MugaSofer comments on [LINK] Why I'm not on the Rationalist Masterlist - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's really not. They refer to being misgendered, which should have been strong evidence your assumption was mistaken. And indeed, if you had clicked through to their "about" page you would have found they prefer to be referred to with male pronouns.
I don't really care - I'm fairly certain this is the work of a troll - but hey, you claimed it was an example of valid Bayesian inference, so naturally I'm going to leap on it.