New Year's Prediction Thread (2014)

Thomas

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

I think you have that reversed. How can the statement "Bitcoin will surpass $5,000" be less probable than the statement "Bitcoin will surpass $5,000, due to X"?

I think you have that reversed.

I strongly suspect it's a joke about the conjunction fallacy.

The prediction that Bitcoin passes $5k, that there's a bitcoin ETF, and that both happen, are all interesting probabilities; the claim that the conjunction will happen (and specifically that the bitcoin ETF will be the primary cause of the Bitcoin price increase) seems like a conjunction fallacy prompt, that the additional detail is there to make it seem more credible rather than less. (Otherwise, you should use a conditional- if a bitcoin ETF exists, then the price will likely top $5k.)