New Year's Prediction Thread (2014)

Thomas

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

a joke about the conjunction fallacy.

Yep, exactly. (More precisely, bramflakes was making a point about the conjunction fallacy and I was reinforcing it with a bit of irony. Trying to, anyway.)

I'm not sure the conjunction fallacy should be of operational importance to the giving of predictions, unless there is betting involved. What should I do instead, simply state "Bitcoin will rise to $5,000."? That's completely uninteresting, and I fail to see how anyone could judge that prediction based on anything other than my credentials and their prejudices. Saying "Bitcoin will rise to $5,000 due to X." gives people a window into my thinking and lets them judge for themselves whether my assessment is likely.