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gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 28, chapter 99-101 - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: palladias 12 December 2013 05:10AM

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Comment author: cultureulterior 09 March 2014 09:41:19PM 5 points [-]

Who is Sirius? Fudge!

  • It is well known that Sirius was replaced before he went to prison (the repeated "I'm not serious", the phoenix screaming particularly loudly at one particular door)
  • Fudge was present at the capture of Sirius, and made Sirius go to Azkaban without a trial- which means Fudge needs to keep the person in Sirius's body locked up for some reason.
  • Sirius can switch bodies somehow (Someone who looks like Sirius enough to fool everyone else is in prison)
  • Fudge is under the thumb of the Malfoys- why? He's using them for support, but there has to be a reason why they can dominate him completely- and being able to expose him as a death eater does that.
  • Harry predicts that Evil!Pettigrew would be with the Malfoys- or in the caribbean? Why not predict the caribbean first? Because Evil!Sirius is with the Malfoys.
  • Meta-dramatic point: Harry has never talked to Fudge. Every time he has a chance to talk to him, like during Harry Potter Day, he hasn't- even during the trial, Fudge never says anything.
Comment author: gwern 10 March 2014 12:33:49AM *  1 point [-]

So in this theory, Pettigrew is just innocent and dead, and Sirius was the one who betrayed the secret to Voldemort?

http://predictionbook.com/predictions/24307

Comment author: cultureulterior 10 March 2014 09:04:22PM 0 points [-]

Yes.

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