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NancyLebovitz comments on Open thread for January 1-7, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: NancyLebovitz 01 January 2014 03:54PM

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Comment author: Locaha 01 January 2014 04:10:46PM *  -2 points [-]

People who post probability estimates of anything should explain in details how they arrived at them. Otherwise it should be called not probability estimate but pulling it out of your ass.

Seriously, stuff like "1% FAI success by 2100"? When there is no clear definition of AI in sight? Just stop.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 07 January 2014 11:01:33AM 1 point [-]

People who post probability estimates of anything should explain in details how they arrived at them.

I recommend operationalizing this by recommending that people ask "Why do you think so?" when they see a probability estimate.

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