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jsteinhardt comments on Open thread for January 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 January 2014 03:54PM

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Comment author: jsteinhardt 01 January 2014 10:30:15PM 11 points [-]

All beliefs are probability estimates

Apologies for the curmudgeonliness, but it really bugs me when people say things like this. The actual version of this statement that is true is

All coherent actions can be modeled as arising from beliefs that correspond to probability estimates

which is different and much weaker, as now we can argue about how important coherence is relative to other desiderata. One such desideratum is correspondence to reality, which I believe is Locaha's point above. Personally, I would much rather have incoherent beliefs that correspond to reality than coherent beliefs that do not correspond to reality.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 04 January 2014 07:53:53PM *  0 points [-]

One such desideratum is correspondence to reality, which I believe is Locaha's point above.

I don't think this belief has much correspondence to reality.

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