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army1987 comments on Open thread for January 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If there's a 0.01 chance that something happens tomorrow, then if everything stays the same you'd expect that thing to happen about three or four times this year, whereas if it's 0.00001 you'd be quite surprised if it ever happens (EDIT: during your lifetime, assuming no cryonics/antiagathics/uploads). (Of course with stuff like x-risk intuition will be much less reliable.)