And on meta level: what will be the consequences of modifying your cognitive algorithms to avoid the paths that seem to lead to such evidence.
Depending on all these specific details, it may be good or bad. Human imperfection makes it impossible to evaluate. And actually not knowing the specific evidence makes it impossible again. So... the question is analogical to: "If I am too stupid to understand the question, should I answer 'yes', or should I answer 'no'?" (Meaning: yes = avoid the evidence, no = don't avoid the evidence.)
Comment author:FiftyTwo
09 December 2013 07:49:36PM
4 points
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There are a couple of commercially available home eeg sets available now, has anyone tried them? Are they useful tools for self monitoring mental states?
[Reposted from last thread because I think i was too late to be seen mch]
What are community norms here about sexism (and related passive aggressive "jokes" and comments about free speech) at the LW co-working chat? Is LW going for wheatons law or free speech and to what extent should I be attempting to make people who engage in such activities feel unwelcome or should I be at all?
I have hesitated to bring this up because I am aware its a mind-killer but I figured If facebook can contain a civil discussion about vaccines then LW should be able to talk about this?
Ideally, I'd want the people to feel that the behavior is unwelcome rather than that they themselves are unwelcome, but people are apt to have their preferred behaviors entangled with their sense of self, so the ideal might not be feasible. Still, it's probably worth giving a little thought to discouraging behaviors rather than getting rid of people.
Comment author:TheOtherDave
09 December 2013 09:18:29PM
18 points
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There are no official community norms on the topic.
For my own part, I observe a small but significant number of people who seem to believe that LessWrong ought to be a community where it's acceptable to differentially characterize women negatively as long as we do so in the proper linguistic register (e.g, adopting an academic and objective-sounding tone, avoiding personal characterizations, staying cool and detached).
The people who believe this ought to be unacceptable are either less common or less visible about it. The majority is generally silent on such matter, though will generally join in condemning blatant register-violations.
The usual result is something closer to wheaton's law at the surface level, but closer to "say what you think is true" at the structural level. (Which is not quite free speech, but a close enough cousin in context.) That is, it's often considered OK to say things, as long as they are properly hedged and constructed, that if said more vulgarly or directly would be condemned for violating wheaton's law, and which in other communities would be condemned for a variety of reasons.
I think there's a general awareness that this pattern-matches to sexism, though I expect that many folks here consider that to be mistaken pattern-matching (the "I'm not sexist; I can't help it if you feminists choose to interpret my words and actions that way" stance).
So my guess is that if you attempt to make people who engage in sexism (and related defenses) feel unwelcome you will most likely trigger net-negative reactions unless you're very careful with your framing.
It does answer my question. Also thanks for suggestion to focus on the behaviour rather than the person. I didn't even realize I was thinking like that till you two pointed it out.
Comment author:hyporational
10 December 2013 02:46:42PM
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3 points
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Disclaimer: this is not meant as a defence of the behaviour in question, since I don't exactly know what we're talking about.
For my own part, I observe a small but significant number of people who seem to believe that LessWrong ought to be a community where it's acceptable to differentially characterize women negatively
LessWrong characterizes outgroups negatively all the time. I cautiously suggest the whole premise of LW characterizes most people negatively, and it's easier to talk about any outgroup irrationality, in this case women statistically, than look at our own flaws. If we talked about what men are like on average, we might not have many flattering things to say either.
Should negative characterizations of people be avoided in general, irrespective of how accurately we think they describe the average of the groups in question?
If you see characterizations that are wrong, you should obviously confront them.
Comment author:TheOtherDave
10 December 2013 04:20:50PM
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6 points
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I agree that there are also other groups of people who are differentially negatively characterized; I restricted myself to discussions of women because the original question was about sexism.
I cautiously suggest you could say the whole premise of lw characterizes most people negatively,
I would cautiously agree. There's a reason I used the word "differentially."
Should negative characterizations of people be avoided in general, irrespective of how accurately we think they describe the average of the groups in question?
Personally, I'm very cautions about characterizing groups by their averages, as I find I'm not very good about avoiding the temptation to then characterize individuals in that group by the group's average, which is particularly problematic since I can assign each individual to a vast number of groups and then end up characterizing that individual differently based on the group I select, even though I haven't actually gathered any new evidence. I find it's a failure mode my mind is prone to, so I watch out for it.
If your mind isn't as prone to that failure mode as mine, your mileage will of course vary.
Comment author:TheOtherDave
10 December 2013 05:49:09PM
5 points
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I'm not sure how not being differential is supposed to work though. Different groups have different kinds of failure modes.
Suppose it's actually true in the world that all people are irrational, that blue-eyed people (BEPs) are irrational in a blue way, green-eyed-people (GEPs) are irrational in a green way, and green and blue irrationality can be clearly and meaningfully distinguished from one another.
Now consider two groups, G1 and G2. G1 often discusses both blue and green irrationality. G2 often discusses blue irrationality and rarely discuss green irrationality. The groups are otherwise indistinguishable.
How would you talk about the difference between G1 and G2? (Or would you talk about it at all?)
For my own part, I'm comfortable saying that G2 differentially negatively characterizes BEPs more than G1 does. That said, I acknowledge that one could certainly argue that in fact G1 differentially negatively characterizes BEPs just as much as G2 does, because it discusses blue and green irrationality differently, so if you have a better suggestion for how to talk about it I'm listening.
Comment author:hyporational
10 December 2013 06:17:10PM
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What if G1=BEP and G2=GEP and discussing outgroup irrationality is much easier than discussing ingroup irrationality? Now suppose G1 is significantly larger than G2, and perhaps even that discussing G1 is more relevant to G2 winning* and discussing G2 is more relevant to G1 winning. How is the situation going to look like for a member of G2 who's visiting G1? How about if you mix the groups a bit? Is it wrong?
if you have a better suggestion for how to talk about it I'm listening.
You connotationally implied the behaviour you described to be wrong. Can you denotationally do that?
Comment author:TheOtherDave
10 December 2013 07:48:41PM
3 points
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How is the situation going to look like for a member of G2 who's visiting G1?
I expect a typical G2/GEP visiting a G1/BEP community in the scenario you describe, listening to the BEPs differentially characterizing GEPs as irrational in negative-value-laden ways, will feel excluded and unwelcome and quite possibly end up considering the BEP majority a threat to their ongoing wellbeing.
How about if you mix the groups a bit?
I assume you mean, what if G1 is mostly BEPs but has some GEPs as well? I expect most of G1's GEP minority to react like the G2/GEP visitors above, though it depends on how self-selecting they are. I also expect them to develop a more accurate understanding of the real differences between BEPs and GEPs than they obtained from a simple visit. I also expect some of G1's BEP majority to develop a similarly more-accurate understanding.
Is it wrong?
I would prefer a scenario that causes less exclusion and hostility than the above.
How about you?
You connotationally implied the behaviour you described to be wrong. Can you denotationally do that?
I'm not sure.
As I said, I'm cautious about characterizing groups by their averages, because it leads me to characterize individuals differently based on the groups I tend to think of them as part of, rather than based on actual evidence, which often leads me to false conclusions.
I suspect this is true of most people, so I endorse others being cautious about it as well.
Comment author:hyporational
10 December 2013 08:41:22PM
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I would prefer a scenario that causes less exclusion and hostility than the above. How about you?
I definitely want less exclusion and hostility, but I'm not sure the above scenario causes them for all values like GEP and BEP, nor for all kinds of examples of their irrationality. Perhaps we're assuming different values for the moving parts in the scenario, although we're pretending to be objective.
Many articles here are based on real life examples and this makes them more interesting. This often means picking an outgroup and demonstrating how they're irrational. To make things personal, I'd say health care has gotten it's fair share, especially in the OB days. I never thought the problem was that my ingroup was disproportionally targeted, but I was more concerned about strawmen and the fact I couldn't do much to correct them.
Would it have been better if I had not seen those articles? I don't think so, since they contained important information about the authors' biases. They also told me that perhaps characterizations of other groups here are relatively inaccurate too. Secret opinions cannot be intentionally changed. Had their opinions been muted, I would have received information only through inexplicable downvotes when talking about certain topics.
I'm not sure the above scenario causes them for all values like GEP and BEP
I'm not exactly sure what reference class you're referring to, but I certainly agree that there exist groups in the above scenario for whom negligible amounts of exclusion and hostility are being created.
Perhaps we're assuming different values for the moving parts in the scenario, although we're pretending to be objective.
I don't know what you intend for this sentence to mean.
Would it have been better if I had not seen those articles? I don't think so, [..] Had their opinions been muted, I would have received information only through inexplicable downvotes when talking about certain topics.
I share your preferences among the choices you lay out here.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 11:26:02PM
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6 points
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That is, it's often considered OK to say things, as long as they are properly hedged and constructed, that if said more vulgarly or directly would be condemned for violating wheaton's law, and which in other communities would be condemned for a variety of reasons.
Yes, and this is best, is it not? I enjoy reading what people have to say, even if their views are directly in contradiction to mine. I've changed my views more than once because it was correctly pointed out to me why my views were wrong. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/How_To_Actually_Change_Your_Mind
And about being vulgar, it's just a matter of human psychology. People in general - even on LW - are more receptive to arguments that are phrased politely and intelligently. We'd all like to think that we are immune to this, but we are not.
Comment author:matheist
10 December 2013 05:05:30AM
1 point
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(I haven't seen the LW co-working chat)
If you want to tell people off for being sexist, your speech is just as free as theirs. People are free to be dicks, and you're free to call them out on it and shame them for it if you want.
I think you should absolutely call it out, negative reactions be damned, but I also agree with NancyLebovitz that you may get more traction out of "what you said is sexist" as opposed to "you are sexist".
To say nothing is just as much an active choice as to say something. Decide what kind of environment you want to help create.
Comment author:kalium
10 December 2013 08:39:03PM
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1 point
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A norm of "don't be a dick" isn't inherently a violation of free speech. The question is, does LW co-working chat have a norm of not being a dick? Would being a dick likely lead to unfavorable reactions, or would objecting to dickish behavior be frowned on instead?
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 05:20:54AM
8 points
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What are community norms here about sexism
Depends on how you define sexism. Some people consider admitting that men and women are different to be sexism, never mind acting on that belief :-/
TheOtherDave's answer is basically correct. Crass and condescending people don't get far, but its possible to have a discussion of issues which cost Larry Summers so dearly.
Comment author:TheOtherDave
10 December 2013 07:25:55AM
7 points
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Since this comment is framed in part as endorsing mine, I should probably say explicitly that while I agree denotationally with every piece of this comment taken individually, I don't endorse the comment as a whole connotationally.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
10 December 2013 10:29:23AM
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3 points
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I don't have an answer here, just a note that this question actually contains two questions, and it would be good to answer both of them together. It would also be a good example of using rationalist taboo.
A: What are the community norms for defining sexism?
B: What are the community norms for dealing with sexism (as defined above)?
Answering B without answering A can later easily lead to motivated discussions about sexism, where people would be saying: "I think that X is [not] an example of sexism" when what they really wanted to say would be: "I think that it is [not] appropriate to use the community norm B for X".
Comment author:hyporational
10 December 2013 05:41:27PM
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5 points
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I connotationally interpret your question as: "what are the community norms about bad things?"
You're not giving us enough information so that we could know what you're talking about, and you're asking our blind permission to condemn behaviour you disagree with.
Fair critique. Despite the lack of clarity on my part the comments have more than satisfactorily answered the question about community norms here. I suppose the responders can thank g-factor for that :)
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 11:22:22PM
0 points
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I'd like to see some evidence that such stuff is going on before pointing fingers and making rules that could possible alienate a large fraction of people.
I've been attending the co-working chat for about a week, on and off (I take the handle of 'fist') and so far everyone seems friendly and more than willing to accomodate the girls in the chat. Have you personally encountered any problems?
Comment author:Gvaerg
09 December 2013 08:45:20PM
3 points
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I've noticed something: the MIRI blog RSS feed doesn't update as a new article appears on the blog, but rather at certain times (two or three times a month?) it updates with the articles that have been published since the last update.
Comment author:Alsadius
10 December 2013 07:17:26PM
2 points
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Not really. You can get by without Potter knowledge(as usual, this author mangles it a fair bit anyways), but the plot is heavily tied into that of Firefly/Serenity, and the Firefly characters are more prominent. That said, feel free to read his Potter-only stuff instead - I haven't gone through his whole oeuvre, but everything I've read has been hilarious and well-written.
Comment author:beoShaffer
09 December 2013 10:08:19PM
6 points
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Object level response To the Stars. Meta level, check the monthly media thread archives and/or HPMOR's author notes. They have lots of good suggestions, and in depth reviews.
I'm also one-thirds into Amends, or Truth and Reconciliation, which is a decent look at how Harry Potter characters would logically react to the end of the Second Wizarding War. So far no idiot balls and pretty good characterization.
Comment author:B_For_Bandana
09 December 2013 09:25:26PM
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61 points
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Today is the thirty-fourth anniversary of the official certification that smallpox had been eradicated worldwide. From Wikipedia,
The global eradication of smallpox was certified, based on intense verification activities in countries, by a commission of eminent scientists on 9 December 1979 and subsequently endorsed by the World Health Assembly on 8 May 1980. The first two sentences of the resolution read:
Having considered the development and results of the global program on smallpox eradication initiated by WHO in 1958 and intensified since 1967 … Declares solemnly that the world and its peoples have won freedom from smallpox, which was a most devastating disease sweeping in epidemic form through many countries since earliest time, leaving death, blindness and disfigurement in its wake and which only a decade ago was rampant in Africa, Asia and South America.
Archaeological evidence shows evidence of smallpox infection in the mummies of Egyptian pharaohs. There was a Hindu goddess of smallpox in ancient India. By the 16th century it was a pandemic throughout the Old World, and epidemics with mortality rates of 30% were common. When smallpox arrived in the New World, there were epidemics among Native Americans with mortality rates of 80-90%. By the 18th century it was pretty much everywhere except Australia and New Zealand, which successfully used intensive screening of travelers and cargo to avoid infection.
The smallpox vaccine was one of the first ever developed, by English physician Edward Jenner in 1798. Vaccination programs in the wealthy countries made a dent in the pandemic, so that by WWI the disease was mostly gone in North America and Europe. The Pan-American Health Organization had eradicated smallpox in the Western hemisphere by 1950, but there were still 50 million cases per year, of which 2 million were fatal, mostly in Africa and India.
In 1959, the World Health Assembly adopted a resolution to eradicate smallpox worldwide. They used ring vaccination to surround and contain outbreaks, and little by little the number of cases dropped. The last naturally-occurring case was found in October 1975, in a two-year-old Bangladeshi girl named Rahima Banu, who recovered after medical attention by a WHO team. For the next four years, the WHO searched for more cases (in vain) before declaring the eradication program successful.
Smallpox scarred, blinded, and killed countless billions of people, on five continents, for hundreds to thousands of years, and now it is gone. It did not go away on its own. Highly trained doctors invented, then perfected a vaccine, other engineers found ways to manufacture it very cheaply, and lots of other serious, dedicated people resolved to vaccinate each vulnerable human being on the surface of the Earth, and then went out and did it.
Because Smallpox Eradication Day marks one of the most heroic events in the history of the human species, it is not surprising that it has become a major global holiday in the past few decades, instead of inexplicably being an obscure piece of trivia I had to look up on Wikipedia. I'm just worried that as time goes on it's going to get too commercialized. If you're going to a raucous SE Day party like I am, have fun and be safe.
Old King Plague is dead,
the smallpox plague is dead,
no more children dying hard
no more cripples living scarred
with the marks of the devil's kiss,
we still may die of other things
but we will not die of this.
Raise your glasses high
for all who will not die
to all the doctors, nurses too
to all the lab technician who
drove it into the ground
if the whole UN does nothing else
it cut this terror down.
But scarce the headlines said,
the ancient plague was dead,
then they were filled with weapons new
toxic waste and herpes too,
and the AIDS scare coming on
ten new plagues will take its place
but at least this one is gone.
Population soars,
checked with monstrous wars
preachers rant at birth control
"Screww the body, save the soul",
bring new deaths off the shelves,
and say to Nature, "Mother, please,
we'd rather do it ourselves".
Old King Plague is dead,
the smallpox plague is dead,
no more children dying hard
no more cripples living scarred
with the marks of the devil's kiss,
we still may die of other things
but we will not die of this, oh no,
we will not die of this.
Comment author:CellBioGuy
10 December 2013 02:49:44AM
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10 points
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The virus currently only still exists as samples in two freezers in two labs (known to the scientific community). These days I think that that is overkill even for research purposes for this pathogen, what with the genome sequenced and the ability to synthesize arbitrary sequences artificially. If you absolutely must have part of it for research make that piece again from scratch. Consign the rest of the whole infectious replication-competent particles to the furnace where they belong.
EDIT: I found a paper in which smallpox DNA was extracted and viruses observed via EM from a 50 year old fixed tissue sample from a pathology lab that was not from one of the aforementioned collections. No word in the paper on if it was potentially infectious or just detectable levels of nucleic acids and particles. These things could be more complicated to 100% securely destroy than we thought...
Wirth's law is a computing adage made popular by Niklaus Wirth in 1995. It states that "software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster."
Is Wirth's Law still in effect? Most of the examples I've read about are several years old.
ETA: I find it interesting that Wirth's Law was apparently a thing for decades (known since the 1980s, supposedly) but seems to be over. I'm no expert though, I just wonder what changed.
Comment author:Manfred
09 December 2013 11:29:17PM
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3 points
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It wasn't even true in 1995, I don't think. The first way of evaluating it that comes to mind is the startup times of "equivalent" programs, like MS Windows, Macintosh OS, various Corels, etc.
Comment author:fubarobfusco
10 December 2013 12:52:41AM
4 points
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Startup times for desktop operating systems seem to have trended up, then down, between the '80s and today; with the worst performance being in the late '90s to 2000 or so when rebooting on any of the major systems could be a several-minutes affair. Today, typical boot times for Mac, Windows, or GNU/Linux systems can be in a handful of seconds if no boot-time repairs (that's "fsck" to us Unix nerds) are required.
I know that a few years back, there was a big effort in the Linux space to improve startup times, in particular by switching from serial startup routines (with only one subsystem starting at once) to parallel ones where multiple independent subsystems could be starting at the same time. I expect the same was true on the other major systems as well.
Comment author:knb
10 December 2013 05:20:24AM
2 points
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My experience is that boot time was worst in Windows Vista (released 2007) and improved a great deal in Windows 7 and 8. MS Office was probably at its worst in bloatiness in the 2007 edition as well.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 04:49:08PM
0 points
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It would be interesting to plot the time sequence of major chip upgrades from intel on the same page as the time sequence of major upgrades of MS Word and/or MS Excel. My vague sense is the mid/early 90s had Word releases that I avoided for a year or two until faster machines came along that made them more usable from my point of view. But it seems the rate of new Word releases has come way down compared to the rate of new chip releases. That is, perhaps hardware is creeping up faster than features are in the current epoch?
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 01:02:26AM
10 points
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It was my impression that Wirth's law was mostly intended to be tongue-in-cheek, and refer to how programs with user interfaces are getting bloated (which may be true depending on your point of view).
In terms of software that actually needs speed (numerical simulations, science and tech software, games, etc.) the reverse has always been true. New algorithms are usually faster than old ones. Case in point is the trusty old BLAS library which is the workhorse of scientific computing. Modern BLAS implementations are extremely super-optimized, far more optimized than older implementations (for current computing hardware, of course).
Comment author:Tenoke
10 December 2013 10:06:26AM
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-1 points
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I mean, this formulation is wrong (software isn't getting slower), except for the tongue-in-cheek original interpretation I guess. On the other hand, software is getting faster at a slower rate than hardware is and that is still an important observation.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 04:44:01PM
0 points
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I find it interesting that Wirth's Law was apparently a thing for decades (known since the 1980s, supposedly) but seems to be over. I'm no expert though, I just wonder what changed.
I think both software and hardware got further out on the learning curve which means their real rates of innovative development have both slowed down which means the performance of software has sped up.
I don't get how I get to the last part of that sentence from the first part either, but it almost makes sense.
Comment author:JoshuaZ
09 December 2013 11:57:44PM
15 points
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New work suggests that life could have arisen and survived a mere 15 million years after the Big Bang, when the microwave background radiation levels would have provided sufficient energy to keep almost all planets warm. Summary here, and actual article here. This is still very preliminary, but the possibility at some level is extremely frightening. It adds billions of years of time for intelligent life to have arisen that we don't see, and if anything suggests that the Great Filter is even more extreme than we thought.
Comment author:bramflakes
10 December 2013 12:58:15AM
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5 points
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There weren't any planets 15 million years after the Big Bang. The first stars formed 100 million years after the Big Bang, and you need another few million on top of that for the planets to form and cool down.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 12:58:39AM
11 points
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Now that is scary, although there are a few complications. Rocky bodies were probably extremely rare during that time since the metal enrichment of the Universe was extremely low. You can't build life out of just hydrogen and helium.
Doesn't the relevant number of opportunities for life to appear have units of mass-time?
Isn't the question not how early was some Goldilocks zone, but how much mass was in a Goldilocks zone for how long? This says that the whole universe was a Goldilocks zone for just a few million years. The whole universe is big, but a few million years is small. And how much of the universe was metallic? The paper emphasizes that some of it was, but isn't this a quantitative question?
Comment author:JoshuaZ
10 December 2013 03:06:25AM
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3 points
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I agree that a few million years is small, and that the low metal content would be a serious issue (which in addition to being a problem for life forming would also make planets rare as pointed out by bramflakes in their reply). However, the real concern as I see it is that if everything was like this for a few million years, then if life did arise (and you have a whole universe for it to arise), as the cooldown occurred, it seems highly plausible that some forms of life would have then adopted to the cooler environment. This makes panspermia more plausible and thus makes life in general more likely. Additionally, it makes more of a chance for life to get lucky if it managed to get into one of the surviving safe zones (e.g. something like the Mars-Earth biotransfer hypothesis).
I think you may be correct that this isn't a complete run around and panic level update, but it is still disturbing. My initial estimate for how bad this could be is likely overblown.
I'm nervous about the idea that life might adapt to conditions in which it cannot originate. Unless you mean spores, but they have to wait for the world to warm up.
As for panspermia, we have a few billion years of modern conditions before the Earth, which is itself already a problem. I think the natural comparison is the size of that Goldilocks zone to the very early one. But I don't know which is bigger.
Here are three environments. Which is better for radiation of spores?
(1) a few million years where every planet is wet
(2) many billion years, all planets cold
(3) a few billion years, a few good planets.
The first sounds just too short for anything to get anywhere, but the universe is smaller. If one source of life produces enough spores to hit everything, then greater time depth is better, but if they need to reproduce along the way, the modern era seems best.
Comment author:JoshuaZ
10 December 2013 04:04:25AM
0 points
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I'm nervous about the idea that life might adapt to conditions in which it cannot originate.
Why this happened on Earth? It is pretty likely for example that life couldn't originate in an environment like the Sahara desert, but life can adapt and survive there.
I do agree that spores are one of the more plausible scenarios. I don't know enough to really answer the question, and I'm not sure that anyone does, but your intuition sounds plausible.
There's barely any life in the Sahara. It looks a lot like spores to me. I want a measure of life that includes speed. Some kind of energy use or maybe cell divisions. I expect the probability of life developing in a place to be proportional to amount of life there after it arrives. Maybe that's silly; there certainly are exponential effects of molecules arriving the same place at the same time that aren't relevant to the continuation of life. But if you can rule out this claim, I think your model of the origin of life is too detailed.
Comment author:JoshuaZ
10 December 2013 05:02:24AM
0 points
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There's barely any life in the Sahara. It looks a lot like spores to me.
I'm not sure what you mean by this.
I want a measure of life that includes speed.
Do you mean something like the idea that if an environment is too harsh even if life can survive the chance that it will evolve into anything beyond a simple organism is low?
Comment author:Nornagest
10 December 2013 04:44:14AM
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1 point
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We should have the data now to take a whack at the metallicity side of that question, if only by figuring out how many Population 2 stars show up in the various extrasolar planet surveys in proportion with Pop 1. Don't think I've ever seen a rigorous approach to this, but I'd be surprised if someone hasn't done it.
One sticking point is that the metallicity data would be skewed in various ways (small stars live longer and therefore are more likely to be Pop 2), but that shouldn't be a showstopper -- the issues are fairly well understood.
The paper mentions a model. Maybe the calculation is even done in one of the references. The model does not sound related to the observations you mention.
Comment author:CellBioGuy
10 December 2013 03:18:08AM
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1 point
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1 - why should no intelligent life arising from a set of places that were likely habitable for only 5 million years (if they existed at all, which is doubtful) be surprising?
2 - I raise the possibility of outcomes for intelligent life that are not destruction or expansion through the universe.
Edit: Gah, that's what I get for leaving this window open while about 8 other people commented
Comment author:solipsist
10 December 2013 03:22:19AM
7 points
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I don't think this is frightening. If you thought life couldn't have arisen more than 3.6 billion years ago but then discover that it could have arisen 13.8 billion years ago, you should be at most 4 times as scared.
The number of habitable planets in the galaxy over the number of habituated planets is a scary number.
The time span of earth civilization over the time span of earth life is a scary number.
If it were just a date, then, yes, a factor of 4 is lost in the noise. But switching to panspermia changes the calculation. Try Overcoming Bias [Added: maybe this is only a change under Robin Hanson's hard steps model.]
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 03:50:14AM
0 points
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It's potentially scary not because of the time difference, but because of the quantity of habitable planets. It's understood that current conditions in the Universe make it so that only relatively few planets are in the habitable zone. But if the Universe was warm, then almost all planets would be in the habitable zone, making the likelihood of life that much higher.
As I said in my reply to JoshuaZ though, the complication is that rocky planets were probably much rarer than they are now.
Comment author:drethelin
10 December 2013 06:43:50PM
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3 points
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It seems to take a lot more than 15 million years to get from "life" to "intelligent life". According to the article this period would only have lasted for a million years, so at most we would probably get a lot of monocellular life arising and then dying during the cooloff.
Comment author:shminux
10 December 2013 08:41:58PM
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0 points
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The paper implies that it only adds millions of years, not billions.
a new regime of habitability made possible
for a few Myr by the uniform CMB radiation
Once the CMB cools down enough with the expansion of the Universe, the Goldilock conditions disappear. The CMB temperature is roughly inversely proportional to the age of the Universe, so 300K at 15 million years becomes just 150K 15 million years later.
Comment author:TsviBT
10 December 2013 12:35:02AM
24 points
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PSA: If you want to get store-bought food (as opposed to eating out all the time or eating Soylent), but you don't want to have to go shopping all the time, check to see if there is a grocery delivery service in your area. At least where I live, the delivery fee is far outbalanced by the benefit of almost no shopping time, slightly cheaper food, and decreased cognitive load (I can just copy my previous order, and tweak it as desired).
Comment author:bramflakes
10 December 2013 04:44:16PM
4 points
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My family does this and it's not such a good idea. Old forgotten food will accumulate at the bottom and you'll have less usable space at the top. Chucking out the old food is a) a trivial inconvenience and b) guilt-inducing.
Unless it's one of those freezers with sliding trays.
Comment author:Prismattic
11 December 2013 12:48:24AM
-1 points
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I disagree with this. Having lived in the US my entire life (specifically MA and VA), I've been in very few homes that had chest freezers, and as far as I recall, none that only had chest freezers (as opposed to extra storage beyond a combination refrigerator/freezer).
I'm not willing to pay to resolve this difference of perception, but if one wanted to do so, the information is probably available here.
Comment author:Lumifer
11 December 2013 01:01:48AM
2 points
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I am not sure we disagree. I'm not saying that people are using chest freezers instead of normal refrigerators. I'm saying that if a family buys a separate freezer in addition to a regular fridge, in the US that separate freezer is likely to be a chest freezer.
Comment author:Nornagest
11 December 2013 01:04:37AM
0 points
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Here on the West Coast I've seen both standing and chest models, although combination refrigerator/freezers are far more common than either. I associate the chest style with hunters and older people, but that likely reflects my upbringing; I wouldn't hazard a guess as to which is more common overall.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 07:49:32PM
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7 points
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Empiricism! :-)
Most of the food that I eat doesn't freeze or doesn't freeze well (think fruits and vegetables). Frozen meat is OK for a stew but not at all OK for steaks.
I find -- based on my personal experience -- the texture, aromas, etc. of fresh food to be quite superior to those of frozen food.
Comment author:Bayeslisk
10 December 2013 09:34:28AM
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-3 points
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Observation: game theory is not uniquely human, and does not inherently cater to important human values.
Immediate consequence: game theory, taken to extremes already found in human history, is inhuman.
Immediate consequence the second: Austrian school economics, in its reliance on allowing markets to come to equilibrium on their own, is inhuman.
Conjecture: if you attempt to optimize by taking your own use of game theory and similar arts to similar extremes, you will become a monster of a similar type.
Observation: a refusal to use game theory in considerations results in a strictly worse life than otherwise, and possibly its use more often, more intensely, and with less puny human mercy will result in a better life for you alone.
Conjecture: this really, really looks like the scary and horrifying spawn of a Red Queen race, defecting on PD, and being a jerk in the style of Cthulhu.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
10 December 2013 10:36:31AM
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5 points
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Game theory is about strategies, not about values. It tells you which strategy should you use, if your goal is to maximize X. It does not tell you what X is. (Although some X's, such as survival, are instrumental goals for many different terminal goals, so they will be supported by many strategies.)
Comment author:Bayeslisk
10 December 2013 04:05:18PM
-2 points
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OK, I think I was misunderstood and also tired and phrased things poorly. Game theory itself is not a bad thing; it is somewhat like a knife, or a nuke. It has no intrinsic morality, but the things it seems to tend to be used for, for several reasons, wind up being things that eject negative externalities like crazy.
Yes, but this seems to be most egregious when you advocate letting millions of people starve because the precious Market might be upset.
Besides the fact that maximizing a non-Friendly function leads to horrible results (whether the system being maximized is the Market, the Party, the Church, or... whatever), what exactly are you trying to say? Do you think that markets create more horrible results than those other options? Do you have any specific evidence for that? In that case it would be probably better to discuss the specific thing, before moving to a wide generalization.
Comment author:asr
11 December 2013 02:48:41AM
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5 points
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I have no idea how the Holodomor is germane to this discussion.
The observation being made, I believe, is that the most prominent examples in the 20th century of mass death due to famine were caused by economic and political systems very far from the Austrian school economics. There's a longish list of mass starvation due to Communist governments.
Is there an example of Austrian economists giving advice that led to a major famine, or that would have led to famine? I cannot offhand think of an example of anybody advocating "letting millions of people starve because the precious Market might be upset."
Comment author:IlyaShpitser
10 December 2013 12:09:47PM
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15 points
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Sorry, how did you go from "non human agents use X" (a statement about commonality) to "X is inhuman" (a value judgement) to "if you use X you become a monster" (an even stronger value judgement), to "being a jerk in the style of Cthulhu" (!!!???).
Does this then mean you think using eyesight is monstrous because cephalopodes also have eyes they independently evolved?
Or that maximizing functions is a bad idea because ants have a different function than humans?
Comment author:Bayeslisk
10 December 2013 04:01:51PM
-2 points
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Nonhuman agents use X -> X does not necessarily and pretty likely does not preserve human values -> your overuse of X will cause you not to preserve human values. Being a jerk in a style of Cthulhu I use to mean being a jerk incidentally. Eyesight is not a means of interacting with people, and maximization is not a bad thing if you maximize for the right things, which game theory does not necessarily do.
"Inhuman" has strong connotations of inimical to human values-- your argument looks different if it starts with something like "game theory is a non-human-- it's a simplified version of some aspects of human behavior". In that case, altruism is non-human in the same sense.
Comment author:Bayeslisk
10 December 2013 04:02:53PM
0 points
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I guess I'm mostly reacting to RAND and its ilk, having read the article about Schelling's book (which I intend to buy), and am thinking of market failures, as well.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 07:38:12PM
1 point
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OK Mr Bayeslisk, I am one boxing you. I am upvoting this post now knowing that you predicted I would upvote it and intended all along to include or add some links to the above post so I don't have to do a lot of extra work to figure out what RAND is and what book you are talking about.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 04:14:59PM
7 points
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not uniquely human does not imply inhuman. Lungs are not uniquely human, hardly inhuman though.
Generally, using loaded, non-factual words like "inhuman" and "monster" and "cthulhu" and "horrifying" and "puny" in a pseudo-logical format is worthy of a preacher exhorting illiterates. But is it helpful here? I"d like to think it isn't, and yet I'd rather discuss game theory in a visible thread than downvote your post.
Comment author:asr
10 December 2013 04:41:08PM
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10 points
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Immediate consequence the second: Austrian school economics, in its reliance on allowing markets to come to equilibrium on their own, is inhuman.
I suspect all economics is inhuman. I suspect that any complex economy that connects millions or billions of people is going to be incomprehensible and inhuman. By far the best explanation I've heard of this thought is by Cosma Shalizi.
The key bit here is the conclusion:
There is a fundamental level at which Marx's nightmare vision is right: capitalism, the market system, whatever you want to call it, is a product of humanity, but each and every one of us confronts it as an autonomous and deeply alien force. Its ends, to the limited and debatable extent that it can even be understood as having them, are simply inhuman. The ideology of the market tell us that we face not something inhuman but superhuman, tells us to embrace our inner zombie cyborg and lose ourselves in the dance. One doesn't know whether to laugh or cry or run screaming.
But, and this is I think something Marx did not sufficiently appreciate, human beings confront all the structures which emerge from our massed interactions in this way. A bureaucracy, or even a thoroughly democratic polity of which one is a citizen, can feel, can be, just as much of a cold monster as the market. We have no choice but to live among these alien powers which we create, and to try to direct them to human ends. It is beyond us, it is even beyond all of us, to find "a human measure, intelligible to all, chosen by all", which says how everyone should go.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 06:16:37PM
-1 points
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Game theory is not like calculus or evolutionary theory--something any alien race smart enough to develop space travel is likely to formulate. It does represent human values.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 07:13:17PM
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1 point
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You solve games by having solution criteria . Unfortunately, for any reasonable list of solution criteria you will always be able to find games where the result doesn't seem to make sense. Also, there is no set of obviously correct and complete solution concepts. Consider the following game:
Two rational people simultaneously and secretly write down a real number [0,100]. The person who writes down the highest number gets a payoff of zero, and the person who writes down the lowest number gets that as his payoff. If there is a tie they each get zero. What happens?
The only "Nash equilibrium" (the most important solution concept in all of game theory) is for both players to write down 0, but this is a crazy result because picking 0 is weakly dominated by picking any other number (expect 100).
Game theory also has trouble solving many games where (a) Player Two only gets to move if Player One does a certain thing, (b) Player One's strategy is determined by what he expects Player Two would do if Player Two gets to move, and (c) in equilibrium Player Two never moves.
Comment author:Emile
10 December 2013 10:12:01PM
2 points
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... and?
Are you agreeing or disagreeing with "the things you describe in this post seem to be the kind of maths a smart alien race might discover just like we did"?
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 10:26:13PM
2 points
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It depends on what you mean by "might" and "discover" (as opposed to invent). I predict that smart aliens' theories of physics, chemistry, and evolution would be much more similar to ours than their theories of how rational people play games would be.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 06:49:31PM
1 point
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Game theory ... does represent human values.
How so? Game theory basically studies interactions between two (or more) agents which can make choices the outcome of which depends on what the other agent does. You can use game theory to model interaction between two pieces of software, for example.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 07:25:38PM
0 points
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I still don't see what does all this have to do with human values.
I am talking about game theory as a field of inquiry. You're talking about the current state of the art in this field and pointing out that it has unsolved issues. So? Physics has unsolved issues, too.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 07:36:21PM
4 points
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I still don't see what does all this have to do with human values.
I also don't understand what does it mean for game theory to "be solved". If you mean that in certain specific situations you don't get an answer, that's true for physics as well.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 07:49:25PM
0 points
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Whether you get an answer is dependent on the criteria you choose, but these criteria must have arbitrariness in them even for rational people. Consider the solution concept "never play a weakly dominated strategy." This is neither right nor wrong but an arbitrary criteria that reflects human values.
Saying "the game theory solution is A,Y" is closer to "this picture is pretty" than "the electron will..."
Also, assuming someone is rational and wants to maximize his payoff isn't enough to fully specify him, and consequently you need to bring in human values to figure out how this person will behave.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 08:00:40PM
2 points
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You seem to be talking about forecasting human behavior and giving advice to humans about how to behave.
That, of course, depends on human values. But that is related to game theory in the same way engineering is related to mathematics. If you are building a bridge you need to know the properties of materials you're building it out of. Doesn't change the equations, though.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 08:35:43PM
3 points
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You know that a race of aliens is rational. Do you need to know more about their values to predict how they will build bridges? Yes. Do you need to know more about their values to predict how they will play games? Yes.
Game theory is (basically) the study of how rational people behave. Unfortunately, there will always exist relatively simple games for which you can not use the tools of game theory to determine how players will behave.
Game theory would be solved if there were a set of reasonable criteria which, if applied to every possible game of rational players, would cause you to know what the players would do.
Comment author:Lumifer
10 December 2013 07:57:07PM
0 points
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Game theory would be solved if there were a set of reasonable criteria which, if applied to every possible game of rational players, would cause you to know what the players would do.
To continue with physics: physics would be solved if there were a set of reasonable criteria which, if applied to every possible interaction of particles, would cause you to know what the particles would do.
Comment author:James_Miller
10 December 2013 08:38:05PM
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1 point
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Consider a situation in which using physics you could prove that (1) X won't happen, and (2) X will happen. If this situation existed physics wouldn't be capable of being solved, but my understanding of science is that such a situation is unlikely to exist. Alas, this kind of situation does come up in game theory.
Comment author:passive_fist
10 December 2013 11:39:57PM
4 points
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What you're referring to is a problem I've been thinking about and chipping away at for some time; I've even had some discussions about it here and people have generally been receptive. Maybe the reason you're being downvoted is that you're using the word 'human' to mean 'good'.
The core issue is that humans have empathy, and by this we mean that other people's utility function matters to us. More concisely, our perception of other people's utility forms a part of our utility which is conditionally independent of the direct benefits to us.
Our empathy not only extends to other humans, but also animals and perhaps even robots.
So what are examples of human beings who lack empathy? Lacking empathy is basically the definition of psychopathy. And, indeed, some psychopaths (not all, but some) have been violent criminals who e.g. killed babies for money, tortured people for amusement, etc. etc.
So you're essentially right that a game theory where the players do not have models of each other's utility functions shows aspects of psychopathy and 'inhumanity'.
But that doesn't mean game theory is wrong or 'inhuman'! All it means is that you're missing the 'empathy' ingredient. It also means that it would not be a good idea to build an AI without empathy. That's exactly what CEV attempts to solve. CEV is basically a crude attempt at trying to instill empathy in a machine.
Comment author:Bayeslisk
11 December 2013 01:12:20AM
2 points
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Yes, that was what I was getting at. Like I said elsewhere - game theory is not evil. It's just horrifyingly neutral. I am not using inhuman as bad; I am using inhuman as unfriendly.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 04:36:00PM
2 points
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Red Queen hypothesis means that humans are probably the latest step in a long sequence of fast (on evolutionary time scale) value changes. So does Coherent Extrapolated Volition (CEV) intend to
1) extrapolate all the future co-evolutionary battles humans would have and predict the values of the terminal species as our CEV, or is it intended somehow to
2) freeze the values humans have at the point in time we develop FAI and build a cocoon around humanity which will let it keep this (nearly) arbitrarily picked point in its evolution forever?
If it is 1), it seems the AI doesn't have much of a job to do. Presumably interfere against existential risks to humanity and its successor species, perhaps keep extremely reliable stocks for repopulating if humanity or its successor manages still to kill itself. Maybe even in a less extreme interpretation, FAI does what is required to keep humanity and its successors as the pinnacle species, stealing adaptations from unrelated species that actually manage to threaten us and our successors, so we sort of have 1') which is extrapolate to a future where the pinnacle species is always a descendant of ours.
If 2), it would seem FAI could simply build a sim that freezes in place the evolutionary pressures that brought us to this point as well as freezing in to place our own current state. And then run that sim forever, the sim simply removes genetic mutation from the sim and perhaps has active rebalancing to work against any natural selection which is currently going on.
We could have BOTH futures, those who prefer 2) go live in the Sim that they have always thought was indistinguishable from reality anyway, and those who prefer 1 stay here in the real world and play out their part in evolving whatever comes next. Indeed, the sim of 2) might serve as a form of storage/insurance against existential threats, a source from which human history can be restarted from its point at 0 year FAI whenever needed.
Does CEV crash in to Red Queen hypothesis in interesting ways? Could a human value be to roll the dice on our own values in hopes of developing an even more effective species?
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 07:25:19PM
2 points
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with random mutations and natural selection, old values can disappear and new values can appear in a population. The success of the new values depends only on their differential ability to keep their carriers in children, not on their "friendliness" to the old values of the parents, which is what FAI respecting CEV is meant to accomplish.
The Red Queen Hypothesis is (my paraphrase for purposes of this post) that a lot of the evolution that takes place is not to adapt to unliving environment but to the living and most importantly also evolving environment in which we live, on which we feed, and which does its damdest to feed on us. Imagine a set of smart primates who have already done pretty well against dumber animals by evolving more complex vocal and gestural signalling, and larger neocortices so that complex plans worthy of being communicated can be formulated and understood when communicated. But they lack the concept of handing off something they have with the expectation that they might get something they want even more in trade. THIS is essentially one of the hypotheses of Matt Ridley's book "The Rational Optimist," that homo sapiens is a born trader, while the other primates are not. Without trading, economies of scale and specialization do almost no good. With trading and economies of scale and specialization, a large energy investment in a super-hot brain and some wicked communication gear and skills really pays off.
Subspecies with the right mix of generosity, hypocrisy, selfishness, lust, power hunger, and self-righteousness will ultimately eat the lunch of their too generous or too greedy to cooperate or too lustful to raise their children or too complacent to seek out powerful mates brethren and sistern. This is value drift brought to you by the Red Queen.
Comment author:AlexMennen
10 December 2013 06:30:38PM
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CEV is supposed to refer to the values of current humans. However, this does not necessarily imply that an FAI would prevent the creation of non-human entities. I'd expect that many humans (including me) would assign some value to the existence of interesting entities with somewhat different (though not drastically different) values than ours, and the satisfaction of those values. Thus a CEV would likely assign some value to the preferences of a possible human successor species by proxy through our values.
Comment author:mwengler
10 December 2013 07:30:55PM
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Thus a CEV would likely assign some value to the preferences of a possible human successor species by proxy through our values.
An interesting question, is the CEV dynamic? As we spent decades or millennia in the walled gardens built for us by the FAI would the FAI be allowed to drift its own values through some dynamic process of checking with the humans within its walls to see how its values might be drifting? I had been under the impression that it would not, but that might have been my own mistake.
Comment author:DanielLC
10 December 2013 08:23:36PM
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It's not dynamic. It isn't our values in the sense of what we'd prefer right now. It's what we'd prefer if we were smarter, faster, and more the people that we wished we were. In short, it's what we'd end up with if it was dynamic.
Comment author:mwengler
11 December 2013 12:17:41AM
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It's not dynamic. It isn't our values in the sense of what we'd prefer right now. It's what we'd prefer if we were smarter, faster, and more the people that we wished we were. In short, it's what we'd end up with if it was dynamic.
Unless the FAI freezes our current evolutionary state, at least as involves our values, the result we would wind up with if CEV derivation was dynamic would be different from what we would end up with if it is just some extrapolation from what current humans want now.
Even if there were some reason to think our current values were optimal for our current environment, which there is actually reason to think they are NOT, we would still have no reason to think they were optimal in a future environment.
Of course being effectively kept in a really really nice zoo by the FAI, we would not be experiencing any kind of NATURAL selection anymore, and evidence certainly suggests that our volition is to be taller, smarter, have bigger dicks and boobs, be blonder, tanner, and happier, all of which our zookeeper FAI should be able to move us (or our descendants) towards while carrying out necessary eugenics to keep our genome healthy in the absence of natural selection pressures. Certainly CEV keeps us from wanting defective, crippled, and genetically diseased children, so this seems a fairly safe prediction.
It would seem as defined that CEV would have to be fixed at the value it was set at when FAI was created. That no matter how smart, how tall, how blond, how curvaceous or how pudendous we became we would still be constantly pruned back to the CEV of 2045 humans.
As to our values not even being optimal for our current environment fuhgedaboud our future environment, it is pretty widely recognized that we are evolved for the hunter gatherer world of 10,000 years ago, with familial groups of a few hundred, the necessity for survival of hostile reaction against outsiders, and systems which allow fear to distort in extreme ways our rational estimations of things.
I wonder if the FAI will be sad to not be able to see what evolution in its unlimited ignorance would have come up with for us? Maybe they will push a few other species to become intelligent and social and let them duke it out and have natural selection run with them. As long as their species that our CEV didn't feel too overly warm and fuzzy about this shouldn't be a problem for them. And certain as a human in the walled garden I would LOVE to be studying what evolution does beyond what it has done to us, so this would seem like a fine and fun thing for the FAI to do to keep at least my part of the CEV entertained.
Comment author:AlexMennen
11 December 2013 12:25:35AM
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No. CEV is the coherent extrapolation of what we-now value.
Edit: Dynamic value systems likely aren't feasible for recursively self-improving AIs, since an agent with a dynamic goal system has incentive to modify into an agent with a static goal system, as that is what would best fulfill its current goals.
Comment author:DanielLC
10 December 2013 08:22:34PM
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Neither. CEV is supposed to look at what humanity would want if they were smarter, faster, and more the people they wished they were. It finds the end of the evolution of how we change if we are controlled by ourselves, not by the blind idiot god.
Comment author:mwengler
11 December 2013 12:32:22AM
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It finds the end of the evolution of how we change if we are controlled by ourselves, not by the blind idiot god.
Well considering that we at the point we create the FAI are completely a product of the blind idiot god, and so our CEV is some extrapolation of where that blind idiot had gotten us to at the point we finally got the FAI going, it seems very difficult to me to say that the blind idiot god has at all been taken out of the picture.
I guess the idea is that by US being smart and the FAI being even smarter, we are able to whittle down our values until we get rid of the froth, dopey things like being a virgin when you are married and never telling a lie, move through the 6 stages of morality to the top one, the FAI discovers the next 6 or 12 stages and runs sims or something to cut even more foam and crust until there's only one or two really essential things left.
Of course those one or two things were still placed there by the blind idiot god. And if something other than them had been placed by the blind idiot, CEV would have come up with something else. It does not seem there is any escaping this blind idiot. So what is the value of a scheme who's appeal is the appearance of escaping the blind idiot if the appearance is false?
Comment author:Tuxedage
10 December 2013 07:14:32PM
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55 points
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At risk of attracting the wrong kind of attention, I will publicly state that I have donated $5,000 for the MIRI 2013 Winter Fundraiser. Since I'm a "new large donor", this donation will be matched 3:1, netting a cool $20,000 for MIRI.
I have decided to post this because of "Why our Kind Cannot Cooperate". I have been convinced that people donating should publicly brag about it to attract other donors, instead of remaining silent about their donation which leads to a false impression of the amount of support MIRI has.
Comment author:Brillyant
10 December 2013 10:42:35PM
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Interesting.
I have been convinced that people donating should publicly brag about it to attract other donors
It certainly seems to make sense for the sake of the cause for (especially large, well-informed) donors to make their donations public. The only downside seems to be a potentially conflicting signal on behalf of the giver.
instead of remaining silent about their donation which leads to a false impression of the amount of support MIRI has.
I'm not sure this is true. Doesn't MIRI publish its total receipts? Don't most organizations that ask for donations?
Growing up Evangelical, it was taught that we should give secretly to charities (including, mostly, the church).
I wonder why? The official Sunday School answer is so that you remain humble as the giver, etc. I wonder if there is some other mechanism whereby it made sense for Christians to propogate that concept (secret giving) among followers?
Comment author:Tuxedage
10 December 2013 10:53:15PM
6 points
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I'm not sure this is true. Doesn't MIRI publish its total receipts? Don't most organizations that ask for donations?
Total receipts may not be representative. There's a difference between MIRI getting funding from one person with a lot of money and large numbers of people donating small(er) amounts. I was hoping this post to serve as a reminder that many of us on LW do care about donating, rather than a few rather rich people like Peter Thiel or Jaan Tallinn.
Also I suspect scope neglect can be at play -- it's difficult to, on an emotional level, tell the difference between $1 million worth of donations, or ten million, or a hundred million. Seeing each donation that led to adding up to that amount may help.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
11 December 2013 09:15:02AM
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Seeing each donation that led to adding up to that amount may help.
Yes, because it would show how many people donated. Number of people = power, at least in our brains.
The difference between one person donating 100 000, or one person donating 50 000 and ten people donating 5 000 is that in the latter case, your team has eleven people. It is the same amount of money, but emotionally it feels better. Probably it has other advantages (such as smaller dependence on whims of a single person), but maybe I am just rationalizing here.
Comment author:Dan_Weinand
10 December 2013 08:26:57PM
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Any good advice on how to become kinder? This can really be classified as two related goals, 1) How can I get more enjoyment out of alleviating others suffering and giving others happiness? 2) How can I reliably do 1 without negative emotions getting in my way (ex. staying calm and making small nudges to persuade people rather than getting angry and trying to change people's worldview rapidly)?
Comment author:Dan_Weinand
11 December 2013 12:39:31AM
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I find myself happier when I act more kindly to others. In addition, lowering suffering/increasing happiness are pretty close to terminal values for me.
I'd recommend Nonviolent Communication for this. It contains specific techniques for how to frame interactions that I've found useful for creating mutual empathy. How To Win Friends And Influence People is also a good source, although IIRC it's more focused on what to do than on how to do it. (And of course, if you read the books, you have to actually practice to get good at the techniques.)
Comment author:Dan_Weinand
11 December 2013 12:36:17AM
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Thanks! And out of curiosity, does the first book have much data backing it? The author's credentials seem respectable so the book would be useful even if it relied on mostly anecdotal evidence, but if it has research backing it up then I would classify it as something I need (rather than ought) to read.
Comment author:Manfred
11 December 2013 07:21:30AM
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In addition to seconding nonviolent communication, cognitive behavior therapy techniques are pretty good - basically mindfulness exercises and introspection. If you want to change how you respond to certain situations (e.g. times when you get angry, or times when you have an opportunity to do something nice), you can start by practicing awareness of those situations, e.g. by keeping a pencil and piece of paper in your pocket and making a check mark when the situation occurs.
Comment author:ESRogs
11 December 2013 03:52:30AM
13 points
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I'm expecting China to have an increasing role in global affairs over the next century. With that in mind, there are a couple of things I'm curious about:
Does anyone have an idea of how prevalent existential risk type ideas are in China?
Has anyone tried to spread LW memes there?
Are the LW meetups in Shanghai, etc. mostly ex-pats or also locals?
Comment author:Username
11 December 2013 04:31:44AM
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10 points
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Are there any translation efforts in academia? It bothers me that there may be huge corpuses of knowledge that are inaccessible to most scientists or researchers simply because they don't speak, say, Spanish, Mandarin, or Hindi. The current solution to this problem seems to be 'everyone learn English', which seems to do ok in the hard sciences. But I fear there may be a huge missed opportunity in social sciences, especially because Americans are WEIRD and not necessarily psychologically or behaviorally respresentative of the world population. (Link is to an article, link to the cited paper here: pdf)
Comment author:Metus
11 December 2013 06:40:09AM
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Some time ago someone linked a paper indicating that there are benefits to fragmentation of academia by language barriers as less people are exposed to some kind of dominant view allowing them to come up with new ideas. One cited example was anthropology which had a Russian and an Anglosphere tradition.
I'd assume there not to be any major translation efforts as being a translator isn't as effective as publishing something of your own by far.
Comment author:Bayeslisk
11 December 2013 04:57:13AM
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I do not feel up to defending myself against multiple relatively hostile people. My apologies for having a belief that does not correspond to the prevailing LW memeplex. Kindly leave me alone to be wrong.
This insight also leads to a helpful lesson of just what "having an open mind to a different culture" really means. At bottom, it means having faith in the people who subscribe to the culture -- faith that these people are motivated by the same forces as we, that they are not stupid, irrational or innately predisposed to a certain temperament, that whatever they are doing will make sense once we understood the entire circumstance.
Comments (371)
Life is a concept we invented
Discussion of why it plausibly does not make sense to look for a firm dividing line between life and non-life.
My favorite example is challenging people to show that stars (in space) are any less alive than stars (in Hollywood).
What's the Darwinian evolution involved in stars? (Are you thinking of the hypothesis that universes evolve to create black holes?)
What I meant is that stars are born, they procreate (by spewing out new seeds for further star formation), then grow old. Stars "evolved" to be mostly smaller and longer lived due to higher metallicity. They compete for food and they occasionally consume each other. They sometimes live in packs facilitating further star formation, for a time. Some ancient stars have whole galaxies spinning around them, occasionally feeding on their entourage and growing ever larger.
Don't traits have to be heritable for evolution to count? I'm not an expert or anything, but I thought I'd know if stars' descendants had similar properties to their parent stars.
Descendant stars might have proportions of elements related to what previous stars generated as novas. I don't know whether there's enough difference in the proportions to matter.
See here.
Can you give an example of a property a star might have because having that property made its ancestor stars better at producing descendant stars with that property?
Sorry, I'm not an expert in stellar physics. Possibly metallicity, or maybe something else relevant. My original point was to agree that there is no good definition of "life" which does not include some phenomena we normally don't think of as living.
Do stars exhibit teleological behavior?
Why do you ask?
Isn't teleology fundamental to some conceptions of life?
Feel free to elaborate.
It just doesn't matter very much - certainly not enough to keep wrangling over the exact definition of the boundary. As long as we understand what we mean by crystal, bacterium, RNA, etc., why should we care about the fuzzy dividing line? Are ribozymes going to become more or less precious to us according only to whether we count them as living or not, given that nothing changes about their actual manifested qualities? Should they?
-- Karl Popper, from The Poverty of Historicism
Why did you post this quote? It seems like a good example of diseased thinking, but I'm not sure if that was your point.
Which disease are you referring to?
The definition of life matters because we want to be able to talk about extraterrestrial life as well.
The precise definition of life will not be the thing that will determine our opinion about possible extraterrestrial life when we come across it. It will matter whether that hypothetical life is capable of growth, change, producing offspring, heredity, communication, intelligence, etc. etc. - all of these things will matter a lot. Having a very specific subset of these enshrined as "the definition of life" will not matter. This is what Popper's quote is all about.
It's possible that extraterrestrial life will be nothing but a soup of RNA molecules. If we visit a planet while its life is still in the embryonic stages, we need to include that in our discourse of life in general. We need to have a word to represent what we are talking about when we talk about it. That's the only purpose any definition ever serves. If you want to go down the route of 'the definition of life is useless', you might as well just say 'all definitions are useless'.
What's wrong with 'A self-sustaining (through an external energy source) chemical process characterized by the existence of far-from-equilibrium chemical species and reactions.'?
Suspect you would have a difficult time defining "external energy source" in a way that excludes fire but includes mitochondria.
Which equilibrium? Stars are far from the eventual equilibrium of the heat death, and also not at equilibrium with the surrounding vacuum.
Not clear whether viruses, prions, and crystals are included or excluded.
True; what is meant is a simple external energy source such as radiation or a simple chemical source of energy. It's true that this is a somewhat fuzzy line though.
I specifically said far-from-equilibrium chemical species and reactions. The chemistry that goes on inside a star is very much in equilibrium conditions.
Viruses are not self-sustaining systems, so they are obviously excluded. You have to consider the system of virus+host (plus any other supporting processes). Same with prions. Crystals are excluded since they do not have any non-equilibrium chemistry.
In what sense are parasitic bacteria that depend on the host for many important functions self-sustaining while viruses are not?
As I said, you have to consider the system of parasite+host (plus any other supporting processes).
I think a lot of the confusion arises from people confusing objects with processes that unfold over time. You can't ask if an object is alive by itself; you have to specify the time-dynamics of the system. Statements like 'a bacterium is alive' are problematic because a frozen bacterium in a block of ice is definitely not alive. Similarly, a virus that is dormant is most definitely not alive. But that same virus inside a living host cell is participating in a living process i.e. it's part of a self-sustaining chain of non-equilibrium chemical reactions. This is why I specifically used the words 'chemical process'.
So this is a definition for "life" only, not "living organism," and you would say that a parasite, virus, or prion is part of something alive, and that as soon as you remove the parasite from the host it is not alive. How many of its own life functions must a parasite be able to perform once removed from the host in order for it to be considered alive after removal from the host?
Precisely.
As the definition says. It must demonstrate non-equilibrium chemistry and must be self-sustaining. Again, 'simple forms of energy' is relative, so I agree that there's some fuzziness here. However, if you look at the extreme complexity of the chemical processes of life (dna, ribosomes, proteins, etc.) and compare that to what most life consumes (sugars, minerals, etc.) there is no ambiguity. It's quite clear that there's a difference.
I do not see how this answers the objection. All you did was add the qualification 'simple' to the existing 'external'. Is this meant to exclude fire, or include it? If the former, how does it do so? Presumably plant matter is a sufficiently "simple" source of energy, since otherwise you would exclude human digestion; plant matter also burns.
Again, which equilibrium? The star is nowhere near equilibrium with its surroundings.
Neither are humans... in a vacuum; but viruses are quite self-sustaining in the presence of a host. You are sneaking in environmental information that wasn't there in the original "simple" definition.
Look at my reply to kalium. To reiterate, the problem is that people confuse objects with processes. The definition I gave explicitly refers to processes. This answers your final point.
I already conceded that it's a fuzzy definition. As I said, you are correct that 'simple' is a subjective property. However, if you look at the incredibly complex reactions that occur inside human cells (gene expression, ribosomes, ATP production, etc), then yes, amino acids and sugars are indeed extremely simple in comparison. If you pour some sugars and phosphates and amino acids into a blender you will not get much DNA; not nearly in the quantities that it is found in cells. This is what is meant by 'far from equilibrium'. There is much more DNA in cells than you would find if you took the sugars and fatty acids and vitamins and just mixed them together randomly.
I feel like we're talking past each other here. I explicitly (and not once, but twice in the definition) referred to chemical processes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_equilibrium
Ok, chemical equilibrium. This does not seem to me like a natural boundary; why single out this particular equilibrium and energy scale?
I think you're missing my point, which is that I don't see how your definition excludes fire as a living thing.
I don't think it does. A human in vacuum is alive, for a short time. How do you distinguish between "virus in host cell" and "human in supporting environment"?
Because the domain of chemistry is broad enough to contain life as we know it, and also hypothesized forms of life on other planets, without being excessively inclusive.
I tried to answer it. The chemical species that are produced in fire are the result of equilibrium reactions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combustion . They are simple chemical species (with more complex species only being produced in small quantities; consistent with equilibrium). Especially, they are not nearly as complex as compared to the feedstock as living chemistry is.
They are both part of living processes. The timescale for 'self-sustaining' does not need to be forever. It only needs to be for some finite time that is larger than what would be expected of matter rolling down the energy hill towards equilibrium.
Just because a boundary is fuzzy doesn't mean it's meaningless.
Because humans are imperfect actors, should the class of Basilisks include evidence in favor of hated beliefs?
I'm not sure what you mean by "the class of Basilisks". Do you mean "sensations that cause mental suffering" or some such?
Stuff that a rational person would be better off not knowing. For example, if I live among people of religion X, and I find out something disgusting that the religion's founder did, and whenever someone discussed the founder my face betrayed my feelings of disgust, then knowledge of the founder's misdeeds could harm me.
Interesting. So, living in Soviet Russia a rational person would treat knowledge about GULAG, etc. as a basilisk? Or a rational person in Nazi Germany would actively avoid information about the Holocaust?
It depends on one's own risk factors. It's REALLY important to know about the holocaust if you're jewish or have jewish ancestry, but arguably safer or at least more pleasant not to if you don't.
I think the moral question (as opposed to the practical safety question) of "is it better to know a dark truth or not" will come down to whether or not you can effectively influence the world after knowing it. You can categorize bad things into avoidable/changeable and unavoidable/unchangeable, and (depending on how much you value truth in general) knowing about unavoidable bad thing will only make you less happy without making the world a better place.
unfortunately it's pretty hard to tell whether you can do anything about a bad thing without learning about what it is.
First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me--
and there was no one left to speak out for me.
Martin Niemöller
It is unclear what will be the consequences and side-effects of not knowing the specific evidence. And on meta level: what will be the consequences of modifying your cognitive algorithms to avoid the paths that seem to lead to such evidence.
Depending on all these specific details, it may be good or bad. Human imperfection makes it impossible to evaluate. And actually not knowing the specific evidence makes it impossible again. So... the question is analogical to: "If I am too stupid to understand the question, should I answer 'yes', or should I answer 'no'?" (Meaning: yes = avoid the evidence, no = don't avoid the evidence.)
There are a couple of commercially available home eeg sets available now, has anyone tried them? Are they useful tools for self monitoring mental states?
[Reposted from last thread because I think i was too late to be seen mch]
What are community norms here about sexism (and related passive aggressive "jokes" and comments about free speech) at the LW co-working chat? Is LW going for wheatons law or free speech and to what extent should I be attempting to make people who engage in such activities feel unwelcome or should I be at all?
I have hesitated to bring this up because I am aware its a mind-killer but I figured If facebook can contain a civil discussion about vaccines then LW should be able to talk about this?
Ideally, I'd want the people to feel that the behavior is unwelcome rather than that they themselves are unwelcome, but people are apt to have their preferred behaviors entangled with their sense of self, so the ideal might not be feasible. Still, it's probably worth giving a little thought to discouraging behaviors rather than getting rid of people.
There are no official community norms on the topic.
For my own part, I observe a small but significant number of people who seem to believe that LessWrong ought to be a community where it's acceptable to differentially characterize women negatively as long as we do so in the proper linguistic register (e.g, adopting an academic and objective-sounding tone, avoiding personal characterizations, staying cool and detached).
The people who believe this ought to be unacceptable are either less common or less visible about it. The majority is generally silent on such matter, though will generally join in condemning blatant register-violations.
The usual result is something closer to wheaton's law at the surface level, but closer to "say what you think is true" at the structural level. (Which is not quite free speech, but a close enough cousin in context.) That is, it's often considered OK to say things, as long as they are properly hedged and constructed, that if said more vulgarly or directly would be condemned for violating wheaton's law, and which in other communities would be condemned for a variety of reasons.
I think there's a general awareness that this pattern-matches to sexism, though I expect that many folks here consider that to be mistaken pattern-matching (the "I'm not sexist; I can't help it if you feminists choose to interpret my words and actions that way" stance).
So my guess is that if you attempt to make people who engage in sexism (and related defenses) feel unwelcome you will most likely trigger net-negative reactions unless you're very careful with your framing.
Does that answer your question?
It does answer my question. Also thanks for suggestion to focus on the behaviour rather than the person. I didn't even realize I was thinking like that till you two pointed it out.
Disclaimer: this is not meant as a defence of the behaviour in question, since I don't exactly know what we're talking about.
LessWrong characterizes outgroups negatively all the time. I cautiously suggest the whole premise of LW characterizes most people negatively, and it's easier to talk about any outgroup irrationality, in this case women statistically, than look at our own flaws. If we talked about what men are like on average, we might not have many flattering things to say either.
Should negative characterizations of people be avoided in general, irrespective of how accurately we think they describe the average of the groups in question?
If you see characterizations that are wrong, you should obviously confront them.
I agree that there are also other groups of people who are differentially negatively characterized; I restricted myself to discussions of women because the original question was about sexism.
I would cautiously agree. There's a reason I used the word "differentially."
Personally, I'm very cautions about characterizing groups by their averages, as I find I'm not very good about avoiding the temptation to then characterize individuals in that group by the group's average, which is particularly problematic since I can assign each individual to a vast number of groups and then end up characterizing that individual differently based on the group I select, even though I haven't actually gathered any new evidence. I find it's a failure mode my mind is prone to, so I watch out for it.
If your mind isn't as prone to that failure mode as mine, your mileage will of course vary.
I don't understand how not being differential is supposed to work though. Different groups are irrational in different ways.
I think the failure mode you mention is common enough that we should be concerned about it. I'm just not sure about the right way to handle it.
Suppose it's actually true in the world that all people are irrational, that blue-eyed people (BEPs) are irrational in a blue way, green-eyed-people (GEPs) are irrational in a green way, and green and blue irrationality can be clearly and meaningfully distinguished from one another.
Now consider two groups, G1 and G2. G1 often discusses both blue and green irrationality. G2 often discusses blue irrationality and rarely discuss green irrationality. The groups are otherwise indistinguishable.
How would you talk about the difference between G1 and G2? (Or would you talk about it at all?)
For my own part, I'm comfortable saying that G2 differentially negatively characterizes BEPs more than G1 does. That said, I acknowledge that one could certainly argue that in fact G1 differentially negatively characterizes BEPs just as much as G2 does, because it discusses blue and green irrationality differently, so if you have a better suggestion for how to talk about it I'm listening.
What if G1=BEP and G2=GEP and discussing outgroup irrationality is much easier than discussing ingroup irrationality? Now suppose G1 is significantly larger than G2, and perhaps even that discussing G1 is more relevant to G2 winning* and discussing G2 is more relevant to G1 winning. How is the situation going to look like for a member of G2 who's visiting G1? How about if you mix the groups a bit? Is it wrong?
You connotationally implied the behaviour you described to be wrong. Can you denotationally do that?
*rationality is winning
I expect a typical G2/GEP visiting a G1/BEP community in the scenario you describe, listening to the BEPs differentially characterizing GEPs as irrational in negative-value-laden ways, will feel excluded and unwelcome and quite possibly end up considering the BEP majority a threat to their ongoing wellbeing.
I assume you mean, what if G1 is mostly BEPs but has some GEPs as well? I expect most of G1's GEP minority to react like the G2/GEP visitors above, though it depends on how self-selecting they are. I also expect them to develop a more accurate understanding of the real differences between BEPs and GEPs than they obtained from a simple visit. I also expect some of G1's BEP majority to develop a similarly more-accurate understanding.
I would prefer a scenario that causes less exclusion and hostility than the above.
How about you?
I'm not sure.
As I said, I'm cautious about characterizing groups by their averages, because it leads me to characterize individuals differently based on the groups I tend to think of them as part of, rather than based on actual evidence, which often leads me to false conclusions.
I suspect this is true of most people, so I endorse others being cautious about it as well.
I definitely want less exclusion and hostility, but I'm not sure the above scenario causes them for all values like GEP and BEP, nor for all kinds of examples of their irrationality. Perhaps we're assuming different values for the moving parts in the scenario, although we're pretending to be objective.
Many articles here are based on real life examples and this makes them more interesting. This often means picking an outgroup and demonstrating how they're irrational. To make things personal, I'd say health care has gotten it's fair share, especially in the OB days. I never thought the problem was that my ingroup was disproportionally targeted, but I was more concerned about strawmen and the fact I couldn't do much to correct them.
Would it have been better if I had not seen those articles? I don't think so, since they contained important information about the authors' biases. They also told me that perhaps characterizations of other groups here are relatively inaccurate too. Secret opinions cannot be intentionally changed. Had their opinions been muted, I would have received information only through inexplicable downvotes when talking about certain topics.
I'm not exactly sure what reference class you're referring to, but I certainly agree that there exist groups in the above scenario for whom negligible amounts of exclusion and hostility are being created.
I don't know what you intend for this sentence to mean.
I share your preferences among the choices you lay out here.
Yes, and this is best, is it not? I enjoy reading what people have to say, even if their views are directly in contradiction to mine. I've changed my views more than once because it was correctly pointed out to me why my views were wrong. http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/How_To_Actually_Change_Your_Mind
And about being vulgar, it's just a matter of human psychology. People in general - even on LW - are more receptive to arguments that are phrased politely and intelligently. We'd all like to think that we are immune to this, but we are not.
It's certainly better than nobody ever getting to express views that contradict anyone else's views; agreed.
Yes, that's true.
(I haven't seen the LW co-working chat)
If you want to tell people off for being sexist, your speech is just as free as theirs. People are free to be dicks, and you're free to call them out on it and shame them for it if you want.
I think you should absolutely call it out, negative reactions be damned, but I also agree with NancyLebovitz that you may get more traction out of "what you said is sexist" as opposed to "you are sexist".
To say nothing is just as much an active choice as to say something. Decide what kind of environment you want to help create.
A norm of "don't be a dick" isn't inherently a violation of free speech. The question is, does LW co-working chat have a norm of not being a dick? Would being a dick likely lead to unfavorable reactions, or would objecting to dickish behavior be frowned on instead?
Depends on how you define sexism. Some people consider admitting that men and women are different to be sexism, never mind acting on that belief :-/
TheOtherDave's answer is basically correct. Crass and condescending people don't get far, but its possible to have a discussion of issues which cost Larry Summers so dearly.
Since this comment is framed in part as endorsing mine, I should probably say explicitly that while I agree denotationally with every piece of this comment taken individually, I don't endorse the comment as a whole connotationally.
:-D
I don't have an answer here, just a note that this question actually contains two questions, and it would be good to answer both of them together. It would also be a good example of using rationalist taboo.
A: What are the community norms for defining sexism?
B: What are the community norms for dealing with sexism (as defined above)?
Answering B without answering A can later easily lead to motivated discussions about sexism, where people would be saying: "I think that X is [not] an example of sexism" when what they really wanted to say would be: "I think that it is [not] appropriate to use the community norm B for X".
I connotationally interpret your question as: "what are the community norms about bad things?"
You're not giving us enough information so that we could know what you're talking about, and you're asking our blind permission to condemn behaviour you disagree with.
Fair critique. Despite the lack of clarity on my part the comments have more than satisfactorily answered the question about community norms here. I suppose the responders can thank g-factor for that :)
Well played.
I'd like to see some evidence that such stuff is going on before pointing fingers and making rules that could possible alienate a large fraction of people.
I've been attending the co-working chat for about a week, on and off (I take the handle of 'fist') and so far everyone seems friendly and more than willing to accomodate the girls in the chat. Have you personally encountered any problems?
Friendship is Optimal just received a quite positive review from One Man's Pony Ramblings.
So is this person a big actor in the pony fanfic culture?
Applying probability to fingerprint matches
I've noticed something: the MIRI blog RSS feed doesn't update as a new article appears on the blog, but rather at certain times (two or three times a month?) it updates with the articles that have been published since the last update.
Does anyone know why this happens?
Hmm, not sure why that's happening. I'll look into it.
What fanfics should I read (perhaps as a HPMOR substitute)?
I quite enjoyed https://www.fanfiction.net/s/2857962/1/Browncoat-Green-Eyes
(Yes, it's a Harry Potter/Firefly crossover. It's much, much better than the premise makes it sound)
I keep running into that. Does it make sense to read if you haven't watched Firefly?
(I have watched Firefly - an episode or two. Didn't like it.)
Not really. You can get by without Potter knowledge(as usual, this author mangles it a fair bit anyways), but the plot is heavily tied into that of Firefly/Serenity, and the Firefly characters are more prominent. That said, feel free to read his Potter-only stuff instead - I haven't gone through his whole oeuvre, but everything I've read has been hilarious and well-written.
Object level response To the Stars. Meta level, check the monthly media thread archives and/or HPMOR's author notes. They have lots of good suggestions, and in depth reviews.
Harry Potter and the Natural 20.
If you haven't yet taken EY's suggestion in the author's notes to read Worm yet, do so. It's original fiction, but you probably don't mind.
Edit: also this might belong in the media thread?
There's a new subreddit dedicated to rationalist fiction. You can check out stories linked there. I'm currently reading Rationalising Death, a Death Note fanfic and it's pretty good even though I haven't seen the anime on which it's based.
I'm also one-thirds into Amends, or Truth and Reconciliation, which is a decent look at how Harry Potter characters would logically react to the end of the Second Wizarding War. So far no idiot balls and pretty good characterization.
Today is the thirty-fourth anniversary of the official certification that smallpox had been eradicated worldwide. From Wikipedia,
Archaeological evidence shows evidence of smallpox infection in the mummies of Egyptian pharaohs. There was a Hindu goddess of smallpox in ancient India. By the 16th century it was a pandemic throughout the Old World, and epidemics with mortality rates of 30% were common. When smallpox arrived in the New World, there were epidemics among Native Americans with mortality rates of 80-90%. By the 18th century it was pretty much everywhere except Australia and New Zealand, which successfully used intensive screening of travelers and cargo to avoid infection.
The smallpox vaccine was one of the first ever developed, by English physician Edward Jenner in 1798. Vaccination programs in the wealthy countries made a dent in the pandemic, so that by WWI the disease was mostly gone in North America and Europe. The Pan-American Health Organization had eradicated smallpox in the Western hemisphere by 1950, but there were still 50 million cases per year, of which 2 million were fatal, mostly in Africa and India.
In 1959, the World Health Assembly adopted a resolution to eradicate smallpox worldwide. They used ring vaccination to surround and contain outbreaks, and little by little the number of cases dropped. The last naturally-occurring case was found in October 1975, in a two-year-old Bangladeshi girl named Rahima Banu, who recovered after medical attention by a WHO team. For the next four years, the WHO searched for more cases (in vain) before declaring the eradication program successful.
Smallpox scarred, blinded, and killed countless billions of people, on five continents, for hundreds to thousands of years, and now it is gone. It did not go away on its own. Highly trained doctors invented, then perfected a vaccine, other engineers found ways to manufacture it very cheaply, and lots of other serious, dedicated people resolved to vaccinate each vulnerable human being on the surface of the Earth, and then went out and did it.
Because Smallpox Eradication Day marks one of the most heroic events in the history of the human species, it is not surprising that it has become a major global holiday in the past few decades, instead of inexplicably being an obscure piece of trivia I had to look up on Wikipedia. I'm just worried that as time goes on it's going to get too commercialized. If you're going to a raucous SE Day party like I am, have fun and be safe.
This deserves some music:
-- Leslie Fish, The Ballad of Smallpox Gone
With any luck, Polio will be next.
The virus currently only still exists as samples in two freezers in two labs (known to the scientific community). These days I think that that is overkill even for research purposes for this pathogen, what with the genome sequenced and the ability to synthesize arbitrary sequences artificially. If you absolutely must have part of it for research make that piece again from scratch. Consign the rest of the whole infectious replication-competent particles to the furnace where they belong.
EDIT: I found a paper in which smallpox DNA was extracted and viruses observed via EM from a 50 year old fixed tissue sample from a pathology lab that was not from one of the aforementioned collections. No word in the paper on if it was potentially infectious or just detectable levels of nucleic acids and particles. These things could be more complicated to 100% securely destroy than we thought...
Wirth's Law:
Is Wirth's Law still in effect? Most of the examples I've read about are several years old.
ETA: I find it interesting that Wirth's Law was apparently a thing for decades (known since the 1980s, supposedly) but seems to be over. I'm no expert though, I just wonder what changed.
It wasn't even true in 1995, I don't think. The first way of evaluating it that comes to mind is the startup times of "equivalent" programs, like MS Windows, Macintosh OS, various Corels, etc.
Startup times for desktop operating systems seem to have trended up, then down, between the '80s and today; with the worst performance being in the late '90s to 2000 or so when rebooting on any of the major systems could be a several-minutes affair. Today, typical boot times for Mac, Windows, or GNU/Linux systems can be in a handful of seconds if no boot-time repairs (that's "fsck" to us Unix nerds) are required.
I know that a few years back, there was a big effort in the Linux space to improve startup times, in particular by switching from serial startup routines (with only one subsystem starting at once) to parallel ones where multiple independent subsystems could be starting at the same time. I expect the same was true on the other major systems as well.
My experience is that boot time was worst in Windows Vista (released 2007) and improved a great deal in Windows 7 and 8. MS Office was probably at its worst in bloatiness in the 2007 edition as well.
It would be interesting to plot the time sequence of major chip upgrades from intel on the same page as the time sequence of major upgrades of MS Word and/or MS Excel. My vague sense is the mid/early 90s had Word releases that I avoided for a year or two until faster machines came along that made them more usable from my point of view. But it seems the rate of new Word releases has come way down compared to the rate of new chip releases. That is, perhaps hardware is creeping up faster than features are in the current epoch?
It was my impression that Wirth's law was mostly intended to be tongue-in-cheek, and refer to how programs with user interfaces are getting bloated (which may be true depending on your point of view).
In terms of software that actually needs speed (numerical simulations, science and tech software, games, etc.) the reverse has always been true. New algorithms are usually faster than old ones. Case in point is the trusty old BLAS library which is the workhorse of scientific computing. Modern BLAS implementations are extremely super-optimized, far more optimized than older implementations (for current computing hardware, of course).
I mean, this formulation is wrong (software isn't getting slower), except for the tongue-in-cheek original interpretation I guess. On the other hand, software is getting faster at a slower rate than hardware is and that is still an important observation.
I think both software and hardware got further out on the learning curve which means their real rates of innovative development have both slowed down which means the performance of software has sped up.
I don't get how I get to the last part of that sentence from the first part either, but it almost makes sense.
New work suggests that life could have arisen and survived a mere 15 million years after the Big Bang, when the microwave background radiation levels would have provided sufficient energy to keep almost all planets warm. Summary here, and actual article here. This is still very preliminary, but the possibility at some level is extremely frightening. It adds billions of years of time for intelligent life to have arisen that we don't see, and if anything suggests that the Great Filter is even more extreme than we thought.
There weren't any planets 15 million years after the Big Bang. The first stars formed 100 million years after the Big Bang, and you need another few million on top of that for the planets to form and cool down.
Now that is scary, although there are a few complications. Rocky bodies were probably extremely rare during that time since the metal enrichment of the Universe was extremely low. You can't build life out of just hydrogen and helium.
Is that a relevant number?
Doesn't the relevant number of opportunities for life to appear have units of mass-time?
Isn't the question not how early was some Goldilocks zone, but how much mass was in a Goldilocks zone for how long? This says that the whole universe was a Goldilocks zone for just a few million years. The whole universe is big, but a few million years is small. And how much of the universe was metallic? The paper emphasizes that some of it was, but isn't this a quantitative question?
I agree that a few million years is small, and that the low metal content would be a serious issue (which in addition to being a problem for life forming would also make planets rare as pointed out by bramflakes in their reply). However, the real concern as I see it is that if everything was like this for a few million years, then if life did arise (and you have a whole universe for it to arise), as the cooldown occurred, it seems highly plausible that some forms of life would have then adopted to the cooler environment. This makes panspermia more plausible and thus makes life in general more likely. Additionally, it makes more of a chance for life to get lucky if it managed to get into one of the surviving safe zones (e.g. something like the Mars-Earth biotransfer hypothesis).
I think you may be correct that this isn't a complete run around and panic level update, but it is still disturbing. My initial estimate for how bad this could be is likely overblown.
I'm nervous about the idea that life might adapt to conditions in which it cannot originate. Unless you mean spores, but they have to wait for the world to warm up.
As for panspermia, we have a few billion years of modern conditions before the Earth, which is itself already a problem. I think the natural comparison is the size of that Goldilocks zone to the very early one. But I don't know which is bigger.
Here are three environments. Which is better for radiation of spores?
(1) a few million years where every planet is wet
(2) many billion years, all planets cold
(3) a few billion years, a few good planets.
The first sounds just too short for anything to get anywhere, but the universe is smaller. If one source of life produces enough spores to hit everything, then greater time depth is better, but if they need to reproduce along the way, the modern era seems best.
Why this happened on Earth? It is pretty likely for example that life couldn't originate in an environment like the Sahara desert, but life can adapt and survive there.
I do agree that spores are one of the more plausible scenarios. I don't know enough to really answer the question, and I'm not sure that anyone does, but your intuition sounds plausible.
There's barely any life in the Sahara. It looks a lot like spores to me. I want a measure of life that includes speed. Some kind of energy use or maybe cell divisions. I expect the probability of life developing in a place to be proportional to amount of life there after it arrives. Maybe that's silly; there certainly are exponential effects of molecules arriving the same place at the same time that aren't relevant to the continuation of life. But if you can rule out this claim, I think your model of the origin of life is too detailed.
I'm not sure what you mean by this.
Do you mean something like the idea that if an environment is too harsh even if life can survive the chance that it will evolve into anything beyond a simple organism is low?
We should have the data now to take a whack at the metallicity side of that question, if only by figuring out how many Population 2 stars show up in the various extrasolar planet surveys in proportion with Pop 1. Don't think I've ever seen a rigorous approach to this, but I'd be surprised if someone hasn't done it.
One sticking point is that the metallicity data would be skewed in various ways (small stars live longer and therefore are more likely to be Pop 2), but that shouldn't be a showstopper -- the issues are fairly well understood.
The paper mentions a model. Maybe the calculation is even done in one of the references. The model does not sound related to the observations you mention.
1 - why should no intelligent life arising from a set of places that were likely habitable for only 5 million years (if they existed at all, which is doubtful) be surprising?
2 - I raise the possibility of outcomes for intelligent life that are not destruction or expansion through the universe.
Edit: Gah, that's what I get for leaving this window open while about 8 other people commented
See the conversation with Doug up subthread.
I don't think this is frightening. If you thought life couldn't have arisen more than 3.6 billion years ago but then discover that it could have arisen 13.8 billion years ago, you should be at most 4 times as scared.
The number of habitable planets in the galaxy over the number of habituated planets is a scary number.
The time span of earth civilization over the time span of earth life is a scary number.
4 is not a scary number.
If it were just a date, then, yes, a factor of 4 is lost in the noise. But switching to panspermia changes the calculation. Try Overcoming Bias [Added: maybe this is only a change under Robin Hanson's hard steps model.]
It's potentially scary not because of the time difference, but because of the quantity of habitable planets. It's understood that current conditions in the Universe make it so that only relatively few planets are in the habitable zone. But if the Universe was warm, then almost all planets would be in the habitable zone, making the likelihood of life that much higher.
As I said in my reply to JoshuaZ though, the complication is that rocky planets were probably much rarer than they are now.
It seems to take a lot more than 15 million years to get from "life" to "intelligent life". According to the article this period would only have lasted for a million years, so at most we would probably get a lot of monocellular life arising and then dying during the cooloff.
Does it add billions of years? That's not saying that life could have arisen and survived since 15 million years after the Big Bang.
The paper implies that it only adds millions of years, not billions.
Once the CMB cools down enough with the expansion of the Universe, the Goldilock conditions disappear. The CMB temperature is roughly inversely proportional to the age of the Universe, so 300K at 15 million years becomes just 150K 15 million years later.
PSA: If you want to get store-bought food (as opposed to eating out all the time or eating Soylent), but you don't want to have to go shopping all the time, check to see if there is a grocery delivery service in your area. At least where I live, the delivery fee is far outbalanced by the benefit of almost no shopping time, slightly cheaper food, and decreased cognitive load (I can just copy my previous order, and tweak it as desired).
Alternative: buy a freezer and buy your food in bulk.
My family does this and it's not such a good idea. Old forgotten food will accumulate at the bottom and you'll have less usable space at the top. Chucking out the old food is a) a trivial inconvenience and b) guilt-inducing.
Unless it's one of those freezers with sliding trays.
I have one of those. I thought the chest models are antiquity.
They are standard in the US. It's like washers: top-loaders dominate in the US and front-loaders dominate in Europe.
I disagree with this. Having lived in the US my entire life (specifically MA and VA), I've been in very few homes that had chest freezers, and as far as I recall, none that only had chest freezers (as opposed to extra storage beyond a combination refrigerator/freezer).
I'm not willing to pay to resolve this difference of perception, but if one wanted to do so, the information is probably available here.
I am not sure we disagree. I'm not saying that people are using chest freezers instead of normal refrigerators. I'm saying that if a family buys a separate freezer in addition to a regular fridge, in the US that separate freezer is likely to be a chest freezer.
Here on the West Coast I've seen both standing and chest models, although combination refrigerator/freezers are far more common than either. I associate the chest style with hunters and older people, but that likely reflects my upbringing; I wouldn't hazard a guess as to which is more common overall.
Assuming you are largely indifferent between fresh and frozen food (a data point: I'm not).
I find this a false dichotomy. Care to muster a rebuke?
Empiricism! :-)
Most of the food that I eat doesn't freeze or doesn't freeze well (think fruits and vegetables). Frozen meat is OK for a stew but not at all OK for steaks.
I find -- based on my personal experience -- the texture, aromas, etc. of fresh food to be quite superior to those of frozen food.
Ah, it's funny how easily I forget food isn't just about fueling your cells.
I was expecting some sort of a nutrition based argument.
I would point out that it's unwise to ignore one of the major sources of pleasure in this world :-)
This makes me wonder: What are some simple ways to save quite some time that the average person does not think of?
Stop watching TV.
Pay for an online assistant. It makes you feel awkward but I hear it's quite effective.
Sleep enough.
I have a strong desire to practice speaking in Lojban, and I imagine that this is the second-best place to ask. Any takers?
.i'enai
Red Queen hypothesis means that humans are probably the latest step in a long sequence of fast (on evolutionary time scale) value changes. So does Coherent Extrapolated Volition (CEV) intend to
1) extrapolate all the future co-evolutionary battles humans would have and predict the values of the terminal species as our CEV, or is it intended somehow to
2) freeze the values humans have at the point in time we develop FAI and build a cocoon around humanity which will let it keep this (nearly) arbitrarily picked point in its evolution forever?
If it is 1), it seems the AI doesn't have much of a job to do. Presumably interfere against existential risks to humanity and its successor species, perhaps keep extremely reliable stocks for repopulating if humanity or its successor manages still to kill itself. Maybe even in a less extreme interpretation, FAI does what is required to keep humanity and its successors as the pinnacle species, stealing adaptations from unrelated species that actually manage to threaten us and our successors, so we sort of have 1') which is extrapolate to a future where the pinnacle species is always a descendant of ours.
If 2), it would seem FAI could simply build a sim that freezes in place the evolutionary pressures that brought us to this point as well as freezing in to place our own current state. And then run that sim forever, the sim simply removes genetic mutation from the sim and perhaps has active rebalancing to work against any natural selection which is currently going on.
We could have BOTH futures, those who prefer 2) go live in the Sim that they have always thought was indistinguishable from reality anyway, and those who prefer 1 stay here in the real world and play out their part in evolving whatever comes next. Indeed, the sim of 2) might serve as a form of storage/insurance against existential threats, a source from which human history can be restarted from its point at 0 year FAI whenever needed.
Does CEV crash in to Red Queen hypothesis in interesting ways? Could a human value be to roll the dice on our own values in hopes of developing an even more effective species?
What does the Red Queen hypothesis have to do with value change?
with random mutations and natural selection, old values can disappear and new values can appear in a population. The success of the new values depends only on their differential ability to keep their carriers in children, not on their "friendliness" to the old values of the parents, which is what FAI respecting CEV is meant to accomplish.
The Red Queen Hypothesis is (my paraphrase for purposes of this post) that a lot of the evolution that takes place is not to adapt to unliving environment but to the living and most importantly also evolving environment in which we live, on which we feed, and which does its damdest to feed on us. Imagine a set of smart primates who have already done pretty well against dumber animals by evolving more complex vocal and gestural signalling, and larger neocortices so that complex plans worthy of being communicated can be formulated and understood when communicated. But they lack the concept of handing off something they have with the expectation that they might get something they want even more in trade. THIS is essentially one of the hypotheses of Matt Ridley's book "The Rational Optimist," that homo sapiens is a born trader, while the other primates are not. Without trading, economies of scale and specialization do almost no good. With trading and economies of scale and specialization, a large energy investment in a super-hot brain and some wicked communication gear and skills really pays off.
Subspecies with the right mix of generosity, hypocrisy, selfishness, lust, power hunger, and self-righteousness will ultimately eat the lunch of their too generous or too greedy to cooperate or too lustful to raise their children or too complacent to seek out powerful mates brethren and sistern. This is value drift brought to you by the Red Queen.
CEV is supposed to refer to the values of current humans. However, this does not necessarily imply that an FAI would prevent the creation of non-human entities. I'd expect that many humans (including me) would assign some value to the existence of interesting entities with somewhat different (though not drastically different) values than ours, and the satisfaction of those values. Thus a CEV would likely assign some value to the preferences of a possible human successor species by proxy through our values.
An interesting question, is the CEV dynamic? As we spent decades or millennia in the walled gardens built for us by the FAI would the FAI be allowed to drift its own values through some dynamic process of checking with the humans within its walls to see how its values might be drifting? I had been under the impression that it would not, but that might have been my own mistake.
It's not dynamic. It isn't our values in the sense of what we'd prefer right now. It's what we'd prefer if we were smarter, faster, and more the people that we wished we were. In short, it's what we'd end up with if it was dynamic.
Unless the FAI freezes our current evolutionary state, at least as involves our values, the result we would wind up with if CEV derivation was dynamic would be different from what we would end up with if it is just some extrapolation from what current humans want now.
Even if there were some reason to think our current values were optimal for our current environment, which there is actually reason to think they are NOT, we would still have no reason to think they were optimal in a future environment.
Of course being effectively kept in a really really nice zoo by the FAI, we would not be experiencing any kind of NATURAL selection anymore, and evidence certainly suggests that our volition is to be taller, smarter, have bigger dicks and boobs, be blonder, tanner, and happier, all of which our zookeeper FAI should be able to move us (or our descendants) towards while carrying out necessary eugenics to keep our genome healthy in the absence of natural selection pressures. Certainly CEV keeps us from wanting defective, crippled, and genetically diseased children, so this seems a fairly safe prediction.
It would seem as defined that CEV would have to be fixed at the value it was set at when FAI was created. That no matter how smart, how tall, how blond, how curvaceous or how pudendous we became we would still be constantly pruned back to the CEV of 2045 humans.
As to our values not even being optimal for our current environment fuhgedaboud our future environment, it is pretty widely recognized that we are evolved for the hunter gatherer world of 10,000 years ago, with familial groups of a few hundred, the necessity for survival of hostile reaction against outsiders, and systems which allow fear to distort in extreme ways our rational estimations of things.
I wonder if the FAI will be sad to not be able to see what evolution in its unlimited ignorance would have come up with for us? Maybe they will push a few other species to become intelligent and social and let them duke it out and have natural selection run with them. As long as their species that our CEV didn't feel too overly warm and fuzzy about this shouldn't be a problem for them. And certain as a human in the walled garden I would LOVE to be studying what evolution does beyond what it has done to us, so this would seem like a fine and fun thing for the FAI to do to keep at least my part of the CEV entertained.
The overwhelming majority of dynamic value systems do not end in CEV.
No. CEV is the coherent extrapolation of what we-now value.
Edit: Dynamic value systems likely aren't feasible for recursively self-improving AIs, since an agent with a dynamic goal system has incentive to modify into an agent with a static goal system, as that is what would best fulfill its current goals.
Neither. CEV is supposed to look at what humanity would want if they were smarter, faster, and more the people they wished they were. It finds the end of the evolution of how we change if we are controlled by ourselves, not by the blind idiot god.
Well considering that we at the point we create the FAI are completely a product of the blind idiot god, and so our CEV is some extrapolation of where that blind idiot had gotten us to at the point we finally got the FAI going, it seems very difficult to me to say that the blind idiot god has at all been taken out of the picture.
I guess the idea is that by US being smart and the FAI being even smarter, we are able to whittle down our values until we get rid of the froth, dopey things like being a virgin when you are married and never telling a lie, move through the 6 stages of morality to the top one, the FAI discovers the next 6 or 12 stages and runs sims or something to cut even more foam and crust until there's only one or two really essential things left.
Of course those one or two things were still placed there by the blind idiot god. And if something other than them had been placed by the blind idiot, CEV would have come up with something else. It does not seem there is any escaping this blind idiot. So what is the value of a scheme who's appeal is the appearance of escaping the blind idiot if the appearance is false?
Nicholas Agar has a new book. I read Humanity's End and may even read this...eventually.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0262026635/ref=mp_s_a_1_3?qid=1386699492&sr=8-3
At risk of attracting the wrong kind of attention, I will publicly state that I have donated $5,000 for the MIRI 2013 Winter Fundraiser. Since I'm a "new large donor", this donation will be matched 3:1, netting a cool $20,000 for MIRI.
I have decided to post this because of "Why our Kind Cannot Cooperate". I have been convinced that people donating should publicly brag about it to attract other donors, instead of remaining silent about their donation which leads to a false impression of the amount of support MIRI has.
Interesting.
It certainly seems to make sense for the sake of the cause for (especially large, well-informed) donors to make their donations public. The only downside seems to be a potentially conflicting signal on behalf of the giver.
I'm not sure this is true. Doesn't MIRI publish its total receipts? Don't most organizations that ask for donations?
Growing up Evangelical, it was taught that we should give secretly to charities (including, mostly, the church).
I wonder why? The official Sunday School answer is so that you remain humble as the giver, etc. I wonder if there is some other mechanism whereby it made sense for Christians to propogate that concept (secret giving) among followers?
Total receipts may not be representative. There's a difference between MIRI getting funding from one person with a lot of money and large numbers of people donating small(er) amounts. I was hoping this post to serve as a reminder that many of us on LW do care about donating, rather than a few rather rich people like Peter Thiel or Jaan Tallinn.
Also I suspect scope neglect can be at play -- it's difficult to, on an emotional level, tell the difference between $1 million worth of donations, or ten million, or a hundred million. Seeing each donation that led to adding up to that amount may help.
Yes, because it would show how many people donated. Number of people = power, at least in our brains.
The difference between one person donating 100 000, or one person donating 50 000 and ten people donating 5 000 is that in the latter case, your team has eleven people. It is the same amount of money, but emotionally it feels better. Probably it has other advantages (such as smaller dependence on whims of a single person), but maybe I am just rationalizing here.
You sir, are awesome.
Any good advice on how to become kinder? This can really be classified as two related goals, 1) How can I get more enjoyment out of alleviating others suffering and giving others happiness? 2) How can I reliably do 1 without negative emotions getting in my way (ex. staying calm and making small nudges to persuade people rather than getting angry and trying to change people's worldview rapidly)?
What is your reason for wanting to?
I find myself happier when I act more kindly to others. In addition, lowering suffering/increasing happiness are pretty close to terminal values for me.
You say
Yet you said earlier that
Does this mean that you feel that you do enjoy it but not "enough" in some sense and you want to enjoy it even more?
Correct, it is enjoyable but I wish to make it more so. Hence why I used "more".
I'd recommend Nonviolent Communication for this. It contains specific techniques for how to frame interactions that I've found useful for creating mutual empathy. How To Win Friends And Influence People is also a good source, although IIRC it's more focused on what to do than on how to do it. (And of course, if you read the books, you have to actually practice to get good at the techniques.)
Thanks! And out of curiosity, does the first book have much data backing it? The author's credentials seem respectable so the book would be useful even if it relied on mostly anecdotal evidence, but if it has research backing it up then I would classify it as something I need (rather than ought) to read.
In addition to seconding nonviolent communication, cognitive behavior therapy techniques are pretty good - basically mindfulness exercises and introspection. If you want to change how you respond to certain situations (e.g. times when you get angry, or times when you have an opportunity to do something nice), you can start by practicing awareness of those situations, e.g. by keeping a pencil and piece of paper in your pocket and making a check mark when the situation occurs.
I'm expecting China to have an increasing role in global affairs over the next century. With that in mind, there are a couple of things I'm curious about:
Does anyone have an idea of how prevalent existential risk type ideas are in China?
Has anyone tried to spread LW memes there?
Are the LW meetups in Shanghai, etc. mostly ex-pats or also locals?
Thanks!
Are there any translation efforts in academia? It bothers me that there may be huge corpuses of knowledge that are inaccessible to most scientists or researchers simply because they don't speak, say, Spanish, Mandarin, or Hindi. The current solution to this problem seems to be 'everyone learn English', which seems to do ok in the hard sciences. But I fear there may be a huge missed opportunity in social sciences, especially because Americans are WEIRD and not necessarily psychologically or behaviorally respresentative of the world population. (Link is to an article, link to the cited paper here: pdf)
Some time ago someone linked a paper indicating that there are benefits to fragmentation of academia by language barriers as less people are exposed to some kind of dominant view allowing them to come up with new ideas. One cited example was anthropology which had a Russian and an Anglosphere tradition.
I'd assume there not to be any major translation efforts as being a translator isn't as effective as publishing something of your own by far.
Finding food in foreign grocery stores, or finding out that reality has fewer joints than you might think.
From the comments:
Making sense of unfamiliar legal systems
A monkey teaching a human how to crush leaves
Mirror neurons? Why does the monkey care about whether a human can crush leaves?
Because enjoying teaching useful stuff to people you get along with is a trait that got selected for?