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ChristianKl comments on Open thread for December 9 - 16, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's not a question of whether they do leave, but whether they do come out ahead.
Scientology courses aren't cheap. If you are going to invest money into training, I would prefer to buy training from an organisation that makes leaving easy instead of making it painful.
Oh, I'm pretty confident they don't. But if you had strong reasons for joining and leaving Scientology other than what Scientologists euphemistically call "tech", then in the face of those base rates it seems unlikely to me that they'd manage to suck you in for real.
There are probably safer places to see groupthink in action, though.