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Open Thread for January 8 - 16 2014

5 Post author: tut 08 January 2014 12:14PM

If it's worth saying but not worth its own thread even in discussion it goes here.

Comments (343)

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Comment author: Anatoly_Vorobey 14 January 2014 07:02:24PM 3 points [-]

What if lesswrong.org hosted individual users' blogs? They would live on the user profile page, as a separate tab (perhaps the default one). That (and an RSS feed) would be the primary way to get to them. Public homepage would not aggregate from them, Main and Discussion remaining as they are.

Has this been discussed before? Pros/cons? Would you use this mechanism if it were available?

(technically, under the hood, they'd be easy to implement as just separate individual subreddits, I guess)

Comment author: ChristianKl 15 January 2014 05:28:59PM 1 point [-]

I don't think there any advantage of individuals to write blogs in that way. Having the blog separate and the links on "RECENT ON RATIONALITY BLOGS" seems to be a good solution.

Comment author: Baruta07 14 January 2014 07:00:20PM 2 points [-]

For my high-school Chemistry course I need to interview an individual involved with the sciences in some professional capacity. Anyone interested?

Comment author: wadavis 14 January 2014 10:05:48PM 1 point [-]

I am an engineer practicing in Alberta, of course my trade is closer to math pure and physics than chemistry, but all the same I would be available for a text-based interview.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 14 January 2014 08:42:54PM 1 point [-]

Looking for advice on cheap / enjoyable caffeine sources.

I currently have a 2-3 energy drink per day caffeine habit, which is a bad thing due to the expense if nothing else. A couple months ago I tried to switch to making my own coffee, but it turns out that's harder than it seems and the drip coffee maker in the App Academy office makes pretty weak coffee that I don't trust to stave off withdrawal symptoms (which I really don't want to have affecting my productivity right now).

So now taking recommendations for caffeine pills / coffee machines / tea brands / whatever else.

Comment author: Stabilizer 18 January 2014 08:02:33PM 1 point [-]

Espresso is the best for preventing withdrawal. You can buy espresso cans like these. They end up costing around $1-2 per drink.

You can also consider buying a moka pot. Though, moka pot coffee isn't really espresso as it is extracted under much less pressure. But you can make your own and so save money. It tastes quite good.

A single shot of espresso from Starbucks, costs around $1.50. If you want something strong, I recommend a red-eye: a cup of drip coffee with a shot of espresso in it. This usually will keep you caffeinated for a few hours at least.

Comment author: Nornagest 14 January 2014 08:54:39PM *  3 points [-]

Well, energy drinks don't have that high a caffeine content compared to coffee -- a can of Rockstar has about 160 mg in it, which is comparable to a strong cup of coffee, but it's got somewhere around twice the volume. Red Bull is more like 80mg. So if your office coffee isn't scratching your itch, you're probably craving something other than caffeine, maybe even just sugar. I'd recommend experimenting with that a bit.

If you want to make good coffee easily, though, I recommend a burr grinder + French press or drip cone (I prefer the standalone kind, though a drip coffeemaker won't kill you), and the best-quality beans you can find: Philz is a good Bay Area choice. Toss a couple tablespoons of beans per cup of coffee into your grinder, grind them at a medium-fine setting, transfer to your coffee production system of choice, then add boiling water. French presses tend to make stronger coffee with more complex flavors, but add a timing parameter -- you can oversteep or understeep coffee made with a French press, while drip coffee is pretty idiotproof.

Comment author: bramflakes 15 January 2014 12:59:21AM 1 point [-]

Caffeine pills are cheap, portable, fast-acting, and you can get an exact dose.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 January 2014 08:50:18PM *  2 points [-]

The simplest thing is caffeine pills. They're cheap and freely available over-the-counter.

Making yourself some coffee is not hard at all. Drip coffeemakers are ubiquitous and cheap, if you think the coffee is too weak just put more grounds into the basket. Otherwise try Aeropress, it's good. I also like Turkish coffee but most people think it's too muddy. If you want a hobby, buy a proper espresso machine :-)

Tea is even simpler, all you need is tea and boiling water. Experiment with different teas (they are VERY different), figure out what you like. I strongly recommend loose tea over teabags.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 14 January 2014 07:14:11AM *  8 points [-]

Two unrelated things (should I make these in separate posts or...?):

1.) Given recent discussion on social justice advocates and their... I don't know the best way to describe this, sometimes poor epistemological habits? I thought I would post this

http://geekfeminism.wikia.com/wiki/Concern_troll

Is this it just me, or is this, like, literally the worst concept ever? It literally just means "someone slightly to the right of me" or "someone does anything that could be considering cheering for the other side", backed with a dubious claim that these people are usually acting in bad faith. Is that even a thing people actually do, go on websites with people they disagree with and "troll" by claiming that they mostly agree except on certain issues? Outside of this context I have never seen this or had any reason to consider the possibility. Isn't it more likely, that you know... people mostly agree with you except on certain issues?

"Concern trolling is frequently banned in feminist communities."

"Concern trolling is frequently banned in feminist communities."

"Concern trolling is frequently banned in feminist communities."

I just don't get it. How does a movement with motives so noble become this horrible? I mean, I kind of do get it, but still... fuck.

2.) How can I train myself to speak more eloquently? Like most people my generation, I say "like" every ten words or so (although I've gotten better at avoiding this), say um and other filler sounds a lot, and often say "you know", "you see what I mean", etc. I also tend to repeat phrases for "filler" - I'll say things like "Yeah, I've been, I've been, I've been thinking about this a lot recently." (This looks really weird written out, trust me, it's not that weird in real life.) I want to stop doing this because doing so will let me sound more authoritative, and also I'm kind of disgusted by this pattern of speech even though everyone does it.

Note that I don't want to be one of those people who fetishizes the past and goes around forcing old-timey turns of phrase like "Great Scott!" into conversation and wears (yes) a fedora. I just want to be better at communicating concrete ideas in complete sentences in my daily life.

Comment author: Alejandro1 16 January 2014 04:10:56PM 1 point [-]

Imagine we often saw people coming to LW and saying things like

"Hello. I wholeheartedly agree with the basic goals of LW and I think rationality is awesome! But, if I may make a small criticism, I think LW is being a bit irrational itself in its complete dismissal of religion. Yes, many forms of religion are irrational, but others may not be so, and one must no throw the baby with the bathwater, etc. etc."

If there was a recurring pattern of this happening, with the pro-religion arguments being made by "newbies" and being things we have seen many times before, wouldn't we get impatient with it, give it a label (such as "concern trolling") and apply the label dismissively from then on? Perhaps this is not the most open-minded attitude, and it would be very inappropriate in a forum dedicated to open discussion between theists and atheists. But in a forum where most people have decided to their own satisfaction that these criticisms are incorrect, and are more interested in discussing other topics while taking atheism for granted than in rehashing what they see as basic stuff, can they really be faulted for taking it?

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 16 January 2014 08:01:38PM 3 points [-]

You give reasons for having a dismissive label, but the particular label is about other reasons. I think that disconnect is dangerous.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 14 January 2014 01:02:16PM *  12 points [-]

Concern trolling is a widespread phenomenon, not specific to feminist communities. The definition given in the first two sentences of that article is the exact concept that the phrase was coined to name:

A concern troll is a person who participates in a debate posing as an actual or potential ally who simply has some concerns they need answered before they will ally themselves with a cause. In reality they are a critic.

The article does then go on to broaden the concept to the point where it can be used as a club to invalidate anyone:

Concern trolls are not always self-aware, they may also view themselves as potential allies

Well, no. The whole point of the concept is that a concern troll is lying. They are, in fact, an enemy deliberately, consciously, intentionally, posing as a friend in order to undermine discourse. Someone who is actually a friend with genuine questions that they actually want to be constructively discussed is not a concern troll, even if those who do not wish the questions to be raised at all call them that.

Comment author: pianoforte611 15 January 2014 01:08:11AM *  1 point [-]

Do concern trolls actually exist? I've never seen one (or maybe they were subtle enough that I didn't notice).

Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 January 2014 09:30:31AM 4 points [-]

I've seen them, and unlike Nornagest, I don't think they're at all rare. They're one of the common forms that trolling takes. A certain person who was run out of here on a rail a few months ago fitted the form. (I'm not going to link, but his username in rot13 was WbfuRyqref.)

As for how you tell, well, how do you ever tell pretence from truth?

Comment author: Nornagest 15 January 2014 09:52:17PM 2 points [-]

Would you mind sharing your evidence that (rot13: WbfuRyqref) was concern trolling, via PM if you'd prefer? I wasn't involved in that little spat, and looking over his comment history it doesn't seem entirely implausible, but on the other hand I've elsewhere seen people with, er, similar opinions posting in what I'm pretty sure is deadly earnest.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 16 January 2014 07:55:23AM 1 point [-]

I have only the evidence of his own postings. This comment of mine was about him, and the pattern I describe there, running through all his postings, is a pretty clear sign to me. He appeared out of nowhere, made an unusual claim about himself that no-one in that position would have any good reason to disclose, then sat back and never engaged with anyone, instead trying to keep the pot boiling by muttering disingenuously about forbidden topics. Fortunately it didn't work and he left (or was kicked, I don't know.)

It is possible that he was also what he said he was (although I wouldn't take the "celibate" part on his word), and using the cover of trolling to indulge a desire to talk freely about these things without the danger of being believed.

Of course, none of this is definitive. But we have to make judgements of people's honesty all the time, and do the best we can. This is mine.

Comment author: Nornagest 15 January 2014 01:44:09AM *  8 points [-]

I think there's a Poe's law type thing going on here: looking at behavior alone, it's very difficult to tell the difference between a concern troll and a tentative ally with the right ideological background. That's probably especially true for cultures like social justice that use a lot of endogenous concepts and terminology: within those movements, any concerns that don't speak the language are going to pattern-match to "enemy" on linguistic grounds and suffer from the corresponding horns effect.

With that in mind, I suspect they exist but are pretty rare.

Comment author: lavalamp 15 January 2014 01:15:52AM 3 points [-]

I'd like to agree with you, but how do I know you're not a concern troll?

Comment author: Randaly 14 January 2014 03:59:14PM 5 points [-]

re: public speaking: There are in person groups like Toastmasters. Alternately, you can record yourself speaking about something and try to give yourself a self-critique.

Here's an exercise I've run before: Person 1 picks a word at random; Person 2 immediately starting speaking about something relevant. At 15 second intervals for 1-2 minutes, Person 1 throws out new words; Person 2 needs to keep speaking about the new words, and to flow smoothly between topics. (You can substitute Wikipedia's random article button for Person 1.)

Comment author: Locaha 14 January 2014 01:05:20PM *  6 points [-]

"Concern trolling is frequently banned in feminist communities."

It may help if you consider the possibility that some feminist communities do not exist for the sake of rational dispassionate and balanced discussion of feminism. Rather, a feminist community may be a meeting place for the members of a feminist movement of some kind, which exists to achieve its goals. Like any other political movement.

TL;DR. LW is not the real world. In the real world, arguments are always soldiers (even if you pretend them not to be), discussion requires resources, and resources are finite.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 16 January 2014 03:51:22PM 2 points [-]

LW is not the real world. In the real world, arguments are always soldiers

And they're not here?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 16 January 2014 05:58:06PM 5 points [-]

Well, you tell me: have you seen examples here of people engaging each other in order to learn from each other rather than convince each other of the rightness of their views?

It's not a rhetorical question. When I first joined this site there was rather a lot of that, which was largely what pulled me in. These days it's largely displaced by various other things, and it's quite possible that a new arrival simply won't notice it amidst all the noise. So I'm asking.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 18 January 2014 09:37:05PM 3 points [-]

Oh there's plenty of people engaging to learn from each other, right alongside a major echo chamber of people pushing a very particular cluster of mythologies and ideologies. I like it here a lot for the former and enjoy watching the latter go on while its participants insist it is something else.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 January 2014 05:33:13PM 3 points [-]

LW is not the real world. In the real world, arguments are always soldiers

This is implies that all discussions are adversarial and cannot be anything else. I do not think this is the case.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 14 January 2014 01:20:57PM *  5 points [-]

Mere fact that the resources are finite is enough reason to use heuristics and -- inevitably -- biases.

If there are hundreds of comments I am not able to fully reaseach, I need to use some filters. Such as "trust the comments from people from the beginning of the alphabet and ignore the comments from people from the end of the alphabet" or "trust the comments from respected long-time users and ignore the comments from unknown new users". Obviously, some of these heuristics are much reliable than the others, but none of them is perfect.

Then, as abstractly thinking people we may play the game on a higher level, inventing meta-heuristics for accepting or rejecting heuristics. Such as: "if a more experienced member of my tribe recommends me a heuristic, I will use it; and I will ignore the heuristics promoted from unknown people or other tribes". Actually, this seems like a decent heuristic; you probably won't find a better one with comparable simplicity. And one of its consequences is that when an experienced member says "ignore concern trolls", you follow that. Plus you need some operational definition of what a concern troll is, which is something like: "expresses concern for our tribe, but does not pattern-match to a typical member of our tribe". There.

It's imperfect because all heuristics are imperfect.

And of course smart people always find a way to abuse it. Because all imperfect rules can be abused creatively. For example some people may start using it as a fully general counteragument against anyone who disagrees with them and happens to have lower status in given community.

And the only way to fix it would be to send all internet users to CFAR's reeducation camps. Which, unfortunately, are still under construction. :P

Comment author: pragmatist 14 January 2014 12:33:57PM *  4 points [-]

The site you linked gives a method for detecting concern trollery, so the concept is at least somewhat operationalized:

Concern trolls can be identified primarily because they will retreat from, rather than engage with or be convinced by, answers to the questions they pose. They may repeatedly ask a certain question in feminist discussions without ever absorbing or replying to answers from previous discussions. They will often back into typical anti-feminist arguments, such as expressing concern that an argument is too "extreme" or a feminist too "strident" or even "hysterical". Another common tactic is insisting that some subjects are more important than others, for example, that media depictions of women shouldn't be criticised while violence against women continues.

This seems quite distinct from "someone slightly to the right of me". If this description is correct, then someone who goes into a feminist space and argues forcefully against some tenet of feminism, replying substantively to the feminists' objections (rather than criticizing their tone), would not qualify as a concern troll.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 January 2014 05:35:52PM 3 points [-]

If this description is correct, then someone who goes into a feminist space and argues forcefully against some tenet of feminism, replying substantively to the feminists' objections (rather than criticizing their tone), would not qualify as a concern troll.

Yes, such person would be labeled an outright "enemy" and kicked out even faster than a troll.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 14 January 2014 12:47:56PM 4 points [-]

Pretty sure that LW would also look badly upon people who showed up here and kept repeating the same questions over and over, without ever acknowledging the previous times when people had replied to them.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 14 January 2014 06:19:58PM 2 points [-]

Yup. Even more so if they backed into typical anti-rational arguments, such as expressing concern that an argument is too "extreme" or a rationalist too "cold" or even "unfeeling."

Comment author: wadavis 14 January 2014 04:05:44PM *  2 points [-]

2.) In my experience, filling your rhetoric with filler words is a result of being uncertain speaking, or not being sure what you want to say.

For the first item, find public speaking practice/training. This does not have to be toastmasters, volunteer or join a club and step into a leadership position. Take a part time job at a tourist attraction and spend an afternoon a week telling stories to groups of strangers. You may be already at home talking to anyone, but if you are not, this will help.

For the second item, find public speaking practice/training. Too often I find myself repeating my last statement and using other filler methods to hold my place in the conversation while I order my thoughts. Take a breath, pause, figure out what you are going to say before you say it. It feels like an eternity to you, but it is only a moment's pause to the listener. Also, instead of holding your place with filler, practice body language, establish through posture and eye contact that you are still talking. Public speaking is again great practice for holding interest by body language alone.

Disclaimer: I'm from a very Wait Culture, results may vary in a Interrupt Culture

Edit for emphasis: Decide what you want to say then say it! You will use more precise language and less filler.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 14 January 2014 10:22:31PM *  1 point [-]

Thanks. I'm a college student so the obvious choice is to be a tour guide, but for some reason this is a really popular job and it's hard to get even though you don't get paid? Maybe I could find some sort of club that would be good for this purpose.

Decide what you want to say then say it! You will use more precise language and less filler.

I've tried to do this but it's a lot easier said than done. Maybe I'll have to redouble my efforts.

EDIT: What culture are you from? The idea of a wait culture sounds very alien to me outside of classroom discussions.

Comment author: wadavis 14 January 2014 11:14:59PM 3 points [-]

College is full of student groups, find one you like for its own merits and as a side project strive for a role that includes a little bit of audience addressing. I took on a secretary role in my fraternity that involved frequently addressing the whole chapter, and joined the 4-H alumni that volunteered as leaders for 4-H youth events. Unfortunately it is a skill that benefits less from dedicated practice and more from repetition and familiarity.

College is a great opportunity to develop these skills, but it does seem that the low-hanging fruit has been picked over (tour guides, student council, excreta).

I'm from Canada, I hate to reinforce the polite/sorry meme. but ya.

Comment author: Watercressed 14 January 2014 07:50:28AM 7 points [-]

Concern trolling in the false flag political operation sense is a thing that happened

An example of this occurred in 2006 when Tad Furtado, a staffer for then-Congressman Charles Bass (R-NH), was caught posing as a "concerned" supporter of Bass' opponent, Democrat Paul Hodes, on several liberal New Hampshire blogs, using the pseudonyms "IndieNH" or "IndyNH". "IndyNH" expressed concern that Democrats might just be wasting their time or money on Hodes, because Bass was unbeatable.[37][38] Hodes eventually won the election.

Comment author: Creutzer 14 January 2014 09:28:03AM 1 point [-]

Ad two: I have no particular expertise in this area, so all I can offer is a few remarks based on what I myself do when I want to change something about my speech (e.g. my accent, but also vocabulary). Basically, it's one of those things where what you need to do is train yourself to pay attention. In order to do this, it's important not to be afraid to speak slowly. There might be an unconscious inhibition to speaking slowly for fear of appearing dumb. If you overcome that, you have time to consciously double-check what you're saying, and to consciously intervene by actively thinking about what you're going to say, and then saying it, or by stopping yourself when you feel that you're about to say something undesirable (like "like").

Also, you couldn't be old-fashioned by wearing a fedora, if I'm correct in deducing from you username that you're a girl. ;-)

Comment author: pragmatist 14 January 2014 12:28:54PM 3 points [-]

Also, you couldn't be old-fashioned by wearing a fedora, if I'm correct in deducing from you username that you're a girl

Understandable but incorrect deduction, actually. He's a guy. I remember being somewhat confused by this at one point, too.

Comment author: Blazinghand 14 January 2014 06:08:17AM 4 points [-]

My friend will have one month of unemployment in the SF Bay Area and is looking for projects, experiences, and ideas to make zirself awesome. My friend works in the biological sciences, but plans to apply to medical school. Traits include being multilingual (english, mandarin, french), very limited spanish, cooking, sub-power user competent technology use. Not widely read, not x-rational, difficulties with akrasia, drive, self-confidence, public speaking, making friends. No significant knowledge of coding, math beyond calculus II, philosophy, sociology, politics, economics. Normal fitness levels, but does not regularly exercise.

Where should ze look for advice on how to spend a month without work? What kind of activities would be good to pursue? Goals include acceptance to medical school, forming an alternative career, or other non-specified ideas about becoming a better person.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 16 January 2014 07:40:54PM 1 point [-]

You've listed one concrete goal and two stupendously vague goals. My first suggestion would be for your friend to spend the time figuring out what, exactly, they're trying to achieve with something like "form an alternative career" or "become a better person," then using the resulting knowledge to make an actionable plan. Clarifying goals is often the first step to achieving goals.

Other considerations: How far in the future will this be? How much money, if any, does this person have available for training or travel or the like? Is CFAR running a workshop during the relevant month?

Comment author: Stabilizer 13 January 2014 05:19:54PM *  7 points [-]

I don't see any discussion about this blog post by Mike Travern.

His point is that people trying to solve for Friendly AI are doing so because it's an "easy", abstract problem well into the future. He contends that we are already taking significant damage from artificially created human systems like the financial system, which can be ascribed agency and it's goals are quite different from improving human life. These systems are quite akin to "Hostile AI". This, he contends, is the really hard problem.

Here is a quote from the blogpost (which is from a Facebook comment he made):

I am generally on the side of the critics of Singulitarianism, but now want to provide a bit of support to these so-called rationalists. At some very meta level, they have the right problem — how do we preserve human interests in a world of vast forces and systems that aren’t really all that interested in us? But they have chosen a fantasy version of the problem, when human interests are being fucked over by actual existing systems right now. All that brain-power is being wasted on silly hypotheticals, because those are fun to think about, whereas trying to fix industrial capitalism so it doesn’t wreck the human life-support system is hard, frustrating, and almost certainly doomed to failure.

It's a short post, so you can read it quickly. What do you think about his argument?

Comment author: asr 13 January 2014 06:25:17PM *  14 points [-]

It's a short post, so you can read it quickly. What do you think about his argument?

I think it's silly. I suspect MIRI and every other singulatarian organization, and every other individual working on the challeges of unfriendly AI, could fit comfortably in a 100-person auditorium.

In contrast, "trying to fix industrial capitalism" is one of the main topics of political dispute everywhere in the world. "How to make markets work better" is one of the main areas of research in economics. The American Economic Association has 18,000 members. We have half a dozen large government agencies, with budgets of hundreds of millions of dollars each, to protecting people from hostile capitalism. (The SEC, the OCC, the FTC, etc etc, are all ultimately about trying to curb capitalist excess. Each of these organizations has a large enforcement bureaucracy, and also a number of full-time salaried researchers.)

The resources and human energy devoted to unfriendly AI are tiny compared to the amount expended on politics and economics. So it's strange to complain about the diversion of resources.

Comment author: [deleted] 14 January 2014 05:34:29PM 1 point [-]

I think it's silly. I suspect MIRI and every other singulatarian organization, and every other individual working on the challeges of unfriendly AI, could fit comfortably in a 100-person auditorium.

It looks to me like the room in this picture contains more than 100 people.

Comment author: asr 14 January 2014 07:24:44PM 1 point [-]

Yes. I will revise upwards my impression of how many people are working on Singularity topics. That said, not everybody who showed up at the summit was working on singularity-problems. Some were just interested bystanders.

Comment author: Stabilizer 13 January 2014 06:29:31PM *  7 points [-]

Excellent point. I'm surprised this did not occur to me. This reminds me of Scott Aaronson's reply when someone suggested that quantum computational complexity is quite unimportant compared to experimental approaches to quantum computing and therefore shouldn't get much funding:

I find your argument extremely persuasive—assuming, of course, that we’re both talking about Bizarro-World, the place where quantum complexity research commands megabillions and is regularly splashed across magazine covers, while Miley Cyrus’s twerking is studied mostly by a few dozen nerds who can all fit in a seminar room at Dagstuhl.

Comment author: gwern 13 January 2014 06:28:15PM 7 points [-]

Is this the new 'but what about starving Africans?'

Comment author: Lumifer 13 January 2014 05:32:06PM 4 points [-]

I think that he sounds mind-killed. Calling the financial system a "hostile AI" sounds cool for about half a second until your brain wakes up and goes "Whaaaaat?" :-)

If he really wanted to talk about existing entities with agency and their own interests, well, the notion that the state is one is very very old.

Comment author: Stabilizer 13 January 2014 06:03:37PM 2 points [-]

Actually, Mike Travers has a whole sequence of excellent posts on ascribing agency to non-human systems over at Ribbonfarm. See here. I particularly recommend the post Patterns of Refactored Agency.

I don't think ascribing agency to systems like institutions and collections of institutions is too forced. In fact, institutions seem to exist precisely for preserving and propagating values in the face of changing individuals.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 January 2014 06:07:26PM 2 points [-]

I'm completely fine with ascribing agency to institutions. I'm not fine with sticking in emotionally-loaded terms and implying that e.g. AI researchers should work on fixing the financial system.

Comment author: Stabilizer 13 January 2014 06:27:27PM *  1 point [-]

But I don't think that his point is that AI researchers, in general, should be working on fixing the financial system.

I think his point is that the people at MIRI have chosen AI research because they think that AI is a significant source of threat to human well-being/eixstence from non-human value systems (possibly generated by humans). His claim seems to be that AI may only be a very small part of the problem. Instead, there already exist non-human value systems generated by humans threatening human well-being/existence and we don't know how to fix that.

So, I guess the counter-argument from someone at MIRI would go something like: "while it is true that human institutions can threaten human well-being, no human institution seems to have the power in the near future to threaten human existence. But the technology of self-improving AI, can FOOM and threaten human existence. Thus, we choose to work on preventing this outcome."

Comment author: Lumifer 13 January 2014 06:39:08PM 4 points [-]

Instead, there already exist non-human value systems generated by humans threatening human well-being/existence and we don't know how to fix that.

First, I am unaware of evidence (though I am aware of a lot of loud screaming) that human institutions pose an existential risk to humanity. I think the closest we come to that is the capability of US and Russia to launch an all-out nuclear exchange.

Second, the whole "non-human value systems" is much too fuzzy for my liking. Is self-preservation a human value? Let's take an entity, say a large department within a governmental bureaucracy, the major values of which are self-preservation and the accrual of benefits (of various kinds) to its leadership. Is that a "non-human value system"? Should we call it "hostile AI" and be worried about it?

Third, the global financial system (or the "industrial capitalism") is not an institution. It's an ecosystem where many different entities coexist, fight, live, and die. I am not sure ecosystems have agency.

Fourth, it looks to me like his argument would shortcut to either a revolution or more malaria nets.

Comment author: gjm 13 January 2014 11:00:43PM *  1 point [-]

OK, fine, unfriendly AIs occupy only a small part of the space of possible non-human agents arising from human action and having value systems different from ours and enough power to do a lot of harm as a result; and businesses and nations and so forth are other possible examples.

Furthermore, non-human agents arising [etc.] occupy only a small part of the space of Bad Things.

It doesn't follow from the latter that people investigating how to arrange for businesses and nations and whatnot to do good rather than harm are making a mistake; and it doesn't follow from the former that people investigating how to arrange for superhuman AIs (if and when they show up) to do good rather than harm are making a mistake.

Why not? Because in each case the more restricted class of entities has particular features that are (hopefully) amenable to particular kinds of study, and that (we fear) pose particular kinds of threat.

A large and important fraction of AI-space is occupied by entities with the following interesting features. They are created deliberately by human researchers; they operate according to clear and explicit (but perhaps monstrously complex) principles; their behaviour is, accordingly, in principle amenable to quite rigorous (but perhaps intractably difficult) analysis. Businesses and nations and religions and sports clubs don't have these features, and there's some hope of developing ways of understanding and/or controlling AIs that don't apply to those other entities.

It is possible (very likely, according to some) that a large fraction of the probability of a superhuman AI turning up in the nearish future comes from scenarios in which the AI goes from being distinctly subhuman and no threat to anyone, to being vastly superhuman and potentially controlling everything that happens on earth, in so short a time that it's not feasible for anyone (including businesses, nations, etc.) to stop it. Businesses and nations and religions and sports clubs mostly have [EDIT: oops, I meant "don't have"] this feature (though you might argue that nuclear war is a bit like a Bad Singularity in some respects), and there might accordingly be a need for much tighter control over potentially superhuman AIs than over businesses and nations and the like.

So one can agree that there are interesting analogies between the danger from unfriendly superhuman AI and the danger from an out-of-control financial system / government / business cartel / religion / whatever, while also thinking that a bunch of people whose interests and expertise lie in the domain of software engineering and pure mathematics might be more effectively used by having them concentrate on AI rather than the financial system.

(There might also be a need for experts in software engineering and pure mathematics to help make the financial system safer -- by keeping an eye on the potential for runaway algorithmic trading systems at banks and hedge funds, for instance. But that's not what Mike Travers is talking about, and actually it's not a million miles away from friendly AI work -- though probably a lot easier because the systems involved are simpler and more limited in power.)

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 13 January 2014 08:11:02AM *  20 points [-]

Once again I am deeply impressed how Yvain can explain things that I have vaguely felt for a long time but couldn't quite put into words.

Specifically the concept of the "safe spaces" and whether only some groups deserve them and other groups don't. And more generally, whether only members of some groups have feelings and can be hurt (or perhaps whether only feelings and pain of some groups matter) or whether we all are to some degree fragile and valueable.

And how the "safe space" of one group sometimes cannot be a "safe space" of another group, and it's okay to simply have both of them. And as a consequence how by insisting that every place must be a "safe space" of group X we de facto say that the group Y should have no "safe space", ever.

Comment author: Chrysophylax 13 January 2014 02:13:48PM 2 points [-]

A query about threads:

I posted a query in discussion because I didn't know this thread exists. I got my answer and was told that I should have used the Open Thread, so I deleted the main post, which the FAQ seems to be saying will remove it from the list of viewable posts. Is this sufficient?

I also didn't see my post appear under discussion/new before I deleted it. Where did it appear so that other people could look at it?

Comment author: Tenoke 13 January 2014 05:26:10PM 2 points [-]

Yes, this is sufficient. Well done.

I also didn't see my post appear under discussion/new before I deleted it. Where did it appear so that other people could look at it?

It appeared under Discussion (it is no longer there) and I am not sure why you weren't able to see it there.

Comment author: Zian 13 January 2014 07:10:27AM 3 points [-]

Has there been any update on the Less Wrong survey/census? The original post mentioned something about a "MONETARY REWARD" but it didn't say when to check back for results/etc.

Comment author: badger 12 January 2014 11:04:47PM 4 points [-]

Is there a reason why a second account I made recently is unable to post comments? The top-level comment box and the reply buttons on comments are missing. I hope this isn't affecting all new users.

Comment author: AndekN 14 January 2014 11:15:33AM 1 point [-]

I had the same problem couple of months ago. It was about confirming an e-mail address: I received an email asking me to confirm the address I was using, with a link. After that, I could comment normally. Unfortunately I can't remember what I did in order to receive that email: something in preferences, probably.

Comment author: NoSuchPlace 12 January 2014 09:20:22PM *  3 points [-]

A while back there was a post linking to videos and a paper about an AI which which can play arbitrary NES games. Since then two more videos about the AI have been uploaded by the author:

Also in the second video the Author briefly addresses concerns about the AI turning into skynet.

Comment author: ChristianKl 12 January 2014 07:07:46PM 4 points [-]

I just set up the Anki Beeminder plugin + Beeminder on my Android smartphone. It all automatic software and should I forget to do Anki enough the smartphone app will bug me.

I think for anyone doing Anki there no reason not to go down that road. If you want to make sure you can even add a commitment contract to Beeminder.

Comment author: [deleted] 21 January 2014 09:07:56PM *  2 points [-]

there no reason not to go down that road

I tried Beeminder and it didn't work. Basically, I just ignored it when there were $5 at stake, was briefly motivated by $10 and $30, and then just started lying. So, you need to have at least some self-respect in order to successfully use it. The most funny thing is that I paid them something around $300, before I found out how ineffective Beeminder was for me.

Yay positive reinforcement! (M&M's had helped me with Anki, to some extent (until I started lying :D))

Comment author: Calvin 13 January 2014 02:22:05AM *  1 point [-]

Anyone else sees has a problem with this particular statement taken from Cryonics institute FAQ?

One thing we can guarantee is that if you don't sign up for cryonics is that you will have no chance at all of coming back.

I mean, marketing something as one shot that might hopefully delay (or prevent) death, is hard to swallow, but I can cope with that, but this statement reads like cryonics is the one and only possible way to do that.

Comment author: Fronken 05 February 2014 07:23:36PM *  1 point [-]

Well ... isn't it? What others are you thinking of? None spring to my mind.

Comment author: MugaSofer 08 February 2014 09:25:50PM 1 point [-]

Upvoted, but I think you misinterpreted the grandparent slightly.

If you don't sign up for cryonics, you will have no chance at all of coming back if you die- the claim is literally true - but the grandparent seems to be considering the broader class of "might hopefully delay (or prevent) death" - anti-aging techniques, uploading, even time travel.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 12 January 2014 02:38:47PM *  5 points [-]

My friends keep posting videos of Jacob Barnett, a child genius (TEDx video; YouTube channel) on facebook. I'd like to have your opinion about what kind of a genius precisely he is.

From my short googling, seems to me that the kid has an Asperger syndrom, he probably enjoys reading a lot about maths and physics, he probably does it most of his day, and he seems to have some kind of photographic memory, so he remembers a lot and then goes to impress people. His mother is doing a very good marketing campaign for him. There are videos of him talking about quantum physics, relativity, black holes, and other similar stuff on YouTube. He is believed to have mastered the high-school mathematics in two weeks, or something like that. And there seems to be a lot of comment spam about him on various websites (e.g. over 400 google hits on StackExchange, most of it later deleted). On his webpage, you can buy a book about him (written by his mother) or contribute to a charity for autistic children.

If someone wants to see his videos about physics, I would like to know your opinion whether what he speaks seems correct, and whether it shows deeper understanding, or just repeating something he memorized from the book. (I am not good at physics. The YouTube videos make it difficult to read what he writes; but it wouldn't help me even if I could.) Most people's reactions are: "oh, the kid seems so smart, I don't even understand what he's saying, but it's so smart". So, I'd like to have an opinion of someone who does understand.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 13 January 2014 02:40:56PM 3 points [-]

I watched one of his videos explaining the path integral. It was definitely all correct, and the way he presented it convinces me that he wasn't just repeating something he had memorised from a text book. He was presenting it informally and in his own words. He even had a way of motivating the path integral hat I hadn't seen before. So I'd say that he genuinely does have a deep understanding.

Comment author: Manfred 14 January 2014 10:10:52AM *  2 points [-]

Watched the path integral videos as well. The procedure he follows is pretty much straight out of e.g. Altland and Simons. But you can see he knows what the procedure does.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 14 January 2014 01:32:28PM *  3 points [-]

Thanks for saying this!

My first thought after Oscar's reply was: "Well, just because Oscar didn't see it before, that doesn't prove it's not copied from some book."

Then I was ashamed: "Oh, this is a textbook example of motivated thinking. You ask experts to evaluate the claim you are not able to evaluate. If someone told you the kid is fake, you wouldn't doubt it for a second. But when an expert tells you the kid is genuine, you just find a way to ignore the evidence."

Next iteration: "Well, I definitely should increase my probability that the kid really is genius. However, it is not completely unlikely that an autistic kid who spends almost literally all his life reading scientific books could find and remember a book an expert haven't heard about. So I should update, but it's probably okay to update just a little, and wait for more reports."

Now I feel more sane, thank you!

Although, on the second thought, I should have considered not just the probability that the kid read a book Oscar doesn't know about... but also the probability that this would happen to be the first video Oscar randomly chooses to watch. And that is much smaller.

So, at this moment my belief is... well, pretty much what pragmatist wrote: "He knows what he is talking about (which is still only a weak evidence for deep insights)."

Also, I should update that not everything I find in a discussion of out local Mensa is necessarily bullshit.

Comment author: ephion 12 January 2014 04:22:02PM 3 points [-]

I am considering a possibly risky financial move, and not sure that it's a good idea.

I am planning on going back to school full time next year (getting a BS Computer Science so I expect to have a big pay raise), and I am considering purchasing a 4br house and renting out two of the bedrooms to cover mortgage payment + maintenance costs. I can do this at well under-market rent pricing (ideally offered to friends or romantic partners), so I don't feel like it'd be taking advantage of people (rent in my city is vastly overpriced and home prices are very cheap). However, I'd need to take out about $100k of debt, and I'm planning on quitting my full time job to focus on school.

I'll be getting student loans to cover living expenses and tuition (planning on living very frugally and saving most of it to pay off when I'm done), plus I'll have enough savings to cover expenses and my credit score is quite good. So I'm convinced that I'll be fine financially, but I'm pretty sure that no bank will give me a mortgage without a full time job. This necessitates tricking the banks into giving me a mortgage and then quitting my job once I'm moved in.

I'm estimating that this will reduce my monthly expenditure by $300 ($7,200 spread out over two years required to get degree). That is more than the fees involved in purchasing a home, and I'll either resell the property or continue to rent it out after I'm done.

Any thoughts on this situation?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 January 2014 05:42:38PM *  7 points [-]

You may be underestimating the amount of work involved in being a landlord. If you find financially stable, reliable, non-destructive people, it's a nice income stream. Even so, they will expect you to fix problems sooner than you might get around to doing it for yourself. You probably shouldn't count on having your rooms rented for every month, you might lose a tenant and not have one ready to replace them immediately.

All this is general knowledge. There's probably information somewhere about the expected costs to being a landlord.

It still might make sense to buy the house.

Comment author: ephion 12 January 2014 08:41:45PM 1 point [-]

Thank you! I'll take those factors into account.

Comment author: Pentashagon 12 January 2014 05:47:02PM 2 points [-]

Is anyone aware of research into long-term comas as a potential alternative to cryonics? There are small numbers of examples of people in unresponsive comas for over a decade who then awake and are at least basically functional. It seems like it might be possible with perhaps cooling (lowering the body temperature to reduce metabolism and perhaps disease progression) with heart-lung machines to keep one's body alive for an indefinite period if normal life was otherwise about to end.

tl;dr, how long can people just stay on life support?

It seems far more likely to be revived from advanced life support than from cryonics. Given pain management (or even better highly-effetive consciousness suppression) it might be possible to preserve a living brain for many decades. It's obviously going to be quite a bit more expensive than liquid nitrogen, but potentially a batched setup (one large shared bloodstream for example) with a lot more subscribers could be cheaper than current cryonics.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 13 January 2014 12:07:58AM *  1 point [-]

Temporary theraputic hypothermia is very useful for treatment of cardiac arrest and other neurological insults, as it reduces reperfusion injury and the slower inflammatory brain damage that happens in the hours and days after a period of ischemia.

As for life support, people can live for decades on tube feeding and artificial ventilation, and years on chemical feed dripped into their blood (at the cost of liver function). That's just letting normal biology proceed though, substituting some of the functions of a fully functional nervous system or other organ systems. If you are looking to try to preserve degrading function longer, or stretch out the time you have to treat something, you would want to try to replicate a state like hibernation, in which temperature and biochemical reaction rates can be lowered while maintaining the presence of actual life and repair functions. The particulars of such a state would dictate if someone who was already ill or damaged in some way stood much of a chance of surviving it. Though a lot of neurological trauma is already treated with artificial comas to reduce the brain's bloodflow and metabolic rate, and there was a recent report of successful treatment for rabies that involved a months-long induced coma.

...Though you really don't want to spend much time with your blood flow moving through tubes outside your body that you don't absolutely have to. It's just asking for infection and all sorts of clotting/embolism problems, either due to anticoagulants giving you bleeds inside your body, or your blood clotting in tubes not lined with endotheial cells and not shaped for near-perfect laminar flow, or microscopic bubbles entering the flow through a crack in the plastic too small to see. There's even indications that a large fraction of people on heart-lung machines for a single surgery have micro-embolisms throughout the brain caused by the blood issues that come about form extracorporial circulation.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 12 January 2014 03:30:38AM *  15 points [-]

A few months ago, I re-read HPMOR in its entirety, and had an insight about the Hermione / feminism issue that I'd previously missed when I wrote this comment. I never got around to saying it anywhere, so I'm saying it here:

I'd previously written:

HPMOR kinda feels off because canonically, Hermione is unambiguously the most competent person in Harry's year, and has a good chance of growing up to be the most competent person in the 'verse. Harry is kept at the center of the story by his magical connection to Voldemort. In HPMOR, in contrast, Harry is kept at the center of the story by competence and drive. It's going to be very hard to do that without it feeling like Hermione is getting shafted.

But actually, HPMOR closely parallels cannon on this point: Methods!Hermione got just as much of an intelligence upgrade as Methods!Harry did, so she's still unambiguously more competent than him, at least before repeated use of his mysterious dark side gave him a mental age-up. This is more or less explicitly pointed out in chapter 21:

She'd done better than him in every single class they'd taken. (Except for broomstick riding which was like gym class, it didn't count.) She'd gotten real House points almost every day of their first week, not for weird heroic things, but smart things like learning spells quickly and helping other students. She knew those kinds of House points were better, and the best part was, Harry Potter knew it too. She could see it in his eyes every time she won another real House point.

The that the universe is being grossly unfair to Hermione, and this is hammered home multiple times. E.g. I can't find it at the moment but I think there's a scene where Harry explains to her she can't get house points for telling adults about the secret message in the Sorting Hat. Or there's this exchange in the Self-Actualization arc (emphasis added):

She couldn't find words. She'd never been able to find words. "If you get too near Harry - you get swallowed up, and no one sees you any more, you're just something of his, everyone thinks the whole world revolves around him and..." She didn't have the words.

The old wizard nodded slowly. "It is indeed an unjust world we live in, Miss Granger. All the world now knows that it is I who defeated Grindelwald, and fewer remember Elizabeth Beckett who died opening the way so I could pass through. And yet she is remembered. Harry Potter is the hero of this play, Miss Granger; the world does revolve around him. He is destined for great things; and I ween that in time the name of Albus Dumbledore will be remembered as Harry Potter's mysterious old wizard, more than for anything else I have done. And perhaps the name of Hermione Granger will be remembered as his companion, if you prove worthy of it in your day. For this I tell you true: never will you find more glory on your own, than in Harry Potter's company."

I think what happened is that Eliezer realized how unfair the universe was to Hermione in canon, and decided to keep things that way in HPMOR but comment on it. Which is clever, but looks like Eliezer being unfair to Hermione for no good reason if you don't understand he's commenting on the screwiness of canon.

Related thing I noticed: Hermione is probably the most incredibly brave character in HPMOR. Think about it: she, as a twelve year old girl, is told she has an important job to do helping Harry, and then one of the scariest dark wizards who ever lived tries destroy her, when he doesn't succeed at that, tries to convince her to just run, and she stands her ground. As a twelve year old girl against an ultra-powerful dark wizard. And that's ultimately why she died. Make no mistake about it: she died a hero's death.

Edit: this is relevant.

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 04:12:04AM *  6 points [-]

(My thoughts are still not sufficiently organized that I’m making a top level post about this, but I think it’s worth putting out for discussion.)

A couple of years ago, in a thread I can no longer find, someone argued that they valued the pleasure they got from defecation, and that they would not want to bioengineer away the need to do so. I thought this was ridiculous.

At the same time, I see many Lesswrongers view eating as a chore that they would like to do away with. And yet I also find this ridiculous.

So I was thinking about where there difference lay for me. My working hypothesis is that there are two elements of pleasure: relief and satisfaction. Defecation, or a drink of water when you’re very thirsty bring you relief, but not really satisfaction. Eating a gourmet meal, on the other hand, may or may not bring relief, depending on how hungry you are when you eat it, but it’s very satisfying. The ultimate pleasure is sex, which culminates in a very intense sense of both relief and satisfaction. (Masturbation, at least from a male perspective, can provide the relief but only a tiny fraction of the satisfaction – hence the difference in pleasure from sex.)

I can understand the desire to minimize or eliminate the need for functions that serve only to provide relief, but I think the “let’s subsist on Soylent” people are throwing the satisfaction baby out with the relief bathwater. I suspect lack of awareness of the possibility of satisfaction as well as relief may also explain the comments I’ve seen here from people who are asexual and happy about that (but I’m less confident in this case because the inferential distance is large.)

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 12 January 2014 02:22:02PM *  6 points [-]

I would like to drink Soylent when I want to focus on something else, and to eat at a restaurant when I want to feel the pleasure of eating. Or maybe sometimes cook at home... but only when I decide to.

If I may borrow your analogy, it would be like moving from compulsively masturbating three times a day to having great sex once in a while and doing something else the rest of the time.

Comment author: Creutzer 12 January 2014 04:15:39PM 1 point [-]

Interesting distinction, it makes intuitive sense, and it's certainly good to be aware that there is a possible satisfaction component to something - but it's still easily possible to value the satisfaction less than you would value being free from the need for the relief component.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 12 January 2014 01:36:36PM *  1 point [-]

Defecation, or a drink of water when you’re very thirsty bring you relief, but not really satisfaction.

I feel that both of these can provide satisfaction as well, though I'm less sure about the water.

I can understand the desire to minimize or eliminate the need for functions that serve only to provide relief, but I think the “let’s subsist on Soylent” people are throwing the satisfaction baby out with the relief bathwater.

Or they just get more satisfaction from other things than eating.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 January 2014 05:38:07PM 2 points [-]

I can enjoy drinking water. I'm not sure where this fits on the relief-satisfaction spectrum, but I seem to be optimally hydrated (in terms of mood) if I keep drinking until drinking is no longer a pleasure-- it's a good bit more water than just taking the edge off.

I've found that when I mention this to people, they're apt to try to get a measurement out of something which is based on sensation.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 12 January 2014 01:29:20PM 1 point [-]

I would rather get rid of eating but keep defecation, though I don't know that I could say why. The relief/satisfaction thing is certainly interesting.

I once had a conversation in this vein that went like this:

  • Him: In Heaven, pizza grows on trees.
  • Me: In heaven, people wouldn't need to eat.
  • Him: Good point. But maybe eating as a form of pleasure?
  • Me: kinda flabberghasted

If nothing else, the parent got me to evaluate my preferences and realize that I was using them hypocritically in situations such as the above.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 12 January 2014 02:33:57AM 4 points [-]

Does anyone here play League? I'm AIXItl.

Comment author: Manfred 14 January 2014 10:15:46AM 1 point [-]

Adding you :P

Comment author: Will_Newsome 15 January 2014 02:15:57AM *  2 points [-]

Thanks! Added back. Hopefully you can forgive me for butting heads with you a bit in the past.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 02:14:41AM 4 points [-]

Less Wrong contains so much advice that it's impossible to follow even a large fraction of it. How should I decide what advice to actually follow?

Comment author: ChristianKl 12 January 2014 12:36:26PM 1 point [-]

I would start with looking at what are the most important issue that you face at the moment in your life.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 01:57:52AM 2 points [-]

You're trying to solve a puzzle. Maybe it's a jigsaw puzzle, maybe it's a Sudoku puzzle, maybe it's an interesting math problem. In any case, it's one of those puzzles where you know a solution when you see it, and once it's almost solved, everything falls into place.

At the moment, you're kind of stumped. You've been unable to figure out any more facts using deductive reasoning, so now it's time to resort to trial and error. You have three independent hypotheses about the puzzle. Hypothesis A seems to have an 80% chance of being right, hypothesis B a 50% chance, and hypothesis C a 20% chance. You're going to pick a hypothesis and investigate what seems to happen if this hypothesis is true.

Do you:

  • choose hypothesis A, since it's probably right and so it's likely to lead to the right answer,
  • choose hypothesis B, since this one will yield the most expected information if you figure out whether it's true or false, or
  • choose hypothesis C, since it's probably wrong and so you're likely to find a disproof, thereby giving you more information?

(Of course, assuming that a hypothesis is false is equivalent to assuming that one of these hypotheses is true.)

The answer, of course, is probably "it depends". But what does it depend on, and what's the most likely choice overall?

My first thought is that if it's a really big puzzle, then you'll pretty much only make useful progress by establishing things with certainty (since if you make an assumption you think has a probability of 80% five times, there's only a 33% chance that you were right every time), so your best bet is to assume the hypothesis that is most likely to be falsified, i.e. C. The desire for certainty overrides all other concerns.

But for a really big puzzle, it also makes sense to pick hypothesis B, and try to prove it and to disprove it, because, although you're less likely to come up with a proof, a proof will end up being more useful in this case.

If it's a small puzzle, assuming C is likely to be a waste of time. You might be best off picking hypothesis A, since this is likely to lead you straight to a solution. Or perhaps B is a better option, since now there are four ways it could be useful. You could find that there's no solution where B is true; you could find that there's no solution where B is false; you could find a solution where B is true; or you could find a solution where B is false.

Any thoughts?

Comment author: wadavis 12 January 2014 11:28:15AM 1 point [-]

At one extreme is the weekly sudoku puzzle that is completed for my own enjoyment and I am content with my mastery level. At that extreme I pick A, it is not really a goal to improve my sudoku skill, negative results contribute little.

At the other extreme are your hard coding problems, complex engineering problems, and those little bent steel puzzles that you have to take apart and reassemble in apparently impossible ways; Here the long term goal is not to solve the single problem but to learn and solve the problem type. These problems are either without an A solution, or you want greater mastery of the field so that next time only A or B solutions are on the table instead of the B and C solutions. Eventually your peers start coming to you with their A, B, C dilemmas and you can give them the right answer with 100% confidence. After that you will be known as a guru in your field and reap all the prestige and profit that comes with that (results may vary depending on field).

In short it depends on your goal, A to solve the problem, C to solve the problem type. B is a compromise if you want C but the budget doesn't allow for it.

Comment author: gedymin 13 January 2014 09:25:07PM 1 point [-]

I'd select B for the "hard coding problems", as that would give me the most information. (I'm already relatively sure that C won't work, but I may have absolutely no idea whether B would work).

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 January 2014 12:53:11AM 2 points [-]

The waterbear, a multicellular organism with neurons-- it can be frozen and revived.

Any thoughts about genetic engineering to make cryonics easier?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 12 January 2014 02:15:15AM *  2 points [-]

Being small enough to freeze solid quickly is a nonstarter.

Cells filling themselves up with trehalose (disaccharide that in many organisms including waterbears and my lab yeast serves as both a fast-degrading energy store [faster than glycogen] and protection against denaturing proteins during both desiccation and freezing) under stress is more plausible but runs afoul of the fact that large animals only have so much soluble sugar at any given time and can't make sugars from lipids - in many cases of organisms that use it as a protective feature it becomes like 10% or more of their weight.

Trying to eliminate the inflammatory response to hypoxia? No idea if that's plausible without causing immune system issues.

Comment author: JQuinton 12 January 2014 01:10:18AM 1 point [-]

I am trying to formalize what I think should be solvable by some game theory, but I don't know enough about decision theory to come up with a solution.

Let's say there are twins who live together. For some reason they can only eat when they both are hungry. This would work as long as they are both actually hungry at the same time, but let's say that one twin wants to gain weight since that twin wants to be a body builder, or one twin wants to lose weight since that twin wants to look better in a tuxedo.

At this point it seems like they have conflicting goals, so this seems like an iterated prisoner's dilemma. And it seems like if this is an iterated prisoner's dilemma, then the best strategy over the long run would be to cooperate. Is that correct, or am I wrong about something in this hypothetical?

Comment author: badger 12 January 2014 11:15:16PM *  1 point [-]

I agree with Nancy that this doesn't look like a prisoner's dilemma.

You could think about this as a dynamic game, but it seems simplest to model it as a static game with two strategies: eat heavily and eat lightly. Both have to choose eat heavily to actually eat enough to gain weight, since it sounds like both have to agree every time they eat. The payoffs then look something like:

..... Heavily | Lightly
Heavily | 1,0 | 0,1 |
Lightly | 0,1 | 0,1 |

with the bodybuilder as the row player and the model as the column player. Then (Heavily, Lightly) and (Lightly, Lightly) are both Nash Equilibria. Do those payoffs seem to capture the situation you were thinking of?

Comment author: JQuinton 28 January 2014 10:55:01PM 1 point [-]

I don't know enough about Game Theory to expect what my Nash Equilibria would look like, but what I'm trying to find out in general is how to split resources when people have to use the same pot at the same time when they have competing or contradictory goals.

So for a real life example that I think captures what I'm trying to illustrate: My brother likes to turn the air conditioner as cold as possible during the summer so that he can bundle up in a lot of blankets when he goes to sleep. I on the other hand prefer to sleep with the a/c at room temperature so that I don't have to bundle up with blankets. Sleeping without bundling up makes my brother uncomfortable, and having to sleep under a lot of blankets so I don't freeze makes me uncomfortable. We both have to use the a/c, but we have contradictory goals even though we're using the same resource at the same time. And the situation is repeated every night during the summer (thankfully I don't live with my brother, but my current new roommate seems to have the same tendency with the a/c).

Comment author: badger 29 January 2014 05:10:08PM *  1 point [-]

That example helps clarify. In the A/C situation, you and your brother aren't really starting with a game. There isn't a natural set of strategies you are each independently choosing from; instead you are selecting one temperature together. You could construct a game to help you two along in that joint decision, though. To solve the overall problem, there are two questions to be answered:

  1. Given a set of outcomes and everyone's preferences over the outcomes, which outcome should be chosen? This is studied in social choice theory, cake-cutting/fair division, and bargaining solutions.
  2. Given an answer to the first question, how do you construct a game that implements the outcome that should be chosen? This is studied in mechanism design.

One possible solution: If everything is symmetric, the result should split the resource equally, either by setting the temperature halfway between your ideal and his ideal or alternating nights where you choose your ideals. With this as a starting point, flip a coin. The winner can either accept the equal split or make a new proposal of a temperature and a payment to the other person. The second person can accept the new proposal or make a new one. Alternate proposals until one is accepted. This is roughly the Rubinstein bargaining game implementing the Nash bargaining solution with transfers.

Another possible solution: Both submit bids between 0 and 1. Suppose the high bid is p. The person with the high bid proposes a temperature. The second person can either accept that outcome or make a new proposal. If the first player doesn't accept the new proposal, the final outcome is the second player's proposal with probability p and the status quo (say alternating nights) with probability 1-p. This is Moulin's implementation of the Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining solution.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 January 2014 05:26:39PM 1 point [-]

I don't think it's an exact match for a prisoner's dilemma because (as described) they don't have a shared goal like not going to prison. if they have an overarching shared goal like being happy with each other, the situation is different.

Comment author: Alsadius 11 January 2014 05:01:48AM 8 points [-]

I'm having some trouble keeping myself from browsing to timesink websites at work(And I'm self-employed, so it's not like I'm even getting paid for it). Anyone know of a good Chrome app for blocking websites?

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 03:52:02AM 2 points [-]

StayFocusd

Comment author: cousin_it 11 January 2014 01:20:12AM 4 points [-]

I started reading the Culture novels by Iain M. Banks and can't get over the biggest plot hole: where's the flood of people wanting to immigrate into the Culture, and what happens to them?

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 03:55:01AM 1 point [-]

Somewhere in the books, I think in Look to Windward, it's pointed out that ambassadors to the Culture end up assimilated and serving unofficially as ambassadors for the Culture instead.

Also, the Culture appears to have trillions of citizens. You could have a large amount of immigration and still not see much of the impact.

Comment author: Dr_Manhattan 11 January 2014 01:43:15AM 4 points [-]

He touches on that in "Consider Phlebas". Basically there were other technologically advanced civs with different values, not everyone wanted to join the Culture.

Another possible explanation is that the ship Minds controlled immigration in non-obvious ways (memetic weaponry).

Comment author: pan 10 January 2014 09:19:14PM 8 points [-]

I see from time to time people mention a 'rationalist house' as though it is somewhere they live, and everyone else seems to know what they're talking about. What are are they talking about? Are there many of these? Are these in some way actually planned places or just an inside joke of some kind?

Comment author: jkaufman 16 January 2014 08:32:32PM 3 points [-]

Expanding on Ben's comment: local lesswrong meetup groups often grow into a communities of people who enjoy spending time together, at which point some of the people might decide to rent a house together.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 11 January 2014 12:59:39AM 4 points [-]

These are group houses where a bunch of rationalists live together. Sometimes they hold events for the wider community or host visiting rationalists from out of town. I know of several that exist in the Bay Area, one in Boston, and one in New York. There are probably others.

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 10:50:48PM 4 points [-]

http://mikhailvladimirovich.tumblr.com/post/72908158199/polytheism-as-a-guide-to-morality Some thoughts I had on polytheism as a human-implementable moral system rather than as a factual question.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 11 January 2014 04:26:21AM 1 point [-]

Reminds me of my not-quite-awake-dream-state encounters with Q from Star Trek.

Quoting part of an old comment of mine:

I can, though, relay an interesting experience I had in unintentionally constructing some kind of similar mental archetype while dreaming that kind of stuck around in my mind for a while. I didn't reach into any pantheon though, my mind reached to a mythology which has had its claws in my psyche since childhood - star trek. Q is always trolling the crew of the Enterprise for humanity's benefit, in attempts to get them to meet their potential and progress in understanding or test them. He was there, and let's just say I was thoroughly trolled in a dream, in ways that emphasized certain capabilities of mine that I was not using. And just before waking up he specifically told me that he would be watching me with my own eyes since he was actully part of me that normally didn't speak. That sense of part of me watching and making sure I actually did what I was capable of stuck around for over a week.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2014 07:12:04PM 2 points [-]

This Washington Post piece discusses motivated reasoning, and how given a grouping of the exact same reforms, you can strongly influence whether or not people think it is a good policy by changing the affiliation of the group that endorses it.

Ergo: 5 reforms, labeled blue solutions to green problems, blues like, greens don't. Same 5 reforms labeled green solutions to blue problem, greens like them and blues don't.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-depressing-psychological-theory-that-explains-washington/

Comment author: CAE_Jones 10 January 2014 12:07:22PM 3 points [-]

Again frustrated with being unable to type properly while standing, and remembering how my (no longer usable) braille devices made doing so trivial, I wrote a comment praising the utility of braille input. Then I realized this was dumb, and did an experiment to put my braille typing speed against my qwerty typing speed, using a braille keyboard simulator.

I found that my qwerty speed was over 100WPM; there were no typoes in the test, but I've been known to double-capitalize, drop 'e's, and misplace 'h's quite frequently in the wild.

My braille typing speed was ~76WPM, with an average of one typo every 10 words or so.

I looked up standard typing speeds for qwerty and smart phones, and found that my qwerty speed is above average (80WPM seems to be generally considered impressive), and Typing on Smart Phones is horribly slow, ~25WPM on average (Presumably this was compared with the ~50-70WPM professional qwerty average).

I couldn't find stats on the average typing speed in braille, though this experimental app attempts something similar with touch-screens. See also chorded keyboards.

(I should also note that I'm out of practice with typing quickly in braille; I haven't used a braille input device as a primary device since 2006. I'm also atypically proficient with braille in general. I also expect my qwerty WPM would be lower in the wild than when explicitly tested.)

Comment author: Apprentice 09 January 2014 11:09:55PM 10 points [-]

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked? I figured that once this got to -5 karma it would disappear from view and be forgotten. But it just keeps going down and it's now at -12. This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

What does etiquette suggest I do here? Am I supposed to delete the post to keep people from falling into the trap of reading it? But I like the discussion it spawned and I'd like to preserve it. I'm at a loss and I can't find relevant advice at the wiki.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 02:20:07PM *  12 points [-]

This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

Not necessarily. Seeing a heavily downvoted post seems to trigger some kind of group-norm-reinforcement instinct in me: I often end up wanting to read it in the hopes of it being just as bad as the downvotes imply, so that I could join in the others in downvoting it. And I actually get pleasure out of being able to downvote it.

I'm not very proud of acting on that impulse, especially since I'm not going to be able to objectively evaluate a post's merit if I start reading it while hoping it to be bad. But sometimes I do act on it regardless. (I didn't do that with your post, though.)

Comment author: Apprentice 11 January 2014 03:21:07PM 4 points [-]

I hadn't thought of this either! It does sound like fun to hunt with the group.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:44:41PM 2 points [-]

It does sound like fun to hunt with the group.

Don't forget to bring your own torch and pitchfork.

Comment author: hyporational 10 January 2014 09:22:43PM 2 points [-]

Well, I didn't bother to look this time, but if every bad post got just -5 votes max, the noise would probably unbearable. The extra sting is there for you, not to warn other readers.

Comment author: Apprentice 10 January 2014 10:17:12PM 2 points [-]

Thank you, I hadn't considered that viewpoint.

I actually suspect we have too much sting rather than too little. Compare with this discussion. Furthermore, most of Eliezer's Facebook posts would make good discussion posts or open-thread comments but he posts them there rather than here. I don't know why but maybe he finds it less stressful to post in a system where there are only upvotes and no downvotes.

Also compare with this Oatmeal comic: "How I feel after reading 1,000 insightful, positive comments about my work and one negative one: The whole internet hates me :(" Obviously an exaggeration for effect but I do think most people need a very high ratio of positive to negative feedback to feel good about what they're doing. I admit I do. Many of you, of course, are made of sterner stuff, I don't dispute that.

Comment author: hyporational 11 January 2014 06:06:26AM *  2 points [-]

I don't instinctively like downvotes either, and I suspect it's mostly my personality that magnifies everything negative out of proportion i.e. there's depressive bias. However, if I get downvoted for something really stupid, I find the punishment a very useful deterrent that also works for my personal life. It's the inexplicable votes that bug me the most, but hey, you can't please everyone.

I subscribed to Eliezer's fb feed about a month ago and I'm glad he doesn't post such unpolished ideas here. I think he also posts there because the commenters are better selected and not anonymous. I might be in favor of an upvote only system, if it weren't for the really terrible outlier posters who need to be hidden quickly. For upvotes only , we would need a completely different visibility system.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 10 January 2014 08:40:45AM *  13 points [-]

if we don't have downvoted topics some of the time it means we are being too conservative about what we judge will be useful to others. Only worry if too large a fraction of your stuff gets downvoted.

Comment author: Alejandro1 12 January 2014 06:32:23PM 4 points [-]

That is a good example of a true Umeshism.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 01:02:47AM *  10 points [-]

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked?

Grin and say "Fuck 'em!"

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 06:38:28AM 2 points [-]

Just leave it. It can serve as lesson to you in the future but in a month no one but you will remember it as it falls off the scroll.

Comment author: ChristianKl 09 January 2014 11:36:35PM 4 points [-]

Giving that the post does contain upvoted comments that belong to it deleting it would prevent people from seeing those comments and be bad.

Comment author: David_Gerard 09 January 2014 11:22:30PM 3 points [-]

-12 points in the discussion section is a pretty trivial karma hit out o.f the 1132 I see you have at this moment. I'd try to do better next time.

Comment author: Apprentice 09 January 2014 11:32:32PM 5 points [-]

Clearly, the karma as such is no problem. I just don't want to annoy people by having them read a text which they are likely to find annoying and I don't want to violate rules of etiquette I might not know about. But if it is normal procedure just to leave this as is, then, sure, let's do it that way.

It is, of course, somewhat unpleasant to discover that something you wrote is disliked but it also affords an opportunity for learning. Next time I try to get LessWrongers to change diapers, I'll approach it differently.

Comment author: Emile 10 January 2014 06:50:29AM 11 points [-]

Eh, if someone clicks on an article at -11, then feels reading it was a waste of time, he should blame himself, not you.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 01:00:07AM 2 points [-]

It is, of course, somewhat unpleasant to discover that something you wrote is disliked but it also affords an opportunity for learning.

I don't recommend optimizing for what other people on the 'net like.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 January 2014 01:37:16AM 5 points [-]

Don't optimize for it. On the other hand it's still good to understand what other people like if you want to convince them.

I do write post that I expect to be voted down, when I think they have merit. On the other hand if I can write a post in a way that will be voted down or in a way that will find acceptance I go for the way that will find acceptance.

Comment author: moridinamael 09 January 2014 04:44:28PM 11 points [-]

After doing a large amount of research, I feel fairly confident saying that high-dose Potassium supplementation was the initial trigger that pushed me into two-year nightmare struggle with migraines which I am still dealing with. I didn't do anything beyond the recommendations that you can find on gwern's page and gwern doesn't really recomend anything that is technically unsafe, but the fact is that (apparently!) some people are migraine prone and these people should probably definitely not do what I did. (To be clear, I'm not blaming gwern in any way, that's merely a "community reference" that a lot of folks refer to.)

Comment author: RomeoStevens 10 January 2014 08:35:43AM *  6 points [-]

Interesting, some questions.
1. What is high dose?
2. How was the dosing achieved?
3. What is your sodium and magnesium intake like?

Comment author: drethelin 09 January 2014 08:49:25PM 5 points [-]

Can you link to your more important sources from you research? They could be useful to others.

Comment author: blacktrance 09 January 2014 03:25:21PM 10 points [-]

All the productivity posts on LW that I've read, I found mildly disturbing. They all give a sense of excessive regimentation, as well as giving up enjoyable activity - sacrificing a lot for a single goal (or a few goals). I'm sure it's good for getting work done, but there's more to life than work - there's actually enjoying life, having fun, etc.

Comment author: ephion 12 January 2014 04:27:43PM 2 points [-]

I agree tentatively. I'm working on maximizing my productivity per hour so that I can spend less hours being productive. Productivity measures are really helpful in that regard, but the temptation to take it too far is problematic.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 09 January 2014 05:55:54PM 8 points [-]

I think you're talking about So8res's recent posts, but I think they're exceptional. Most productivity posts are about avoiding spending time web surfing, particularly during time that has been budgeted for work. They do this partly because fragmenting time is bad and partly because there are better ways to have fun.

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 12:58:30AM 3 points [-]

I find that doing fun things like web surfing makes unenjoyable work more bearable, even though it takes longer. And I do think that most productivity posts are about more than not spending time on the Internet - there's a lot about how to cut down on social time and "fun" so you can be as productive as possible.

Comment author: chairbender 10 January 2014 03:05:20AM *  4 points [-]

I find that doing fun things like web surfing makes unenjoyable work more bearable

If you learn mindfulness, you can learn to detach yourself from an impulsive desire to be entertained constantly, and find flow (and happiness, or at least contentment) in tasks you previously thought were unenjoyable.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 05:24:04AM 2 points [-]

Can you or anyone else sketch out some advice on how to achieve this wonderful sounding thing?

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 09 January 2014 09:34:20PM 2 points [-]

Most productivity posts are about avoiding spending time web surfing

To avoid paradox, it is probably better to print those posts and read them from the paper.

But yes, it is a good advice, which probably brings more productivity gains than any other advice.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 10 January 2014 12:18:03AM 2 points [-]

While the direct advice may be valuable, I don't think it's so common; I'm talking about posts that take it as a given and talk about ways to beat addiction, such as leechblock, pomodoros, and conditioning. Other suggestions, like recording time spent, manually or by browser plugin are about convincing people that they are wasting their time, on the hypothesis that people won't believe the raw claim.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 09 January 2014 05:04:47PM 4 points [-]

Can you give any concrete examples?

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 01:39:27AM 4 points [-]

Habitual Productivity

[I]n the end, there wasn't really a compromise. The productivity side just flat-out won: I eventually realized that human interaction is necessary for mental health and that a solid social network is invaluable. I don't mean to imply that I engage in social interaction because I've calculated that it's necessary: I really do enjoy social interaction, and I really want to be able to enjoy it without guilt... I've found an excuse that allows me to both enjoy myself and sate the thirst. That said, it's still difficult for me to disengage sometimes.

The mechanics of my recent productivity

[T]his stint was rough. I experienced far more stress than my norm. I lost a little weight and twice caught myself grinding my teeth in my sleep (a new experience). There were days that I became mentally exhausted, growing obstinate and stubborn as if sleep- or food-deprived.

How I Am Productive (Miscellaneous extreme regimentation)

There are other posts that give me this impression, but I can't find them right now. Also, the "optimal sleep" posts seem to be all about how to sleep as little as possible to be as productive as possible.

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 06:49:52AM 3 points [-]

Yeah all the obsession with polyphasic sleep seems to be about sacrificing quality of life for quantity of "productive" time.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 05:05:19PM *  3 points [-]
Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 04:37:19PM *  2 points [-]

This is a request for information. We all know about the force of a first impression on other people, but here's something I'm extremely confused about: how easy is it to spoil somebody's impression of you when you have already known them for a bit? I'm asking this from a male perspective, but with respect to both inter- and intra-gender interactions. I'd appreciate both scientific studies (I'm not aware of any) and personal experience, because I really have no clue. My past interactions with people have been extremely high-variance in this respect, I don't want to generalize from the example of myself, and figuring out the answer in any given individual case to gather more data is not trivial due to the noisiness of signals in social communication and the costs of asking explicitly.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2014 12:59:08AM 4 points [-]

An interesting case is a behavior that makes an initial good impression, but will sour a relationship when continued. Sharp sarcasm or negative joking is the most common example I've observed.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 06:20:36PM 2 points [-]

how easy is it to spoil somebody's impression of you when you have already known them for a bit?

Spoiling is trivially easy -- just mention that you like to torture kittens in your spare time.

Without such drastic admissions, are you really asking whether someone's opinion of you can radically decrease without you doing anything that seems out of the ordinary to you? I guess, but you also have to keep in mind the difference between what the other person things and what s/he is willing to show.

For example, let's say Alice and Bob meet. Alice doesn't really like Bob but she is polite so she doesn't show it in an obvious fashion plus she hopes that maybe Bob isn't as bad as he looks. After a bit of time Alice's opinion of Bob is still the same but now she sees less reason to be polite and have decided that yes, Bob is as bad as he looks. From the Bob's point of view it looks as if Alice took a sudden dislike to him, but from Alice's point of view she just allowed herself to show her true attitude which didn't change much.

Comment author: VAuroch 09 January 2014 08:18:50AM 4 points [-]

Recently attempted to read Julian Barbour's The End of Time, primarily on Eliezer's recommendation and found myself stalling out because it wasn't presenting any information which felt new to me. I am currently weighing whether it is worth pushing onward in the hopes of finding meatier material later.

Has anyone else read it after having read the Quantum Physics sequence, and what were their thoughts?

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 03:44:11AM *  5 points [-]

Every single time the subject of overpopulation comes up and I offer my opinion (which is that in some respects the world is overpopulated and that it would benefit us to have a smaller or negative population growth rate), I seem to get one or two negative votes. The negative karma isn't nearly as important to me as the idea that I might be missing some fundamental idea and that those who downvote me are actually right.

Especially, this recent thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jgg/we_need_new_humans_please_help/ has highlighted this issue for me again.

So, I'm opening my mind, trying to set aside my biases, and hereby asking all those who disagree with me to give me a rational argument for why I'm wrong and why the world needs more people. If I stray from my objective and take a biased viewpoint, I deserve all the negative karma you can throw at me.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 04:18:53PM *  2 points [-]

It's an argument based on false premises. Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward. Every time we think we've hit a wall(running out of wood in the 18th century, whales in the 19th century, food in the 20th century, or oil in the 21st century), we've come up with new technologies to keep going without much trouble(coal, oil, GMOs/agricultural chemistry, and tar sands/fracking respectively). Limitations on space are even less relevant.

Conversely, we've built first-world societies on a governmental safety net that only actually works with an increasing population. If we don't grow, then pension plans will start detonating like someone's carpet-bombing the economy. (Yes, worse than they are already). I think the people who created those pyramid schemes should be taken out behind the woodshed for a posthumous beatdown, but it's a bit late to fix it now.

If you want to know what a negative population growth rate looks like, look at what will happen to China over the next couple decades. It's the biggest demographic time bomb in human history.

Also, if you're bringing sustainability into this, IMO the only truly sustainable option is to advance technology so fast that we can defeat the Second Law somehow. Anything else just delays the inevitable.

Comment author: knb 12 January 2014 03:03:41AM 4 points [-]

It's an argument based on false premises. Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward.

This isn't even slightly true. Historically the the normal state for humanity was malthusian stagnation. Resource limits were a hard fact of life, with lots of people starving at the margins.

Yes, we've escaped from Malthusian conditions for the time being, but progress is already stagnating. I think planning to limit population growth is a common sense idea, although as a coordination problem, this seems hard to solve (how do we punish defectors, etc.)

Comment author: Alsadius 12 January 2014 05:33:49AM *  3 points [-]

We are currently producing enough food to feed the highest population the Earth is expected to ever at any point have. We are doing so in perfectly sustainable fashion. Malthus is dead.

Edit: For clarity, the sustainable fashion I refer to may involve shifts to less meat consumption, between different sorts of crops, or the substitution of machinery with more labour, to deal with various future crises. Modern crops and farming knowledge alone, which should both survive even a collapse of civilization largely intact, ought to be enough to feed any projected human population. It's theoretically possible for Mathus to come back, but the conditions that would lead to it are so unlikely that for the purposes of ordinary debate it can safely be said to be a fixed problem.

Comment author: kalium 12 January 2014 10:49:03PM 1 point [-]

Have you read The Mote In God's Eye?

Comment author: Creutzer 12 January 2014 05:36:10PM 1 point [-]

We are, in point of fact, not feeding that population you are talking about. We are feeding merely a part of it.

Comment author: Alsadius 14 January 2014 11:48:13PM *  3 points [-]

We're feeding essentially all of it - out of a world population of over 7,000,000,000, about 400,000 die of malnutrition per year. World food production per person is as high as it's ever been, over 2700 calories per person per day(which is really not a starvation diet). The ones who aren't getting fed are dying for logistical, financial, and administrative reasons, not because there's any sort of global food shortage.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 03:03:01PM *  1 point [-]

Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward.

As far as I can tell, this argument seems to be the same as "technology has improved before, letting us overcome resource limitations, and there's no particular reason to believe that the new innovations will stop coming".

But that sounds much more suspect. There have been cultures that collapsed due to resource limitations before, and the current trend of very fast growth in our ability to extract more resources or replace them with more easily extractable ones has only been going on for some hundreds of years. "We will always be able to come up with the kinds of innovations that will save us" is a very strong claim, implying that observed cases of diminishing returns in various extraction techniques (e.g. taking advantage of tar sands requires a much larger energy investment and is much less efficient than traditional sources of oil, AFAIK) don't matter since we'll always be able to switch something completely different. There don't seem to be any strong theoretical arguments in support of that, as far as I can tell - only the observation that we've happened to manage it of late.

Comment author: Alsadius 12 January 2014 05:32:33AM 2 points [-]

It's a somewhat weaker claim. Society isn't really dependant on any single resource - oil is the closest we come, and even oil is only really essential in aviation and certain chemical processes(and it can be synthesized for that). My claim is closer to "No essential combination of resources will run out before replacement technology is available". Still strong, admittedly, but weaker.

That said, I will freely agree that we're going to take a financial hit as certain supplies run low. Oil will likely never again be as cheap as it was 20 years ago, because the extraction of our reserve oil supplies is so much more complex and expensive. It won't be pleasant. But our society has a technological mindset, huge diversification, and a larger base of wealth than all of humanity before living memory combined. I think we'll do better than Easter Island did.

And yes, there's no theoretical reason it has to be true. But the accumulated evidence that it generally is is pretty strong. How many of the catastrophes predicted in recent centuries have actually come to pass, if society has had 5+ years to prepare? Peak oil, the population bomb, nuclear war, Y2K, expansionist Germans(twice!), the collapse of the Internet, and on and on. All of those were perfectly real concerns, and had the potential to be devastating if left unchecked. But we saw them coming, took steps to deal with it, and beat back all of them, many so thoroughly that nobody even noticed that they'd been and gone.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 04:29:20PM 6 points [-]

If you want to know what a negative population growth rate looks like, look at what will happen to China over the next couple decades.

Or you can look at Japan right now. Their total workforce has been contracting for the last few years and the only way to go is down. And their amount of government debt is not a coincidence.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 07:54:34PM 1 point [-]

Yup, them too. Both were held up as countries that were going to overwhelm the US through their superior economic performance, both are going to suffer long and agonizing collapses as their demography ruins them. I went with the more topical example, but Japan is probably the better one, because they're so much further along.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 08:04:44PM 2 points [-]

long and agonizing collapses

A "long collapse" is a bit of an oxymoron -- presumably you mean they will collapse and stay collapsed.

But that raises an interesting question -- can a society/country downscale without a collapse? Theoretically, it's perfectly doable -- you population decreases, so does your GDP but not GDP per capita. You just have more space for less people.

In practice, of course, there are issues.

Comment author: lmm 11 January 2014 11:33:15AM 1 point [-]

Taking away the pensions of people who've paid a tax that's supposed to fund pensions all their lives would be political suicide.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:00:15PM *  3 points [-]

It depends on what the alternative is.

If you have nothing to pay pensions with, you have nothing to pay pensions with. See Detroit.

For sovereigns who can print fiat money the situation is a bit more complicated but the same in medium term. The amount of money doesn't matter, what matters is the amount of value that the country produces and which it then redistributes among people. If there is not enough value, printing money will just lead you into an inflationary spiral.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 08:12:10PM 2 points [-]

I don't regard "collapse" as referring to something instantaneous. The fall of Rome, for example, could be referred to as a multi-century collapse.

And in principle, yes, it could happen. But in practice, before people die, they get old. And old people suck, economically speaking.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 10 January 2014 06:11:55PM 2 points [-]

We can beat the pension-based need for more people by vastly increasing productivity and ameliorating the effects of old age and/or automating more of the care of debilitated people

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 08:08:37PM *  4 points [-]

by vastly increasing productivity

And how will this happen? The productivity growth has slowed down considerably and shows no signs of picking up, never mind "vastly increasing".

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 02:43:22PM 2 points [-]

Well, there was at least one report suggesting that half of all jobs might be automated over the next two decades.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:11:07PM 3 points [-]

You are overstating the report's conclusions -- it said the "jobs might be at risk" which sounds to me like "we want to sound impressive but actually don't have anything to say".

I've paged through the report and wasn't impressed. For example (emphasis mine), "...First, together with a group of ML researchers, we subjectively hand-labelled 70 occupations, assigning 1 if automatable, and 0 if not. ... Our label assignments were based on eyeballing the O∗NET tasks and job description of each occupation." Essentially this a bunch of guesses and opinions with little support in the way of evidence.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 07:57:52PM 1 point [-]

Productivity, agreed.

Ameliorating the effects of old age, disagree - too many people treat retirement at 65 to be a God-given right for any real bump in the retirement age to solve things any time soon. Remember, this was an age set by Otto von Bismarck, and it's remained unchanged since - we've already had massive increases in quality of life for the elderly, and it's done nothing to improve the financial footings of the pension system(Quite the opposite, really).

Automating the care of the elderly will help some, but you're still left with extremely low workforce participation and a very high dependent ratio. That's not a pleasant situation, even if you don't need millions of people working in nursing homes.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 04:17:37AM 11 points [-]

Well, let's try to be a bit more specific about this.

First, what does the claim that "the world is overpopulated" mean? It implies a metric of some sort to which we can point and say "this is too high", "this is too low", "this is just right". I am not sure what this metric might be.

The simplest metric used in biology is an imminent population crash -- if the current count of some critters in an ecosystem is pretty sure to rapidly contract soon we'd probably speak of overpopulation. That doesn't seem to be the case with respect to humans now.

Second, the overpopulation claim is necessarily conditional on a specific level of technology. It is pretty clear that the XXI technology can successfully sustain more people than, say, the pre-industrial technology. One implication is that future technological progress is likely to change whatever number we consider to be the sustainable carrying capacity of Earth now.

Third, and here things get a bit controversial, it all depends (as usual) on your terminal goals. If your wish is for peace and comfort of Mother Gaia, well, pretty much any number of humans is overpopulation. But let's take a common (though by no means universal) goal of long-term economic wealth. We want to create value and keep on creating more of it for a long time. Given this, you want more humans since that will accelerate the process up until certain limits. Where these limits are is debatable but I haven't seen much evidence that we are facing them right now.

Fourth, overpopulation is pretty local. Taking the simplest possible measure of land area, it's hard to argue that countries like Russia or Canada or Australia are overpopulated.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 09 January 2014 01:50:12PM 4 points [-]

If your wish is for peace and comfort of Mother Gaia, well, pretty much any number of humans is overpopulation

Not if Mother Gaia is expansionist.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 09 January 2014 02:31:18PM 2 points [-]

Fourth, overpopulation is pretty local. Taking the simplest possible measure of land area, it's hard to argue that countries like Russia or Canada or Australia are overpopulated.

There's a reason they don't have many people per square mile. It's really difficult to live in large parts of them.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 03:27:02PM 4 points [-]

Southern Siberia, for example, is pretty benevolent and pretty empty.

Comment author: Manfred 09 January 2014 04:15:52AM 9 points [-]

I don't recall downvoting you, but I think that there is a very high chance technology makes the problem moot - either by killing us or by alleviating scarcity until a superintelligence happens.

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 05:47:04AM *  1 point [-]

I agree with you that future technology will probably allow us to sustain far far greater population than we can now. However, my view concerns problems were are creating at the present, and not all present problems can be retroactively solved with future technology. For instance, if you value biodiversity in the natural world (and there are good, practical reasons to do so), and biodiversity is lost, it's irreversible. Once the gene pool of a species is wiped out it is extremely difficult to restore it again. And sure, even though species go instinct all the time irrespective of human activity, throughout the history of the planet, the long-term trend of biodiversity has been to go up.

Now, as to whether human activity is decreasing biodiversity, it's a complex subject and I don't claim to be very knowledgeable about it. As far as I've heard in the scientific literature, humans are negatively affecting biodiversity.

A very nice review of human activity and socioeconomic progress and their impact on biodiversity is given in this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X11001051

This book does a nice job of explaining the interrelationships between biodiversity, poverty, and overpopulation: http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?index=books&linkCode=qs&keywords=111842848X

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 12:30:40AM 9 points [-]

If you're expecting the singularity within a century, does it make sense to put any thought into eugenics except for efforts to make it easy to avoid the worst genetic disorders?

Comment author: David_Gerard 09 January 2014 11:12:22AM *  4 points [-]

This could be generalised to putting any thought into anything. Will the singularity be achieved within one childhood? More smart people may be useful to apply to the problem. If you're smart, make more smart people.

Comment author: Nornagest 09 January 2014 01:05:04AM *  5 points [-]

That seems to depend on a number of assumptions -- your timeline, whether you expect a soft or a hard takeoff, the centrality of raw intelligence vs. cultural effects to research quality, possible nonlinearity of network effects on intellectual output. But I'd bet that the big one is time: if you think (unrealistically, but run with it) that you can improve a test population's intelligence by 50%, that could be very significant if you're expecting a 2100 singularity but likely won't be if you're expecting one before they graduate from college.

Comment author: Manfred 09 January 2014 04:21:36AM *  2 points [-]

Good point. The cutoff is not necessarily the singularity, either - once we have sufficiently awesome genetic engineering, there's no point to eugenics.

Comment author: Lambda 09 January 2014 05:12:58AM 3 points [-]

I've been lurking here for a while, but I'd like to get more actively involved.

By the way, are there any other Yale students here? If so, I'd be interested in founding a rationalist group / LW meetup on campus.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 09 January 2014 07:49:33AM 8 points [-]

The standard advice for starting a physical group is to just pick a timeframe and a nice location, then show up with a good book and stay for the duration. Either other people show up and you've got your meetup, or else you spend a couple hours with a good book.

PM me if you want to talk about founding a group. I ran the Boston community for a while, and it was one of the most rewarding things I've ever done.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 09:15:58PM 9 points [-]

Finally have a core mechanic for my edugame about Bayesian networks. At least on paper.

This should hopefully be my last post before I actually have a playable prototype done, even if a very short one (like the tutorial level or something).

Comment author: CAE_Jones 08 January 2014 07:54:53PM 11 points [-]

I'm planning to meet with my local Department of Services for the Blind tomorrow; the stated purpose of the meeting is to discuss upcoming life changes/needs/etc. This appears to be exactly what I need at the moment, but I'm concerned that I'm not going to be optimally prepared, so I'd like to post some details here to increase the chances of useful feedback.

(For transparency's sake: I'm legally blind, unemployed, living with my parents until they take the necessary steps to get me moved into the place I own, with student loan payments outpacing my SSI benefits by over $200/month, and stuck in the bible belt.)

  • The plan to move out will doubtless frame the conversation.
  • I'm unsure as to whether this conversation will be private (me talking to a DSB representative), or if one of my parents will sit in. Who is in earshot matters, since for all the problems I have with my parents, they are the entirety of my support system at the moment, and the less risk to that relationship the better.
  • Most important topic: Training. My skills across the board are pathetic, yet I've been unable to improve them independently in the time since I've realized this (most of the past year and a half, IIRC). I find myself drawn toward the National Federation of the Blind's training centers, but those involve a hefty time investment (six months), and the prices I've found suggest it would cost ~$3600/month, not to mention travel. This is exactly the sort of thing I would expect DSB to help with, but at the same time, I don't consider it unlikely that I'll be pushed toward cheaper, more local options. (My research over the past several months has reduced my confidence that the more local options are of much value.)
  • I feel I would greatly benefit from a functional Notetaker. The one I was previously using has stopped functioning. I'm worried about this one; I expect that anything for which DSB provides assistance will need directing toward a tangible goal, possibly with a narrower subset than "I can get much more done with it than I could hope to with just a laptop". (I could write an entire post on why I think Notetakers are awesome, but this is already quite lengthy.)

I'm unsure as to how I will approach these topics, or the meeting as a whole, or if there are other issues I've missed/neglected/been mistaken about.

I do not like being a net drain on resources; managing this correctly seems the most viable path to reversing that.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 09 January 2014 07:17:59PM 13 points [-]

I was absurdly lucky: the counselor I spoke to is new and motivated to put in the necessary effort for everything, and went to high school with my stepmother; it also turns out that the in-state training center has a thirty-day trial period, during which commitment is a non-issue. They also offered to provide any required technology, be it laptops or note takers or whatever. It could start as early as the first week of February, which is early enough that I wouldn't need to worry about security at my property. So on the whole, a surprisingly good day.

Comment author: WalterL 13 January 2014 07:53:04PM 2 points [-]

Glad to hear it!

Comment author: TheOtherDave 09 January 2014 07:57:35PM 4 points [-]

That's awesome. Go you!

Comment author: rhollerith_dot_com 09 January 2014 11:57:32AM *  6 points [-]

If you have not dealt with something the DSB before, you're probably drastically overestimating how much mental effort they are willing to expend to help you. (I dealt with a similar agency, the California Department of Rehabilitation, many years ago.)

Although it is of course good for you to try to estimate how much mental effort they are willing to make in real time during the interview, I suggest the plan you go into the meeting with assume it is low. E.g. you might consider just asking for a notetaker over and over again.

Try to appear a little dumber than you actually are.

I would not risk alienating your parents to try for a deeper conversation with DSB staff.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 09 January 2014 07:32:05AM 3 points [-]

It looks like you've already got a list of things you want to answer in the meeting, so you've already done the most important preparation.

I'm unsure as to whether this conversation will be private (me talking to a DSB representative), or if one of my parents will sit in.

This is probably under your control. I expect you have the right to a private meeting, if you ask the DSB rep. If you're worried about how your parents would react to such a request, maybe try framing it as practicing your independence, or something appropriately harmless and fuzzy-sounding?

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 04:06:10PM *  8 points [-]

i plan to quit my job and move to an Eastern European country with small costs of living in march. Because of this I am looking for any job that I can do online for around 20 hours a week. I am looking for recommendations on where to look, where to ask, who to contact that might help me, etc. Any help will be appreciated.

Comment author: Nawth 14 January 2014 10:09:53PM 1 point [-]

Yvain wrote a good thing about this sort of situation here.

I suggest you read the comments too, they have some interesting ideas that aren't in the post proper.

Comment author: philh 08 January 2014 11:59:55PM 1 point [-]

I have a friend who uses http://tutor.com .

Comment author: pragmatist 09 January 2014 04:42:25AM *  2 points [-]

You need to live in US or Canada to work for tutor.com. At least, that's what it says on their application page.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 04:19:24PM 4 points [-]

What skills do you have?

Comment author: somervta 08 January 2014 10:54:32PM 1 point [-]

Freelancer.com is worthwhile.

Comment author: drethelin 08 January 2014 10:39:39PM 1 point [-]

You can play online poker. If you play the numbers you can make a steady profit.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 10:45:13PM *  2 points [-]

Been there, done that. I stopped back in 2010 when it became clear that the US will manage to forbid its citizens to play with everyone else as I assumed the games will become even less profitable.

I imagine that things are even worse now but I haven't looked into it for ages, however if you think there's still money in there then maybe I should investigate.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 08 January 2014 11:25:40PM 3 points [-]

Holidays can still be decent. I also hear tell there are bitcoin denominated poker rooms full of relatively bad players.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 11:33:53PM 2 points [-]

bitcoin denominated poker rooms full of relatively bad players.

What? I thought all btc poker rooms are scams and/or almost void of players. This is awesome if true though, I will check it out.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 08 January 2014 02:01:52PM 8 points [-]
Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 12:35:59PM 9 points [-]

In light of gwern's good experiences with one, I too now have an anonymous feedback form. You can use it to send me feedback on my personality, writing, personal or professional conduct, or anything else.

Comment author: knb 10 January 2014 02:36:42AM *  4 points [-]

The CEO of a company I used to work at put up an anonymous feedback form. He was getting a lot of negative feedback, so he removed it.

Problem solved.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 03:19:28PM 5 points [-]

Easy mockery aside, a lot of employees like to gripe, and if the feedback was just the sort of useless whining that 1% of the workforce loves to engage in, then I'd shut it down too(or, possibly more maliciously, leave it up for morale and stop reading it).

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 11 January 2014 12:31:55AM 2 points [-]

It's an interesting problem. A small proportion of the complaints might be about something urgent--- how do you sort them out from the minor or irrelevant stuff?

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 09 January 2014 09:12:16PM *  2 points [-]

Thanks Kaj. This was the nudge I needed to create my own anonymous feedback form.

Comment author: rhollerith_dot_com 09 January 2014 12:37:45PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: philh 08 January 2014 02:48:02PM 7 points [-]
Comment author: Locaha 08 January 2014 08:39:54PM 1 point [-]

LessWrong is rationalist Reddit.

Where is rationalist 4chan?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 08:56:13PM 14 points [-]