People who post probability estimates of anything should explain in details how they arrived at them. Otherwise it should be called not probability estimate but pulling it out of your ass.
Seriously, stuff like "1% FAI success by 2100"? When there is no clear definition of AI in sight? Just stop.
People who post probability estimates of anything should explain in details how they arrived at them.
I recommend operationalizing this by recommending that people ask "Why do you think so?" when they see a probability estimate.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.