People who post probability estimates of anything should explain in details how they arrived at them. Otherwise it should be called not probability estimate but pulling it out of your ass.
Probabilities are useful for being precise about the claims that you are making. There no reason why one shouldn't be precise about the claim one is making even when one doesn't use a formal method to arrive at them.
Probabilities are useful for being precise about the claims that you are making. There no reason why one shouldn't be precise about the claim one is making even when one doesn't use a formal method to arrive at them.
How is the belief of some random person X in some vague-defined event many years into the future is useful for anything nut the research into person X state of mind? Even if it's defined to 1000 significant figures?
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.