New Year's Prediction Thread (2014)

Thomas

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

It's time to look back to see what was predicted a year ago and how successfully it was.

But even more, it's time for the fresh predictions for the following year, 2014.

I'm not sure the conjunction fallacy should be of operational importance to the giving of predictions, unless there is betting involved. What should I do instead, simply state "Bitcoin will rise to $5,000."? That's completely uninteresting, and I fail to see how anyone could judge that prediction based on anything other than my credentials and their prejudices. Saying "Bitcoin will rise to $5,000 due to X." gives people a window into my thinking and lets them judge for themselves whether my assessment is likely.

You could say “Bitcoin will rise to $5,000 (for example, due to X).”

2gjm12y

There's nothing at all wrong with making specific predictions. But it should be done with care, in view of our brains' tendency to infer higher rather than lower probability when they see something more specific.