mjr comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 28, chapter 99-101 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I've pretty much assumed that cat to be out of the bag since the escape from Azkaban. Though he didn't see how Harry penetrated the wall, he could probably reason it out with decent probability. But sure, beside what Sheaman said about PT being already counterindicated, this does clinch it.