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Open Thread for January 8 - 16 2014

5 Post author: tut 08 January 2014 12:14PM

If it's worth saying but not worth its own thread even in discussion it goes here.

Comments (343)

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 12:35:59PM 9 points [-]

In light of gwern's good experiences with one, I too now have an anonymous feedback form. You can use it to send me feedback on my personality, writing, personal or professional conduct, or anything else.

Comment author: DaFranker 08 January 2014 12:54:24PM 3 points [-]

Hadn't heard about this until now. That sounds like a great idea, and thanks / props for putting this up!

Comment author: philh 08 January 2014 02:48:02PM 7 points [-]
Comment author: rhollerith_dot_com 09 January 2014 12:37:45PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: ChrisHallquist 09 January 2014 09:12:16PM *  2 points [-]

Thanks Kaj. This was the nudge I needed to create my own anonymous feedback form.

Comment author: knb 10 January 2014 02:36:42AM *  4 points [-]

The CEO of a company I used to work at put up an anonymous feedback form. He was getting a lot of negative feedback, so he removed it.

Problem solved.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 03:19:28PM 5 points [-]

Easy mockery aside, a lot of employees like to gripe, and if the feedback was just the sort of useless whining that 1% of the workforce loves to engage in, then I'd shut it down too(or, possibly more maliciously, leave it up for morale and stop reading it).

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 11 January 2014 12:31:55AM 2 points [-]

It's an interesting problem. A small proportion of the complaints might be about something urgent--- how do you sort them out from the minor or irrelevant stuff?

Comment author: Alsadius 11 January 2014 01:05:28AM 0 points [-]

Get rid of the direct communication, and tell your managers that important stuff should get filtered upwards.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 11 January 2014 01:16:28AM 1 point [-]

Very funny. Sometimes you can't trust your managers.

Comment author: Alsadius 11 January 2014 01:17:40AM 0 points [-]

Oh, it's hardly a perfect solution. But unless you hire a secretary to read the mailbox, it's what will happen. And much of the time it's good enough.

Comment author: Laoch 08 January 2014 02:00:13PM *  1 point [-]

Is anybody interested in enactivism? Does anybody think that there is a cognitivist bias in LessWrong?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 03:10:13PM 0 points [-]

I'm not familiar with enactivism in particular, but embodied and situated cognition seem like reasonable paradigms. I don't think they really necessarily contradict computationalism or cognitivism, though.

Comment author: Laoch 09 January 2014 09:35:35AM 0 points [-]

Mayhaps not indeed.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 03:30:17PM *  1 point [-]

Does anybody think that there is a cognitivist bias in LessWrong?

Bias is a bad word for core axioms that underly thinking. When discussing on Lesswrong I do accept certain axioms as the basis for the discourse.

There are other occasions where I talk to other people where I use other modes. When I attend a NLP seminar, it can happen that there are four meaningful conversational layers active at the same time. It's highly narrated and things that are said mean thing based on the narrative and context in which they were said.

On of my first 1-on-1 conversation with an NLP trainer was an elevator ride. I drove to the 5th floor to go to the toilet on it. The elevator stopped on the 4th floor and he came in. The 4th floor was the floor in which the seminar was held After assessing the situation he said: "You're intelligent." He was just at the toilet but walked down from the 5th floor to the 4th floor to then drive to the floor, and now I was on the 5th floor again because I drove the elevator there.

On that level the interaction is trivial, but to him I made the appearance of low self esteem nerd, so him as a figure of authority telling telling me me that I'm intelligent was something that was very targeted to what he thought I would need on an emotional level at that moment.

The style of the interaction where meaningful points usually don't get made on the most obvious level of the conversation and depend on context is very different from the kind of intellectual discussion on Lesswrong.

I'm not really able to do both at the same time. Both approaches have there use but I don't it makes much sense to speak in terms of bias. Just different frameworks and mental models with other axioms.

The result of such differences is that a lot of the academic literature on a subject such as hypnosis or NLP is bad because a good NLP trainer has the habit of communicating on a entirely different layer than an academic.

And to be clear, I do consider the NLP paradigm to be a form of enactivism.

Comment author: shminux 08 January 2014 08:17:49PM 2 points [-]

The wiki entry you linked is extremely unclear. Can you explain what enactivism is in simple words, using the vocabulary like http://splasho.com/upgoer5/ ?

Comment author: Laoch 09 January 2014 09:34:51AM 0 points [-]

When I get the time surely. I find cognitive science by definition quite unclear, it seems far too young a discipline with many different goals and theories attaching themselves to the moniker Cognitive Science. From a personal perspective and from the formal education I've received the cognitivism which I think lesswrong/tranhumanists endorse make me very uneasy even though I'm a LW and TH.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 11 January 2014 07:12:45AM 1 point [-]

If I've understood it correctly, it's the idea that the way our mind works is severely constrained by our physical form. For example, one of my pet hypotheses is that, since we are bipeds that grow up vertically, we're conditioned to think that more important things are in a vertically higher position than less important things (our language is littered with such metaphors: superior, inferior, exalted, debased, etc.). It shouldn't be immediately obvious that things farther from the ground have greater value, but I've found it difficult to show to other people that vertical metaphors are metaphors, and that we'd use different ones if our bodies were different.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 11 January 2014 08:28:35AM 0 points [-]

For example, one of my pet hypotheses is that, since we are bipeds that grow up vertically, we're conditioned to think that more important things are in a vertically higher position than less important things

Does this matter, though? A question I have about the whole field of embodied cognition.

Comment author: polymathwannabe 11 January 2014 07:05:27PM 0 points [-]

It keeps a check on our expectations for mutual understanding with alien species. A lot of our idioms and mental habits won't have any meaning for them, and vice versa. This already happens between human cultures, but it will happen even more with species that don't share our biologic history. Ultimately, it will compel us to reconsider how much of our thinking is generalizable, and how much is the contingent product of our evolution.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 08 January 2014 02:01:52PM 8 points [-]
Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 02:03:29PM 2 points [-]

English is for my a second language but I probably wrote more words in it than in my native one.

In the last months I frequently found myself forgetting "'s" after "there" or "ït". It not an issue that I remember being there a year ago. Has anyone observed similar things or knows of research that might describe processes like this?

The only explanation I can think of is having reread Korzybski's arguments against the "is of identity".It would be interesting if my unconscious is so opposed to "is" that it censors me from using it whenever I don't pay attention.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 04:46:55PM 5 points [-]

In the last months I frequently found myself forgetting "'s" after "there" or "ït". It not an issue that I remember being there a year ago.

I like how you do what you describe with the very next word after the description of the problem.

Comment author: adbge 08 January 2014 05:26:34PM 4 points [-]

There is what Wikipedia calls interference theory, which is when the act of learning new, similar information throws a wrench into the recall of the old information. For example, I never used to have any trouble with the word iniquitous before I learned the word invidious, but now I get them mixed up.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 January 2014 06:46:51PM 0 points [-]

English is for my a second language

for me

;-)

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 09 January 2014 05:43:07AM 4 points [-]

Come now. If you're going to correct that, why not make the whole sentence more idiomatic and point out that

English is a second language for me

flows better and sounds more natural? Putting the "for me" up front is a very Germanic sentence structure.

Comment author: Metus 08 January 2014 02:29:00PM 0 points [-]

Assuming the average person's utility function is concave with respect to money and given the current income distribution the simplest and highest utility change is to take a fixed amount from high income people and give it to low income people. This follows from simple economics as the people on the lower end of the distribution know best what it is they need. GiveDirectly is the charity that pioneers this exact scheme and that is why I donate to them.

On the other end of the spectrum, the high income countries, the best people could do is eat healthier and exercise more in terms of DALY won. Though efforts are made in that direction, they seem quite futile. Two other unexplored options are training in rationality (CFAR style) and training in methods of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT). Obviously CFAR is the go to charity for rationality but what about the latter? How large could the effect be of training young adults in the mentioned techniques in terms of DALY seeing as mental health problems such as anxiety or depression are quite prevalent and increased psychological resilience may even help with the aformentioned goals - not to mention the intangible goods such as improved quality of life, less suffering from external events and 'better' relationships.

Comment author: jaime2000 08 January 2014 02:51:28PM *  9 points [-]

Assuming the average person's utility function is concave with respect to money and given the current income distribution the simplest and highest utility change is to take a fixed amount from high income people and give it to low income people.

When you consider second order consequences, such as the creation and elimination of certain incentives, the effect of currency transfers on utility is not quite so straightforward. Even without those consequences, it is far from obvious that the statement

This follows from simple economics as the people on the lower end of the distribution know best what it is they need.

holds.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 January 2014 03:33:47PM 4 points [-]

the simplest and highest utility change is to take a fixed amount from high income people and give it to low income people.

Let's add the time dimension to this analysis. What you say might be true within an immediate time frame, but it is true in the one year time frame? ten years? a hundred years?

There is also the issue of side effects. Forcibly equalizing income (or wealth) has been tried. Many times.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 04:03:43PM *  7 points [-]

There is also the issue of side effects. Forcibly equalizing income (or wealth) has been tried. Many times.

I don't think he advocates equalizing. It's more an argument for unconditional basic income policies. Even Milton Friedman made proposals that went in that direction.

Comment author: drethelin 08 January 2014 10:40:28PM 1 point [-]

yeah I think forcible equalization is terrible but the fact remains that you gotta get money from SOMEONE for government spending and the rich have way more of it.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 09 January 2014 12:21:32AM 1 point [-]

And are hurt FAR less by its removal.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 08 January 2014 11:31:35PM 4 points [-]

I would argue most people's revealed preference of utility wrt money is either incoherent or lumpy enough that describing it with a simple curve isn't really valid.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 03:24:11PM 1 point [-]

I think most people's revealed preferences are quite coherent once you assume that gambling is as much a purchase of a dream(lotteries) or an entertainment experience(poker, blackjack, etc.) as it is a strictly financial bet.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 04:06:10PM *  8 points [-]

i plan to quit my job and move to an Eastern European country with small costs of living in march. Because of this I am looking for any job that I can do online for around 20 hours a week. I am looking for recommendations on where to look, where to ask, who to contact that might help me, etc. Any help will be appreciated.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 04:19:24PM 4 points [-]

What skills do you have?

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 04:28:43PM 0 points [-]

I have a degree in Psychology. Worked in Admissions mostly. Can do light coding (planning to spend more time on that during my extra free time) and some statistics (ditto). Can't really think of anything else that might be relevant.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 January 2014 04:33:21PM 1 point [-]

How do you rate your own writing abilities?

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 04:36:08PM 0 points [-]

6-7 / 10 depending on the style and subject matter. Currently trying to improve in that department.

Comment author: drethelin 08 January 2014 10:39:39PM 1 point [-]

You can play online poker. If you play the numbers you can make a steady profit.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 10:45:13PM *  2 points [-]

Been there, done that. I stopped back in 2010 when it became clear that the US will manage to forbid its citizens to play with everyone else as I assumed the games will become even less profitable.

I imagine that things are even worse now but I haven't looked into it for ages, however if you think there's still money in there then maybe I should investigate.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 08 January 2014 11:25:40PM 3 points [-]

Holidays can still be decent. I also hear tell there are bitcoin denominated poker rooms full of relatively bad players.

Comment author: Tenoke 08 January 2014 11:33:53PM 2 points [-]

bitcoin denominated poker rooms full of relatively bad players.

What? I thought all btc poker rooms are scams and/or almost void of players. This is awesome if true though, I will check it out.

Comment author: somervta 08 January 2014 10:54:32PM 1 point [-]

Freelancer.com is worthwhile.

Comment author: philh 08 January 2014 11:59:55PM 1 point [-]

I have a friend who uses http://tutor.com .

Comment author: pragmatist 09 January 2014 04:42:25AM *  2 points [-]

You need to live in US or Canada to work for tutor.com. At least, that's what it says on their application page.

Comment author: Tenoke 09 January 2014 11:02:56AM 0 points [-]

This or something similar could be useful. Thanks.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 08 January 2014 07:54:53PM 11 points [-]

I'm planning to meet with my local Department of Services for the Blind tomorrow; the stated purpose of the meeting is to discuss upcoming life changes/needs/etc. This appears to be exactly what I need at the moment, but I'm concerned that I'm not going to be optimally prepared, so I'd like to post some details here to increase the chances of useful feedback.

(For transparency's sake: I'm legally blind, unemployed, living with my parents until they take the necessary steps to get me moved into the place I own, with student loan payments outpacing my SSI benefits by over $200/month, and stuck in the bible belt.)

  • The plan to move out will doubtless frame the conversation.
  • I'm unsure as to whether this conversation will be private (me talking to a DSB representative), or if one of my parents will sit in. Who is in earshot matters, since for all the problems I have with my parents, they are the entirety of my support system at the moment, and the less risk to that relationship the better.
  • Most important topic: Training. My skills across the board are pathetic, yet I've been unable to improve them independently in the time since I've realized this (most of the past year and a half, IIRC). I find myself drawn toward the National Federation of the Blind's training centers, but those involve a hefty time investment (six months), and the prices I've found suggest it would cost ~$3600/month, not to mention travel. This is exactly the sort of thing I would expect DSB to help with, but at the same time, I don't consider it unlikely that I'll be pushed toward cheaper, more local options. (My research over the past several months has reduced my confidence that the more local options are of much value.)
  • I feel I would greatly benefit from a functional Notetaker. The one I was previously using has stopped functioning. I'm worried about this one; I expect that anything for which DSB provides assistance will need directing toward a tangible goal, possibly with a narrower subset than "I can get much more done with it than I could hope to with just a laptop". (I could write an entire post on why I think Notetakers are awesome, but this is already quite lengthy.)

I'm unsure as to how I will approach these topics, or the meeting as a whole, or if there are other issues I've missed/neglected/been mistaken about.

I do not like being a net drain on resources; managing this correctly seems the most viable path to reversing that.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 09 January 2014 07:32:05AM 3 points [-]

It looks like you've already got a list of things you want to answer in the meeting, so you've already done the most important preparation.

I'm unsure as to whether this conversation will be private (me talking to a DSB representative), or if one of my parents will sit in.

This is probably under your control. I expect you have the right to a private meeting, if you ask the DSB rep. If you're worried about how your parents would react to such a request, maybe try framing it as practicing your independence, or something appropriately harmless and fuzzy-sounding?

Comment author: rhollerith_dot_com 09 January 2014 11:57:32AM *  6 points [-]

If you have not dealt with something the DSB before, you're probably drastically overestimating how much mental effort they are willing to expend to help you. (I dealt with a similar agency, the California Department of Rehabilitation, many years ago.)

Although it is of course good for you to try to estimate how much mental effort they are willing to make in real time during the interview, I suggest the plan you go into the meeting with assume it is low. E.g. you might consider just asking for a notetaker over and over again.

Try to appear a little dumber than you actually are.

I would not risk alienating your parents to try for a deeper conversation with DSB staff.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 04:31:38PM 0 points [-]

My impression is that some people want children very much, but the majority have children as a result of liking sex plus being willing to raise children once the children exist plus social pressure.

You do get the occasional sperm substitution scandal which seems like a very pure example of a desire to have children.

Comment author: Vulture 09 January 2014 05:47:55PM 3 points [-]

I think you replied to the wrong comment.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 06:00:35PM 0 points [-]

You're right.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 09 January 2014 07:17:59PM 13 points [-]

I was absurdly lucky: the counselor I spoke to is new and motivated to put in the necessary effort for everything, and went to high school with my stepmother; it also turns out that the in-state training center has a thirty-day trial period, during which commitment is a non-issue. They also offered to provide any required technology, be it laptops or note takers or whatever. It could start as early as the first week of February, which is early enough that I wouldn't need to worry about security at my property. So on the whole, a surprisingly good day.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 09 January 2014 07:57:35PM 4 points [-]

That's awesome. Go you!

Comment author: Locaha 08 January 2014 08:39:54PM 1 point [-]

LessWrong is rationalist Reddit.

Where is rationalist 4chan?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 08:56:13PM 14 points [-]
Comment author: David_Gerard 08 January 2014 09:17:36PM 3 points [-]

One day MIRI will get a press officer and you'll forget we exist. You'll see!

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2014 01:43:01AM 2 points [-]

How could I possibly forget that something as ridiculous as RationalWiki exists in this world?

Comment author: knb 10 January 2014 02:32:46AM 8 points [-]

RationalWiki is more like Encyclopedia Dramatica.

Comment author: drethelin 08 January 2014 10:38:03PM *  7 points [-]

.#lesswrong IRC is probably closest.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 08 January 2014 11:30:17PM 1 point [-]

so, lower signal to noise, but also more exploration of the edges of the rationalist memeplex? cud b laff.

Comment author: ZankerH 09 January 2014 12:59:31AM 2 points [-]

reddit.com/r/lesswrong ?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 08 January 2014 09:15:58PM 9 points [-]

Finally have a core mechanic for my edugame about Bayesian networks. At least on paper.

This should hopefully be my last post before I actually have a playable prototype done, even if a very short one (like the tutorial level or something).

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 12:30:40AM 9 points [-]

If you're expecting the singularity within a century, does it make sense to put any thought into eugenics except for efforts to make it easy to avoid the worst genetic disorders?

Comment author: Nornagest 09 January 2014 01:05:04AM *  5 points [-]

That seems to depend on a number of assumptions -- your timeline, whether you expect a soft or a hard takeoff, the centrality of raw intelligence vs. cultural effects to research quality, possible nonlinearity of network effects on intellectual output. But I'd bet that the big one is time: if you think (unrealistically, but run with it) that you can improve a test population's intelligence by 50%, that could be very significant if you're expecting a 2100 singularity but likely won't be if you're expecting one before they graduate from college.

Comment author: Manfred 09 January 2014 04:21:36AM *  2 points [-]

Good point. The cutoff is not necessarily the singularity, either - once we have sufficiently awesome genetic engineering, there's no point to eugenics.

Comment author: David_Gerard 09 January 2014 11:12:22AM *  4 points [-]

This could be generalised to putting any thought into anything. Will the singularity be achieved within one childhood? More smart people may be useful to apply to the problem. If you're smart, make more smart people.

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 03:44:11AM *  5 points [-]

Every single time the subject of overpopulation comes up and I offer my opinion (which is that in some respects the world is overpopulated and that it would benefit us to have a smaller or negative population growth rate), I seem to get one or two negative votes. The negative karma isn't nearly as important to me as the idea that I might be missing some fundamental idea and that those who downvote me are actually right.

Especially, this recent thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jgg/we_need_new_humans_please_help/ has highlighted this issue for me again.

So, I'm opening my mind, trying to set aside my biases, and hereby asking all those who disagree with me to give me a rational argument for why I'm wrong and why the world needs more people. If I stray from my objective and take a biased viewpoint, I deserve all the negative karma you can throw at me.

Comment author: [deleted] 09 January 2014 04:15:03AM 0 points [-]

I broadly agree with your opinion, provided certain socioeconomic problems resulting from population contraction could be overcome.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 09 January 2014 04:21:16PM -2 points [-]

Then you have to agree in any case as population contraction must happen after hitting the limit (all simulations of the "limits to grows" study show overshoot) and I'd guess that the earlier this is addressed the better.

Comment author: Manfred 09 January 2014 04:15:52AM 9 points [-]

I don't recall downvoting you, but I think that there is a very high chance technology makes the problem moot - either by killing us or by alleviating scarcity until a superintelligence happens.

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 05:47:04AM *  1 point [-]

I agree with you that future technology will probably allow us to sustain far far greater population than we can now. However, my view concerns problems were are creating at the present, and not all present problems can be retroactively solved with future technology. For instance, if you value biodiversity in the natural world (and there are good, practical reasons to do so), and biodiversity is lost, it's irreversible. Once the gene pool of a species is wiped out it is extremely difficult to restore it again. And sure, even though species go instinct all the time irrespective of human activity, throughout the history of the planet, the long-term trend of biodiversity has been to go up.

Now, as to whether human activity is decreasing biodiversity, it's a complex subject and I don't claim to be very knowledgeable about it. As far as I've heard in the scientific literature, humans are negatively affecting biodiversity.

A very nice review of human activity and socioeconomic progress and their impact on biodiversity is given in this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X11001051

This book does a nice job of explaining the interrelationships between biodiversity, poverty, and overpopulation: http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?index=books&linkCode=qs&keywords=111842848X

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 04:17:37AM 11 points [-]

Well, let's try to be a bit more specific about this.

First, what does the claim that "the world is overpopulated" mean? It implies a metric of some sort to which we can point and say "this is too high", "this is too low", "this is just right". I am not sure what this metric might be.

The simplest metric used in biology is an imminent population crash -- if the current count of some critters in an ecosystem is pretty sure to rapidly contract soon we'd probably speak of overpopulation. That doesn't seem to be the case with respect to humans now.

Second, the overpopulation claim is necessarily conditional on a specific level of technology. It is pretty clear that the XXI technology can successfully sustain more people than, say, the pre-industrial technology. One implication is that future technological progress is likely to change whatever number we consider to be the sustainable carrying capacity of Earth now.

Third, and here things get a bit controversial, it all depends (as usual) on your terminal goals. If your wish is for peace and comfort of Mother Gaia, well, pretty much any number of humans is overpopulation. But let's take a common (though by no means universal) goal of long-term economic wealth. We want to create value and keep on creating more of it for a long time. Given this, you want more humans since that will accelerate the process up until certain limits. Where these limits are is debatable but I haven't seen much evidence that we are facing them right now.

Fourth, overpopulation is pretty local. Taking the simplest possible measure of land area, it's hard to argue that countries like Russia or Canada or Australia are overpopulated.

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 05:44:12AM *  0 points [-]

It implies a metric of some sort to which we can point and say "this is too high", "this is too low", "this is just right". I am not sure what this metric might be.

I agree that a single metric would be hard to define, but I don't see any problem characterizing it as a combination of various metrics. Is not employment rate vs. population one valid metric, for instance? Or what about worldwide (not just USA, but worldwide average) cost of various foodstuffs vs income?

A set of metrics are given in this paper: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Second, the overpopulation claim is necessarily conditional on a specific level of technology. It is pretty clear that the XXI technology can successfully sustain more people than, say, the pre-industrial technology.

Absolutely correct. When I speak of overpopulation, I'm speaking in terms of the present. What is the present population, and what are our current technological capabilities?

I entirely agree with you that future technology could make overpopulation moot. But we don't know enough about future technology and sociology to say for certain.

Third, and here things get a bit controversial, it all depends (as usual) on your terminal goals.

My terminal goal is (if I am allowed to speak in somewhat vague terms here) continuing prosperity for individual human beings. My goal is for individuals to have more wealth and access to more resources, and as we know, increasing wealth is correlated with increasing happiness. Throughout the last couple of centuries, and especially in the last century, the quality of life in the developed world increased by leaps and bounds. But it didn't increase as much in many other places in the world. It increased a little, but not that much. I want that increase in quality of life to continue in the West, and I also want it to occur everywhere else as well.

By the way, this increase in access to resources is only good up to a limit, of course. What that limit is is the subject of another debate, but I think both you and I would agree that as of the present we are safely below the limits.

Fourth, overpopulation is pretty local. Taking the simplest possible measure of land area, it's hard to argue that countries like Russia or Canada or Australia are overpopulated.

True, but if you were to disperse the population of India and China around the world, what would be the case then?

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 03:58:41PM 4 points [-]

Is not employment rate vs. population one valid metric, for instance?

It is not. Is there any correlation between unemployment and overall population across time? I don't think so. Is there any correlation between local population density and local unemployment? I don't think so. Is the unemployment in Hong Kong hugely greater than in Mongolia or Greenland?

cost of various foodstuffs vs income?

As with unemployment, look at this criterion over the last few centuries. Even during the XX century I believe the percentage of income spent on food has been steadily dropping in the developed countries.

But we don't know enough about future technology and sociology to say for certain.

It's funny how the proponents of the overpopulation thesis have absolutely no problems with linearly extending resource consumption lines far into the future but can't say anything about the future technology and so conveniently assume that it won't change.

My goal is for individuals to have more wealth and access to more resources.

So, that's pretty mainstream. Would you be fine with calling it the total economic wealth of the world?

if you were to disperse the population of India and China around the world

Let's stick to reality.

Comment author: passive_fist 09 January 2014 11:09:04PM *  -1 points [-]

So are you saying that the metrics I suggested aren't valid at all, or simply don't make a case for overpopulation existing?

I believe the percentage of income spent on food has been steadily dropping in the developed countries.

That's why I mentioned the worldwide average, not just developed countries.

Would you be fine with calling it the total economic wealth of the world?

Not total, average.

Anyway, it's no use going back-and-forth like this, because I feel like I'm seriously straying from my goal of being neutral and unbiased. I liked Manfred's response because he explicitly mentioned one well-defined issue he thinks I'm overlooking, rather than trying to overcomplicate the discussion.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 12:55:21AM 1 point [-]

So are you saying that the metrics I suggested aren't valid at all

Yes, I don't think they have anything to do with overpopulation.

Comment author: passive_fist 10 January 2014 04:23:16AM *  0 points [-]

And now you're down-voting me just because you didn't read my post before replying?

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 04:37:13AM 1 point [-]

I am not downvoting you. I rarely up- or downvote posts in threads in which I participate, anyway.

Comment author: passive_fist 10 January 2014 05:38:19AM 1 point [-]

Yeah that came out entirely different to what I had intended to ask. Retracted.

Comment author: passive_fist 10 January 2014 05:38:33AM 1 point [-]

Ok thanks, at least now I know where the disagreement lies.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 09 January 2014 01:50:12PM 4 points [-]

If your wish is for peace and comfort of Mother Gaia, well, pretty much any number of humans is overpopulation

Not if Mother Gaia is expansionist.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 09 January 2014 02:31:18PM 2 points [-]

Fourth, overpopulation is pretty local. Taking the simplest possible measure of land area, it's hard to argue that countries like Russia or Canada or Australia are overpopulated.

There's a reason they don't have many people per square mile. It's really difficult to live in large parts of them.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 03:27:02PM 4 points [-]

Southern Siberia, for example, is pretty benevolent and pretty empty.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 04:18:53PM *  2 points [-]

It's an argument based on false premises. Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward. Every time we think we've hit a wall(running out of wood in the 18th century, whales in the 19th century, food in the 20th century, or oil in the 21st century), we've come up with new technologies to keep going without much trouble(coal, oil, GMOs/agricultural chemistry, and tar sands/fracking respectively). Limitations on space are even less relevant.

Conversely, we've built first-world societies on a governmental safety net that only actually works with an increasing population. If we don't grow, then pension plans will start detonating like someone's carpet-bombing the economy. (Yes, worse than they are already). I think the people who created those pyramid schemes should be taken out behind the woodshed for a posthumous beatdown, but it's a bit late to fix it now.

If you want to know what a negative population growth rate looks like, look at what will happen to China over the next couple decades. It's the biggest demographic time bomb in human history.

Also, if you're bringing sustainability into this, IMO the only truly sustainable option is to advance technology so fast that we can defeat the Second Law somehow. Anything else just delays the inevitable.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 04:29:20PM 6 points [-]

If you want to know what a negative population growth rate looks like, look at what will happen to China over the next couple decades.

Or you can look at Japan right now. Their total workforce has been contracting for the last few years and the only way to go is down. And their amount of government debt is not a coincidence.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 07:54:34PM 1 point [-]

Yup, them too. Both were held up as countries that were going to overwhelm the US through their superior economic performance, both are going to suffer long and agonizing collapses as their demography ruins them. I went with the more topical example, but Japan is probably the better one, because they're so much further along.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 08:04:44PM 2 points [-]

long and agonizing collapses

A "long collapse" is a bit of an oxymoron -- presumably you mean they will collapse and stay collapsed.

But that raises an interesting question -- can a society/country downscale without a collapse? Theoretically, it's perfectly doable -- you population decreases, so does your GDP but not GDP per capita. You just have more space for less people.

In practice, of course, there are issues.

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 08:12:10PM 2 points [-]

I don't regard "collapse" as referring to something instantaneous. The fall of Rome, for example, could be referred to as a multi-century collapse.

And in principle, yes, it could happen. But in practice, before people die, they get old. And old people suck, economically speaking.

Comment author: lmm 11 January 2014 11:33:15AM 1 point [-]

Taking away the pensions of people who've paid a tax that's supposed to fund pensions all their lives would be political suicide.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:00:15PM *  3 points [-]

It depends on what the alternative is.

If you have nothing to pay pensions with, you have nothing to pay pensions with. See Detroit.

For sovereigns who can print fiat money the situation is a bit more complicated but the same in medium term. The amount of money doesn't matter, what matters is the amount of value that the country produces and which it then redistributes among people. If there is not enough value, printing money will just lead you into an inflationary spiral.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 10 January 2014 06:11:55PM 2 points [-]

We can beat the pension-based need for more people by vastly increasing productivity and ameliorating the effects of old age and/or automating more of the care of debilitated people

Comment author: Alsadius 10 January 2014 07:57:52PM 1 point [-]

Productivity, agreed.

Ameliorating the effects of old age, disagree - too many people treat retirement at 65 to be a God-given right for any real bump in the retirement age to solve things any time soon. Remember, this was an age set by Otto von Bismarck, and it's remained unchanged since - we've already had massive increases in quality of life for the elderly, and it's done nothing to improve the financial footings of the pension system(Quite the opposite, really).

Automating the care of the elderly will help some, but you're still left with extremely low workforce participation and a very high dependent ratio. That's not a pleasant situation, even if you don't need millions of people working in nursing homes.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 08:08:37PM *  4 points [-]

by vastly increasing productivity

And how will this happen? The productivity growth has slowed down considerably and shows no signs of picking up, never mind "vastly increasing".

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 02:43:22PM 2 points [-]

Well, there was at least one report suggesting that half of all jobs might be automated over the next two decades.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:11:07PM 3 points [-]

You are overstating the report's conclusions -- it said the "jobs might be at risk" which sounds to me like "we want to sound impressive but actually don't have anything to say".

I've paged through the report and wasn't impressed. For example (emphasis mine), "...First, together with a group of ML researchers, we subjectively hand-labelled 70 occupations, assigning 1 if automatable, and 0 if not. ... Our label assignments were based on eyeballing the O∗NET tasks and job description of each occupation." Essentially this a bunch of guesses and opinions with little support in the way of evidence.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 03:03:01PM *  1 point [-]

Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward.

As far as I can tell, this argument seems to be the same as "technology has improved before, letting us overcome resource limitations, and there's no particular reason to believe that the new innovations will stop coming".

But that sounds much more suspect. There have been cultures that collapsed due to resource limitations before, and the current trend of very fast growth in our ability to extract more resources or replace them with more easily extractable ones has only been going on for some hundreds of years. "We will always be able to come up with the kinds of innovations that will save us" is a very strong claim, implying that observed cases of diminishing returns in various extraction techniques (e.g. taking advantage of tar sands requires a much larger energy investment and is much less efficient than traditional sources of oil, AFAIK) don't matter since we'll always be able to switch something completely different. There don't seem to be any strong theoretical arguments in support of that, as far as I can tell - only the observation that we've happened to manage it of late.

Comment author: Alsadius 12 January 2014 05:32:33AM 2 points [-]

It's a somewhat weaker claim. Society isn't really dependant on any single resource - oil is the closest we come, and even oil is only really essential in aviation and certain chemical processes(and it can be synthesized for that). My claim is closer to "No essential combination of resources will run out before replacement technology is available". Still strong, admittedly, but weaker.

That said, I will freely agree that we're going to take a financial hit as certain supplies run low. Oil will likely never again be as cheap as it was 20 years ago, because the extraction of our reserve oil supplies is so much more complex and expensive. It won't be pleasant. But our society has a technological mindset, huge diversification, and a larger base of wealth than all of humanity before living memory combined. I think we'll do better than Easter Island did.

And yes, there's no theoretical reason it has to be true. But the accumulated evidence that it generally is is pretty strong. How many of the catastrophes predicted in recent centuries have actually come to pass, if society has had 5+ years to prepare? Peak oil, the population bomb, nuclear war, Y2K, expansionist Germans(twice!), the collapse of the Internet, and on and on. All of those were perfectly real concerns, and had the potential to be devastating if left unchecked. But we saw them coming, took steps to deal with it, and beat back all of them, many so thoroughly that nobody even noticed that they'd been and gone.

Comment author: knb 12 January 2014 03:03:41AM 4 points [-]

It's an argument based on false premises. Limitations on resources have, in past, proven to be fairly meaningless, and there's no particular reason to believe this will change going forward.

This isn't even slightly true. Historically the the normal state for humanity was malthusian stagnation. Resource limits were a hard fact of life, with lots of people starving at the margins.

Yes, we've escaped from Malthusian conditions for the time being, but progress is already stagnating. I think planning to limit population growth is a common sense idea, although as a coordination problem, this seems hard to solve (how do we punish defectors, etc.)

Comment author: Alsadius 12 January 2014 05:33:49AM *  3 points [-]

We are currently producing enough food to feed the highest population the Earth is expected to ever at any point have. We are doing so in perfectly sustainable fashion. Malthus is dead.

Edit: For clarity, the sustainable fashion I refer to may involve shifts to less meat consumption, between different sorts of crops, or the substitution of machinery with more labour, to deal with various future crises. Modern crops and farming knowledge alone, which should both survive even a collapse of civilization largely intact, ought to be enough to feed any projected human population. It's theoretically possible for Mathus to come back, but the conditions that would lead to it are so unlikely that for the purposes of ordinary debate it can safely be said to be a fixed problem.

Comment author: Lambda 09 January 2014 05:12:58AM 3 points [-]

I've been lurking here for a while, but I'd like to get more actively involved.

By the way, are there any other Yale students here? If so, I'd be interested in founding a rationalist group / LW meetup on campus.

Comment author: protest_boy 09 January 2014 07:17:16AM -1 points [-]

Alum here... glad to hear! You should do that :)

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 09 January 2014 07:49:33AM 8 points [-]

The standard advice for starting a physical group is to just pick a timeframe and a nice location, then show up with a good book and stay for the duration. Either other people show up and you've got your meetup, or else you spend a couple hours with a good book.

PM me if you want to talk about founding a group. I ran the Boston community for a while, and it was one of the most rewarding things I've ever done.

Comment author: VAuroch 09 January 2014 08:18:50AM 4 points [-]

Recently attempted to read Julian Barbour's The End of Time, primarily on Eliezer's recommendation and found myself stalling out because it wasn't presenting any information which felt new to me. I am currently weighing whether it is worth pushing onward in the hopes of finding meatier material later.

Has anyone else read it after having read the Quantum Physics sequence, and what were their thoughts?

Comment author: blacktrance 09 January 2014 03:25:21PM 10 points [-]

All the productivity posts on LW that I've read, I found mildly disturbing. They all give a sense of excessive regimentation, as well as giving up enjoyable activity - sacrificing a lot for a single goal (or a few goals). I'm sure it's good for getting work done, but there's more to life than work - there's actually enjoying life, having fun, etc.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 09 January 2014 05:04:47PM 4 points [-]

Can you give any concrete examples?

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 01:39:27AM 4 points [-]

Habitual Productivity

[I]n the end, there wasn't really a compromise. The productivity side just flat-out won: I eventually realized that human interaction is necessary for mental health and that a solid social network is invaluable. I don't mean to imply that I engage in social interaction because I've calculated that it's necessary: I really do enjoy social interaction, and I really want to be able to enjoy it without guilt... I've found an excuse that allows me to both enjoy myself and sate the thirst. That said, it's still difficult for me to disengage sometimes.

The mechanics of my recent productivity

[T]his stint was rough. I experienced far more stress than my norm. I lost a little weight and twice caught myself grinding my teeth in my sleep (a new experience). There were days that I became mentally exhausted, growing obstinate and stubborn as if sleep- or food-deprived.

How I Am Productive (Miscellaneous extreme regimentation)

There are other posts that give me this impression, but I can't find them right now. Also, the "optimal sleep" posts seem to be all about how to sleep as little as possible to be as productive as possible.

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 06:49:52AM 3 points [-]

Yeah all the obsession with polyphasic sleep seems to be about sacrificing quality of life for quantity of "productive" time.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 09 January 2014 05:55:54PM 8 points [-]

I think you're talking about So8res's recent posts, but I think they're exceptional. Most productivity posts are about avoiding spending time web surfing, particularly during time that has been budgeted for work. They do this partly because fragmenting time is bad and partly because there are better ways to have fun.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 09 January 2014 09:34:20PM 2 points [-]

Most productivity posts are about avoiding spending time web surfing

To avoid paradox, it is probably better to print those posts and read them from the paper.

But yes, it is a good advice, which probably brings more productivity gains than any other advice.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 10 January 2014 12:18:03AM 2 points [-]

While the direct advice may be valuable, I don't think it's so common; I'm talking about posts that take it as a given and talk about ways to beat addiction, such as leechblock, pomodoros, and conditioning. Other suggestions, like recording time spent, manually or by browser plugin are about convincing people that they are wasting their time, on the hypothesis that people won't believe the raw claim.

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 12:58:30AM 3 points [-]

I find that doing fun things like web surfing makes unenjoyable work more bearable, even though it takes longer. And I do think that most productivity posts are about more than not spending time on the Internet - there's a lot about how to cut down on social time and "fun" so you can be as productive as possible.

Comment author: chairbender 10 January 2014 03:05:20AM *  4 points [-]

I find that doing fun things like web surfing makes unenjoyable work more bearable

If you learn mindfulness, you can learn to detach yourself from an impulsive desire to be entertained constantly, and find flow (and happiness, or at least contentment) in tasks you previously thought were unenjoyable.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 05:24:04AM 2 points [-]

Can you or anyone else sketch out some advice on how to achieve this wonderful sounding thing?

Comment author: chairbender 10 January 2014 02:57:24AM *  -2 points [-]

Downvoted for proposing a poisonous idea. You're implying a dichotomy between being productive and experiencing positive emotions. You can find productive tasks enjoyable. Hanging out with people is an important part of staying healthy, for example, and is generally enjoyable.

there's more to life than work - there's actually enjoying life, having fun, etc.

Having fun is certainly something that you can do, but that doesn't mean that it is obviously morally optimal.

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 03:54:32AM 1 point [-]

You certainly can find productive tasks enjoyable, but it's common to find productive tasks unenjoyable. People don't hang out with each other because it's productive (except when networking), they hang out because it's fun. The fact that it's good for your health is a bonus, but isn't and shouldn't be the primary motivation.

Having fun is certainly something that you can do, but that doesn't mean that it is obviously morally optimal.

Not obviously morally optimal, but it is actually morally optimal, for a broad enough sense of "having fun". But I say this as an ethical egoist.

Comment author: chairbender 10 January 2014 04:31:51AM 0 points [-]

but it is actually morally optimal, for a broad enough sense of "having fun". But I say this as an ethical egoist.

Just because you are an ethical egoist does not mean that ethical egoism is the system by which all moral claims ought to be judged. Have you read the metaethics sequence?

Comment author: blacktrance 10 January 2014 05:24:19AM -1 points [-]

It's true that all moral claims shouldn't be judged by ethical egoism because I believe it, moral claims should be judged by egoism because it's correct. And I have read the metaethics sequence, and found it interesting, though at times lacking. What part of it are you referring to?

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 06:47:58AM 0 points [-]

Downvoted for proposing a poisonous idea. There IS an obvious and common dichotomy between being productive and experiencing positive emotions and pretending that it isn't there is bullshit that will only cause people to burn out and be even less productive AND less happy. Yours is the kind of attitude that leads people to say "I can never be as good as this amazing guy so I won't even try". Satisficing morality and happiness separately will get us far more of both.

Comment author: chairbender 10 January 2014 07:22:44AM *  0 points [-]

I agree that productive tasks tend to be less enjoyable, but (at least for me) I still experience SOME positive emotions when I'm being productive, though (and when I'm reflecting on being productive). I just meant that it's possible to be productive and not feel miserable. I started getting more productive when I was able to use mindfulness to detach myself from an impulsive desire to experience happiness. I don't think that's a particularly harmful idea to suggest. I just think it's bad to discourage people from trying to find happiness and contentment in contributing to society (being productive) by implying that it's simply not possible. Also, from a utilitarian standpoint, spending time being productive (making a positive impact on the world) seems better than spending time pursuing individual happiness (to an extent, since you obviously are going to have a hard time being productive if you are miserable). If you value your personal happiness above others (like blacktrance), though, it totally makes sense that you would spend less time trying to make a positive impact on the world. I didn't realize people thought that way when I responded.

I felt sad when you called what I wrote "bullshit", though. I'm new to posting on LW and it makes me feel really depressed and rejected to have one of my first few discussions result in me being insulted like that.

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 07:33:42AM *  0 points [-]

Calling something bullshit is less of a slur than calling someone's ideas poisonous. Plenty of things are bullshit. If you can't handle people disagreeing with the truth of your statements or your ethical injunctions maybe you shouldn't go around telling someone that expressing their concerns is a poisonous idea.

Edit- I also don't appreciate your pathetic emotional manipulation, both here and in the related sub-thread.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 10 January 2014 08:10:18AM 4 points [-]

You're implying a dichotomy between being productive and experiencing positive emotions.

Dichotomy is a strong word, but I expect that the correlation between productivity and positive emotions is generally negative.

Of course the advice here is: go meta, and explore the strategies to make the correlation positive.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 10 January 2014 08:20:37AM 9 points [-]

My experience is the opposite; productivity generally feels awesome, sitting around doing nothing or wandering around the internet is generally depressing. (This is insufficient as a motivator for behavior.)

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 09:00:17AM *  3 points [-]

for these discussions we need to start differentiating meanings of the word "productive". When I get stuff done for an interesting task, or put together a piece of furniture, that''s being productive and usually feels pretty good. When I fill out paperwork for a lease or something, that usually feels boring and not fun, with some good feeling when it's over with. I think both of these fall under the lay definition of "productive". Leisure/fun times trades off against both of these, but my mental image when someone says "it's better to be productive than to spend time doing nothing" usually has me picturing boring homework.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 10 January 2014 09:45:41AM *  3 points [-]

Exactly. A person's general productivity and procrastination will probably greatly depend on whether most of their "productivity" is going interesting tasks or filling out paperwork.

So the right long-term strategy is probably to find a way to get paid for doing interesting tasks.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 10 January 2014 06:59:26PM 2 points [-]

I'm currently about a quarter of the way through this book, and already it has several actionable insights on how to do that.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 10 January 2014 07:52:45PM *  1 point [-]

Just reading the book description, this sounds right:

Passion comes after you put in the hard work to become excellent at something valuable, not before.

Maybe the trick is with the "something valuable" part. Some people make money by doing things that are not valuable, or at least some Dilbert-esque process removes a lot of value from their contribution.

So while you shouldn't keep searching until you find something you feel passionate about (because it is your work that creates the passion), you probably should keep searching until you find something valuable, where the value you add isn't destroyed by the process. And then keep doing it.

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 10 January 2014 08:30:57PM 1 point [-]

Yeah. The author claims you need to find something where (1) you can improve your skills, (2) you believe your work has positive value, and (3) you don't actively dislike the people you're working with. From there, you can increase your skills and prove your value, then barter that value into a position that has the traits which correlate with fulfillment.

Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 04:37:19PM *  2 points [-]

This is a request for information. We all know about the force of a first impression on other people, but here's something I'm extremely confused about: how easy is it to spoil somebody's impression of you when you have already known them for a bit? I'm asking this from a male perspective, but with respect to both inter- and intra-gender interactions. I'd appreciate both scientific studies (I'm not aware of any) and personal experience, because I really have no clue. My past interactions with people have been extremely high-variance in this respect, I don't want to generalize from the example of myself, and figuring out the answer in any given individual case to gather more data is not trivial due to the noisiness of signals in social communication and the costs of asking explicitly.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 06:20:36PM 2 points [-]

how easy is it to spoil somebody's impression of you when you have already known them for a bit?

Spoiling is trivially easy -- just mention that you like to torture kittens in your spare time.

Without such drastic admissions, are you really asking whether someone's opinion of you can radically decrease without you doing anything that seems out of the ordinary to you? I guess, but you also have to keep in mind the difference between what the other person things and what s/he is willing to show.

For example, let's say Alice and Bob meet. Alice doesn't really like Bob but she is polite so she doesn't show it in an obvious fashion plus she hopes that maybe Bob isn't as bad as he looks. After a bit of time Alice's opinion of Bob is still the same but now she sees less reason to be polite and have decided that yes, Bob is as bad as he looks. From the Bob's point of view it looks as if Alice took a sudden dislike to him, but from Alice's point of view she just allowed herself to show her true attitude which didn't change much.

Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 06:34:50PM *  0 points [-]

Without such drastic admissions, are you really asking whether someone's opinion of you can radically decrease without you doing anything that seems out of the ordinary to you?

Essentially, yes. The question wasn't particularly clear, I admit, because I don't know how to phrase it more clearly, except for individual examples, and I want a slightly more general answer.

But, to give one example scenario of the kind I have in mind, take this: we know that appearing confident is important for the first impression. What happens if a person has formed an impression of you as confident, but later you display some clearly non-confident behavior?

There is the fundamental attribution error working against you, but there's also the fact that people in general don't like updating. And as I said, my personal experience shows such high variance that I feel very clueless; I've seen decent people who remain friends with others I would long have thrown out of my social circle, and other people who irredeemably condemn you as soon as you commit the slightest blunder. Somehow the latter group seemed to be more pathological than the first, for independent reasons, but still… I feel a desperate need for data.

I guess, but you also have to keep in mind the difference between what the other person thinks and what s/he is willing to show.

I'm keeping that in mind all the time, which is why I called the signals noisy. They are, to an annoying extreme.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 06:48:28PM 2 points [-]

Two reactions to this.

First, I think that the high variance and the noise are just characteristics of real life. People are different AND incoherent AND impulsive AND prone to change their mind.

Even if you manage to gather enough data to form some reasonable central estimates, the variance will remain huge.

Second, it's not clear to me what kind of an answer do you hope to get. Technically you are asking a simple yes/no question and the answer to it is obviously "yes", but between that and a full-blown model of human behavior in relationships I am not sure what are you looking for. Can you give an example of what an answer (not necessarily a correct one) might look like?

Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 07:03:33PM *  1 point [-]

Uhm, technically, I'm asking a degree question, not a yes/no-question…

People are different AND incoherent AND impulsive AND prone to change their mind.

Well, especially the last conjunct is not obvious by any means. :)

Here's an example of a possible "personal experience" answer: "In my experience of so-and-so many years, in this-and-that demographic, people tend to stick to their initial impressions. It takes a certain time or relatively persistent behavior to the contrary for them to change their initial assessment, e.g. for them to judge that you're not as smart or confident as they initially believed you to be. Certain (comparatively rare) individuals are exceptions to this and are, as it were, on the look-out for faults in others. Individuals may be on in one or the other group only for a particular gender-mixture, in particular, they may be of the "forgiving" kind for same-gender interactions, but of the judgmental kind for cross-gender interactions. This is the most common deviation from uniform attitudes."

I admit that I'm having a hard time figuring out what to look for in the way of scientific studies of friendship and relationships that would be relevant to this, which may explain why I didn't find anything on a first cursory search.

So any help in precisifying the question in order to increase answerability is also welcome.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 07:20:26PM 0 points [-]

Well, I am not you, but I would consider that example answer to be entirely useless. It effectively says that people stick to initial impressions until they don't and, oh, there are exceptions. "Certain time" can be five seconds or five years. And what would be practical implications? That first impressions matter? We already know that.

And that, of course, before considering that various groups and subcultures are likely to have different norms in this respect.

Maybe it's worth shortcutting to a more-terminal goal? Are you looking to be liked? Do you want to control a relationship? Are you trying to forecast which relationships are likely to remain stable and which are not?

Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 07:31:49PM *  0 points [-]

Of course the answer is exceedingly vague, but I wouldn't expect anyone to track their experience in such a fashion as to give actual numbers. Though examples with months would of course be nice, but in any case, it would still be informative. It would tell me that the judgmental ones that immediately flip their judgments are particular exceptional individuals and that this is not normal; it would also tell me that it's the identity of individuals that explains the variation, while individuals don't change their behavior constantly (i.e. if you've seen someone be tolerant with others, you can expect them to be tolerant with you). It would tell me that you wouldn't need to worry about isolated incidents a few weeks or months apart, especially with parties of the same gender.

What I know of first impressions is mostly how rich they are. I'm asking about their resilience. Maybe there is something well-known here that I'm simply unaware of and that you consider obvious.

And that, of course, before considering that various groups and subcultures are likely to have different norms in this respect.

Which is why the answer included "that-and-that demographic"… To be honest, though, I'm not sure that I would actually expect that much variation between groups/subcultures.

Maybe it's worth shortcutting to a more-terminal goal? Are you looking to be liked? Do you want to control a relationship? Are you trying to forecast which relationships are likely to remain stable and which are not?

Good point. It's essentially the last one. This feeling I have of not knowing what's going on and what's normal is a source of anxiety to me (not in the clinical sense of social anxiety, but it makes me worry). Right now, I have some relationships with such low signal-to-noise ratios that I can really only operate on priors about, broadly speaking, humanity in general. (Discarding these relationships in favour of less bothersome one's isn't an option for various reasons.)

Comment author: Lumifer 09 January 2014 07:48:59PM -1 points [-]

Maybe there is something well-known here that I'm simply unaware of and that you consider obvious.

I think I'm coming from the position that once you have information about a specific person and a specific relationship, general priors are pretty much useless.

To give a simple example, women are, on the average, shorter than men and that would be my prior about the height of someone before seeing her. But once I see her, the prior is completely superseded by the concrete information that I now have.

In the same way when evaluating whether someone specific is likely to change his/her opinion of me, I will rely almost completely on my knowledge of that particular person and not on generic priors.

This feeling I have of not knowing what's going on and what's normal is a source of anxiety to me

Well... I wouldn't worry too much about what's "normal", though I'll point out that e.g. the mainstream picture of women paints them as very emotionally labile in sexually-charged situation.

You might also consider that you are being played games with. Might be for control (to keep you off-balance) or might be just for fun -- some people like drama.

Comment author: Creutzer 09 January 2014 08:01:03PM *  0 points [-]

Well, maybe the only wisdom to be had here is really that if you don't have much more than priors to go on, tough luck, nothing you can do, live with the uncertainty and hope for the best (because actively asking for evidence is too costly). It's likely that this this doesn't bother you as much as me because you're just better at reading social cues; however the hell one is supposed to learn that, especially if one is an introvert and experiences a consequent poverty of stimulus.

Although sometimes it's not even about observing clues. For example, one might know that it's likely that one will at some point behave in some way that the other person would view unfavorably; and you want to estimate how much you should invest in this relationship. Then the only relevant evidence you can get is how this person behaves in dealing with other people.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 January 2014 02:15:16PM *  2 points [-]

That analysis is self centered. It can often be much more useful to ask yourself: "What does this person want? How can I act in a way to help that person to get what they wants?" than to ask yourself: "How will that person judge me for what I do?"

If you interact with me and make a social blunder that makes you appear inconfident, so what if I get the outcome from the interaction that I want?

The outcome might not even be self centered. I like effectively helping someone else improve themselves. If someone asks me advice on something and comes back a week later and tells me he implemented my advice I feel good because something I did had an effect even if it produced no direct personal benefit.

Different people have different goals. One person might want to hang out to avoid being lonely. Another person might want to hang out to with someone have an audience for his jokes. Some people might want to hang out with cool people because then other people will think they are cool.

Traits like confidence do have some effects but you will never make sense of people actions if you don't think about their goals.

Goals also change. Two years ago I engaged in a lot of actions to prove to myself that I'm confident. I satisfied that need and moved on to other topics.

I did things like walking in my dancing course with a 3 people film crew who were filming a documentary about Quantified Self and this was part of a story about how I measure my pulse while dancing Salsa. In some sense that's supposed to be a high status signal.

On the other hands that's not how it works. Having genuine connections with people and caring about what they want matters a lot more than engineering the right status signals and right impressions.

There might be people that you can effectively impress over a long time with a carefully engineered high status first impression but in general that's not the kind of people I want to hang out with. Most people care about whether they have a genuine interaction with you. If you give a high status impression it might they might more likely find the fault at first with them and give you a bit of a benefit of a doubt to develop connection but if no genuine connection develops all your first impression of being confident or otherwise high status won't help you with developing friendships.

Comment author: Creutzer 10 January 2014 09:45:04PM 1 point [-]

That is a good point. I generally feel very powerless when it comes to figuring out what other people want and providing it. Maybe I should make this more of a focus.

Comment author: ChristianKl 11 January 2014 02:27:30PM *  0 points [-]

In my experience figuring out what other people want get's easier if you have a bit of mental distance and can take the far view. If you are focused on what you can do to achieve a certain objective in the next 5 minutes, it's hard to see deeper goals of other people.

Even if you ask them few people will give you their deepest motivations Someone who's lonely and who core motivation comes from the search for companionship won't admit it as doing so would make him emotionally vulnerable.

If you are all the time worried what first impression you make and how the other person judges you, it's also unlikely that you will understand them on that level.

It can be much more about relaxing and listen to the other person than about trying to do something.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 10 January 2014 04:13:14AM -1 points [-]

Spoiling is trivially easy -- just mention that you like to torture kittens in your spare time.

Depends on who you're talking to, my reply would be along the lines of "cool!"

Comment author: satt 10 January 2014 10:19:28AM 0 points [-]

Presumably not a sincere reply...?

Comment author: ChristianKl 11 January 2014 02:55:09PM 1 point [-]

Imagine a situation where Bob asks Dave: Dave? Why didn't you come to my birthday party on Monday? Dave replies: "Monday I was busy torturing kittens."

In most cases, if someone would tell me that they torture kittens in their spare time I first impulse wouldn't be to conclude that they are actually torturing kittens.

The kind of person who can openly joke about torturing kittens in their spare time is likely high confidence. In some social contexts that joke will still get you looked down upon. Knowing what kind of jokes are acceptable and having the ability to push to that limit demonstrates social savviness.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2014 12:59:08AM 4 points [-]

An interesting case is a behavior that makes an initial good impression, but will sour a relationship when continued. Sharp sarcasm or negative joking is the most common example I've observed.

Comment author: moridinamael 09 January 2014 04:44:28PM 11 points [-]

After doing a large amount of research, I feel fairly confident saying that high-dose Potassium supplementation was the initial trigger that pushed me into two-year nightmare struggle with migraines which I am still dealing with. I didn't do anything beyond the recommendations that you can find on gwern's page and gwern doesn't really recomend anything that is technically unsafe, but the fact is that (apparently!) some people are migraine prone and these people should probably definitely not do what I did. (To be clear, I'm not blaming gwern in any way, that's merely a "community reference" that a lot of folks refer to.)

Comment author: drethelin 09 January 2014 08:49:25PM 5 points [-]

Can you link to your more important sources from you research? They could be useful to others.

Comment author: Ander 10 January 2014 12:41:34AM 0 points [-]

I'm interested in this as well, can you send us a link of the research that you found linking potassium supplements to migraines? Thanks!

Comment author: RomeoStevens 10 January 2014 08:35:43AM *  6 points [-]

Interesting, some questions.
1. What is high dose?
2. How was the dosing achieved?
3. What is your sodium and magnesium intake like?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 January 2014 05:05:19PM *  3 points [-]
Comment author: Apprentice 09 January 2014 11:09:55PM 10 points [-]

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked? I figured that once this got to -5 karma it would disappear from view and be forgotten. But it just keeps going down and it's now at -12. This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

What does etiquette suggest I do here? Am I supposed to delete the post to keep people from falling into the trap of reading it? But I like the discussion it spawned and I'd like to preserve it. I'm at a loss and I can't find relevant advice at the wiki.

Comment author: David_Gerard 09 January 2014 11:22:30PM 3 points [-]

-12 points in the discussion section is a pretty trivial karma hit out o.f the 1132 I see you have at this moment. I'd try to do better next time.

Comment author: Apprentice 09 January 2014 11:32:32PM 5 points [-]

Clearly, the karma as such is no problem. I just don't want to annoy people by having them read a text which they are likely to find annoying and I don't want to violate rules of etiquette I might not know about. But if it is normal procedure just to leave this as is, then, sure, let's do it that way.

It is, of course, somewhat unpleasant to discover that something you wrote is disliked but it also affords an opportunity for learning. Next time I try to get LessWrongers to change diapers, I'll approach it differently.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 01:00:07AM 2 points [-]

It is, of course, somewhat unpleasant to discover that something you wrote is disliked but it also affords an opportunity for learning.

I don't recommend optimizing for what other people on the 'net like.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 January 2014 01:37:16AM 5 points [-]

Don't optimize for it. On the other hand it's still good to understand what other people like if you want to convince them.

I do write post that I expect to be voted down, when I think they have merit. On the other hand if I can write a post in a way that will be voted down or in a way that will find acceptance I go for the way that will find acceptance.

Comment author: Emile 10 January 2014 06:50:29AM 11 points [-]

Eh, if someone clicks on an article at -11, then feels reading it was a waste of time, he should blame himself, not you.

Comment author: ChristianKl 09 January 2014 11:36:35PM 4 points [-]

Giving that the post does contain upvoted comments that belong to it deleting it would prevent people from seeing those comments and be bad.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 January 2014 01:02:47AM *  10 points [-]

What are you supposed to do when you've nailed up a post that is generally disliked?

Grin and say "Fuck 'em!"

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 06:38:28AM 2 points [-]

Just leave it. It can serve as lesson to you in the future but in a month no one but you will remember it as it falls off the scroll.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 10 January 2014 08:03:36AM -2 points [-]

One possible solution would be to edit the article, add "[Deleted]" to the title, remove all text and replace it by an explanation like: "The article was deleted because it received a lot of downvotes, but the discussion seems worth keeping; please don't vote on the article anymore."

Comment author: David_Gerard 10 January 2014 09:05:49AM 2 points [-]

Do that without removing the actual text.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 January 2014 03:03:36PM 1 point [-]

I don't think it worth saying that you remove something because downvotes as the only reason. Either you think that people who disagree have a point or you stand by what you wrote in the past.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 10 January 2014 08:40:45AM *  13 points [-]

if we don't have downvoted topics some of the time it means we are being too conservative about what we judge will be useful to others. Only worry if too large a fraction of your stuff gets downvoted.

Comment author: hyporational 10 January 2014 09:22:43PM 2 points [-]

Well, I didn't bother to look this time, but if every bad post got just -5 votes max, the noise would probably unbearable. The extra sting is there for you, not to warn other readers.

Comment author: Apprentice 10 January 2014 10:17:12PM 2 points [-]

Thank you, I hadn't considered that viewpoint.

I actually suspect we have too much sting rather than too little. Compare with this discussion. Furthermore, most of Eliezer's Facebook posts would make good discussion posts or open-thread comments but he posts them there rather than here. I don't know why but maybe he finds it less stressful to post in a system where there are only upvotes and no downvotes.

Also compare with this Oatmeal comic: "How I feel after reading 1,000 insightful, positive comments about my work and one negative one: The whole internet hates me :(" Obviously an exaggeration for effect but I do think most people need a very high ratio of positive to negative feedback to feel good about what they're doing. I admit I do. Many of you, of course, are made of sterner stuff, I don't dispute that.

Comment author: hyporational 11 January 2014 06:06:26AM *  2 points [-]

I don't instinctively like downvotes either, and I suspect it's mostly my personality that magnifies everything negative out of proportion i.e. there's depressive bias. However, if I get downvoted for something really stupid, I find the punishment a very useful deterrent that also works for my personal life. It's the inexplicable votes that bug me the most, but hey, you can't please everyone.

I subscribed to Eliezer's fb feed about a month ago and I'm glad he doesn't post such unpolished ideas here. I think he also posts there because the commenters are better selected and not anonymous. I might be in favor of an upvote only system, if it weren't for the really terrible outlier posters who need to be hidden quickly. For upvotes only , we would need a completely different visibility system.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 January 2014 07:17:25AM 0 points [-]

One way this is often addressed is replacing downvote with flag, and with enough flags it gets hidden (flags and upvotes aren't inverses of each other).

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 11 January 2014 09:58:25AM 1 point [-]

That doesn't seem to scale well with the number of readers. Some discussions attract more people than others; so in the less popular discussions almost nothing would be flagged, but in the more popular ones, any slightly controversial comment would be flagged.

Comment author: [deleted] 11 January 2014 05:37:00PM 0 points [-]

You are assuming a fixed cutoff which I was not.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 January 2014 02:20:07PM *  12 points [-]

This must mean that someone saw the title of it at -11 karma and thought "Sounds promising! Reading this now will be a good use of my time." And then they read it and went: "Arrgh! This turned out to be a disappointing post. Less like this, please. I'd better downvote it to warn others."

Not necessarily. Seeing a heavily downvoted post seems to trigger some kind of group-norm-reinforcement instinct in me: I often end up wanting to read it in the hopes of it being just as bad as the downvotes imply, so that I could join in the others in downvoting it. And I actually get pleasure out of being able to downvote it.

I'm not very proud of acting on that impulse, especially since I'm not going to be able to objectively evaluate a post's merit if I start reading it while hoping it to be bad. But sometimes I do act on it regardless. (I didn't do that with your post, though.)

Comment author: Apprentice 11 January 2014 03:21:07PM 4 points [-]

I hadn't thought of this either! It does sound like fun to hunt with the group.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2014 03:44:41PM 2 points [-]

It does sound like fun to hunt with the group.

Don't forget to bring your own torch and pitchfork.

Comment author: Vulture 12 January 2014 04:23:00AM *  0 points [-]

I've noticed myself doing the same thing and I'd like to turn on anti-kibitzing to avoid it, but when I tried it the whole "hiding post authors" thing was so irritating that I stopped.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 10 January 2014 12:07:22PM 3 points [-]

Again frustrated with being unable to type properly while standing, and remembering how my (no longer usable) braille devices made doing so trivial, I wrote a comment praising the utility of braille input. Then I realized this was dumb, and did an experiment to put my braille typing speed against my qwerty typing speed, using a braille keyboard simulator.

I found that my qwerty speed was over 100WPM; there were no typoes in the test, but I've been known to double-capitalize, drop 'e's, and misplace 'h's quite frequently in the wild.

My braille typing speed was ~76WPM, with an average of one typo every 10 words or so.

I looked up standard typing speeds for qwerty and smart phones, and found that my qwerty speed is above average (80WPM seems to be generally considered impressive), and Typing on Smart Phones is horribly slow, ~25WPM on average (Presumably this was compared with the ~50-70WPM professional qwerty average).

I couldn't find stats on the average typing speed in braille, though this experimental app attempts something similar with touch-screens. See also chorded keyboards.

(I should also note that I'm out of practice with typing quickly in braille; I haven't used a braille input device as a primary device since 2006. I'm also atypically proficient with braille in general. I also expect my qwerty WPM would be lower in the wild than when explicitly tested.)

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2014 07:12:04PM 2 points [-]

This Washington Post piece discusses motivated reasoning, and how given a grouping of the exact same reforms, you can strongly influence whether or not people think it is a good policy by changing the affiliation of the group that endorses it.

Ergo: 5 reforms, labeled blue solutions to green problems, blues like, greens don't. Same 5 reforms labeled green solutions to blue problem, greens like them and blues don't.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-depressing-psychological-theory-that-explains-washington/

Comment author: pan 10 January 2014 09:19:14PM 8 points [-]

I see from time to time people mention a 'rationalist house' as though it is somewhere they live, and everyone else seems to know what they're talking about. What are are they talking about? Are there many of these? Are these in some way actually planned places or just an inside joke of some kind?

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 11 January 2014 12:59:39AM 4 points [-]

These are group houses where a bunch of rationalists live together. Sometimes they hold events for the wider community or host visiting rationalists from out of town. I know of several that exist in the Bay Area, one in Boston, and one in New York. There are probably others.

Comment author: drethelin 10 January 2014 10:50:48PM 4 points [-]

http://mikhailvladimirovich.tumblr.com/post/72908158199/polytheism-as-a-guide-to-morality Some thoughts I had on polytheism as a human-implementable moral system rather than as a factual question.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 11 January 2014 04:26:21AM 1 point [-]

Reminds me of my not-quite-awake-dream-state encounters with Q from Star Trek.

Quoting part of an old comment of mine:

I can, though, relay an interesting experience I had in unintentionally constructing some kind of similar mental archetype while dreaming that kind of stuck around in my mind for a while. I didn't reach into any pantheon though, my mind reached to a mythology which has had its claws in my psyche since childhood - star trek. Q is always trolling the crew of the Enterprise for humanity's benefit, in attempts to get them to meet their potential and progress in understanding or test them. He was there, and let's just say I was thoroughly trolled in a dream, in ways that emphasized certain capabilities of mine that I was not using. And just before waking up he specifically told me that he would be watching me with my own eyes since he was actully part of me that normally didn't speak. That sense of part of me watching and making sure I actually did what I was capable of stuck around for over a week.

Comment author: cousin_it 11 January 2014 01:20:12AM 4 points [-]

I started reading the Culture novels by Iain M. Banks and can't get over the biggest plot hole: where's the flood of people wanting to immigrate into the Culture, and what happens to them?

Comment author: Dr_Manhattan 11 January 2014 01:43:15AM 4 points [-]

He touches on that in "Consider Phlebas". Basically there were other technologically advanced civs with different values, not everyone wanted to join the Culture.

Another possible explanation is that the ship Minds controlled immigration in non-obvious ways (memetic weaponry).

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 03:55:01AM 1 point [-]

Somewhere in the books, I think in Look to Windward, it's pointed out that ambassadors to the Culture end up assimilated and serving unofficially as ambassadors for the Culture instead.

Also, the Culture appears to have trillions of citizens. You could have a large amount of immigration and still not see much of the impact.

Comment author: Alsadius 11 January 2014 05:01:48AM 8 points [-]

I'm having some trouble keeping myself from browsing to timesink websites at work(And I'm self-employed, so it's not like I'm even getting paid for it). Anyone know of a good Chrome app for blocking websites?

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 03:52:02AM 2 points [-]

StayFocusd

Comment author: Alsadius 12 January 2014 05:57:38AM 0 points [-]

That looks like exactly what I was aiming for. Thanks.

Comment author: Calvin 12 January 2014 04:02:43AM 0 points [-]

I was using Leech Block for old fashioned reddit-block for some time, but then I switched to Rescue Time (free version) which tracks time you spend on certain internet sites, and found it much more user friendly. It does not block the sites, but it shows you a percentage estimate of how productive you are today (e.g. Today, 1 hour on internet out of which 30min on Less Wrong - so 50% productive).

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 January 2014 12:53:11AM 2 points [-]

The waterbear, a multicellular organism with neurons-- it can be frozen and revived.

Any thoughts about genetic engineering to make cryonics easier?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 12 January 2014 02:15:15AM *  2 points [-]

Being small enough to freeze solid quickly is a nonstarter.

Cells filling themselves up with trehalose (disaccharide that in many organisms including waterbears and my lab yeast serves as both a fast-degrading energy store [faster than glycogen] and protection against denaturing proteins during both desiccation and freezing) under stress is more plausible but runs afoul of the fact that large animals only have so much soluble sugar at any given time and can't make sugars from lipids - in many cases of organisms that use it as a protective feature it becomes like 10% or more of their weight.

Trying to eliminate the inflammatory response to hypoxia? No idea if that's plausible without causing immune system issues.

Comment author: JQuinton 12 January 2014 01:10:18AM 1 point [-]

I am trying to formalize what I think should be solvable by some game theory, but I don't know enough about decision theory to come up with a solution.

Let's say there are twins who live together. For some reason they can only eat when they both are hungry. This would work as long as they are both actually hungry at the same time, but let's say that one twin wants to gain weight since that twin wants to be a body builder, or one twin wants to lose weight since that twin wants to look better in a tuxedo.

At this point it seems like they have conflicting goals, so this seems like an iterated prisoner's dilemma. And it seems like if this is an iterated prisoner's dilemma, then the best strategy over the long run would be to cooperate. Is that correct, or am I wrong about something in this hypothetical?

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 01:57:52AM 2 points [-]

You're trying to solve a puzzle. Maybe it's a jigsaw puzzle, maybe it's a Sudoku puzzle, maybe it's an interesting math problem. In any case, it's one of those puzzles where you know a solution when you see it, and once it's almost solved, everything falls into place.

At the moment, you're kind of stumped. You've been unable to figure out any more facts using deductive reasoning, so now it's time to resort to trial and error. You have three independent hypotheses about the puzzle. Hypothesis A seems to have an 80% chance of being right, hypothesis B a 50% chance, and hypothesis C a 20% chance. You're going to pick a hypothesis and investigate what seems to happen if this hypothesis is true.

Do you:

  • choose hypothesis A, since it's probably right and so it's likely to lead to the right answer,
  • choose hypothesis B, since this one will yield the most expected information if you figure out whether it's true or false, or
  • choose hypothesis C, since it's probably wrong and so you're likely to find a disproof, thereby giving you more information?

(Of course, assuming that a hypothesis is false is equivalent to assuming that one of these hypotheses is true.)

The answer, of course, is probably "it depends". But what does it depend on, and what's the most likely choice overall?

My first thought is that if it's a really big puzzle, then you'll pretty much only make useful progress by establishing things with certainty (since if you make an assumption you think has a probability of 80% five times, there's only a 33% chance that you were right every time), so your best bet is to assume the hypothesis that is most likely to be falsified, i.e. C. The desire for certainty overrides all other concerns.

But for a really big puzzle, it also makes sense to pick hypothesis B, and try to prove it and to disprove it, because, although you're less likely to come up with a proof, a proof will end up being more useful in this case.

If it's a small puzzle, assuming C is likely to be a waste of time. You might be best off picking hypothesis A, since this is likely to lead you straight to a solution. Or perhaps B is a better option, since now there are four ways it could be useful. You could find that there's no solution where B is true; you could find that there's no solution where B is false; you could find a solution where B is true; or you could find a solution where B is false.

Any thoughts?

Comment author: wadavis 12 January 2014 11:28:15AM 1 point [-]

At one extreme is the weekly sudoku puzzle that is completed for my own enjoyment and I am content with my mastery level. At that extreme I pick A, it is not really a goal to improve my sudoku skill, negative results contribute little.

At the other extreme are your hard coding problems, complex engineering problems, and those little bent steel puzzles that you have to take apart and reassemble in apparently impossible ways; Here the long term goal is not to solve the single problem but to learn and solve the problem type. These problems are either without an A solution, or you want greater mastery of the field so that next time only A or B solutions are on the table instead of the B and C solutions. Eventually your peers start coming to you with their A, B, C dilemmas and you can give them the right answer with 100% confidence. After that you will be known as a guru in your field and reap all the prestige and profit that comes with that (results may vary depending on field).

In short it depends on your goal, A to solve the problem, C to solve the problem type. B is a compromise if you want C but the budget doesn't allow for it.

Comment author: [deleted] 12 January 2014 02:14:41AM 4 points [-]

Less Wrong contains so much advice that it's impossible to follow even a large fraction of it. How should I decide what advice to actually follow?

Comment author: ChristianKl 12 January 2014 12:36:26PM 1 point [-]

I would start with looking at what are the most important issue that you face at the moment in your life.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 12 January 2014 02:33:57AM 4 points [-]

Does anyone here play League? I'm AIXItl.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 12 January 2014 03:30:38AM *  15 points [-]

A few months ago, I re-read HPMOR in its entirety, and had an insight about the Hermione / feminism issue that I'd previously missed when I wrote this comment. I never got around to saying it anywhere, so I'm saying it here:

I'd previously written:

HPMOR kinda feels off because canonically, Hermione is unambiguously the most competent person in Harry's year, and has a good chance of growing up to be the most competent person in the 'verse. Harry is kept at the center of the story by his magical connection to Voldemort. In HPMOR, in contrast, Harry is kept at the center of the story by competence and drive. It's going to be very hard to do that without it feeling like Hermione is getting shafted.

But actually, HPMOR closely parallels cannon on this point: Methods!Hermione got just as much of an intelligence upgrade as Methods!Harry did, so she's still unambiguously more competent than him, at least before repeated use of his mysterious dark side gave him a mental age-up. This is more or less explicitly pointed out in chapter 21:

She'd done better than him in every single class they'd taken. (Except for broomstick riding which was like gym class, it didn't count.) She'd gotten real House points almost every day of their first week, not for weird heroic things, but smart things like learning spells quickly and helping other students. She knew those kinds of House points were better, and the best part was, Harry Potter knew it too. She could see it in his eyes every time she won another real House point.

The that the universe is being grossly unfair to Hermione, and this is hammered home multiple times. E.g. I can't find it at the moment but I think there's a scene where Harry explains to her she can't get house points for telling adults about the secret message in the Sorting Hat. Or there's this exchange in the Self-Actualization arc (emphasis added):

She couldn't find words. She'd never been able to find words. "If you get too near Harry - you get swallowed up, and no one sees you any more, you're just something of his, everyone thinks the whole world revolves around him and..." She didn't have the words.

The old wizard nodded slowly. "It is indeed an unjust world we live in, Miss Granger. All the world now knows that it is I who defeated Grindelwald, and fewer remember Elizabeth Beckett who died opening the way so I could pass through. And yet she is remembered. Harry Potter is the hero of this play, Miss Granger; the world does revolve around him. He is destined for great things; and I ween that in time the name of Albus Dumbledore will be remembered as Harry Potter's mysterious old wizard, more than for anything else I have done. And perhaps the name of Hermione Granger will be remembered as his companion, if you prove worthy of it in your day. For this I tell you true: never will you find more glory on your own, than in Harry Potter's company."

I think what happened is that Eliezer realized how unfair the universe was to Hermione in canon, and decided to keep things that way in HPMOR but comment on it. Which is clever, but looks like Eliezer being unfair to Hermione for no good reason if you don't understand he's commenting on the screwiness of canon.

Related thing I noticed: Hermione is probably the most incredibly brave character in HPMOR. Think about it: she, as a twelve year old girl, is told she has an important job to do helping Harry, and then one of the scariest dark wizards who ever lived tries destroy her, when he doesn't succeed at that, tries to convince her to just run, and she stands her ground. As a twelve year old girl against an ultra-powerful dark wizard. And that's ultimately why she died. Make no mistake about it: she died a hero's death.

Edit: this is relevant.

Comment author: Prismattic 12 January 2014 04:12:04AM *  6 points [-]

(My thoughts are still not sufficiently organized that I’m making a top level post about this, but I think it’s worth putting out for discussion.)

A couple of years ago, in a thread I can no longer find, someone argued that they valued the pleasure they got from defecation, and that they would not want to bioengineer away the need to do so. I thought this was ridiculous.

At the same time, I see many Lesswrongers view eating as a chore that they would like to do away with. And yet I also find this ridiculous.

So I was thinking about where there difference lay for me. My working hypothesis is that there are two elements of pleasure: relief and satisfaction. Defecation, or a drink of water when you’re very thirsty bring you relief, but not really satisfaction. Eating a gourmet meal, on the other hand, may or may not bring relief, depending on how hungry you are when you eat it, but it’s very satisfying. The ultimate pleasure is sex, which culminates in a very intense sense of both relief and satisfaction. (Masturbation, at least from a male perspective, can provide the relief but only a tiny fraction of the satisfaction – hence the difference in pleasure from sex.)

I can understand the desire to minimize or eliminate the need for functions that serve only to provide relief, but I think the “let’s subsist on Soylent” people are throwing the satisfaction baby out with the relief bathwater. I suspect lack of awareness of the possibility of satisfaction as well as relief may also explain the comments I’ve seen here from people who are asexual and happy about that (but I’m less confident in this case because the inferential distance is large.)

Comment author: CAE_Jones 12 January 2014 01:29:20PM 1 point [-]

I would rather get rid of eating but keep defecation, though I don't know that I could say why. The relief/satisfaction thing is certainly interesting.

I once had a conversation in this vein that went like this:

  • Him: In Heaven, pizza grows on trees.
  • Me: In heaven, people wouldn't need to eat.
  • Him: Good point. But maybe eating as a form of pleasure?
  • Me: kinda flabberghasted

If nothing else, the parent got me to evaluate my preferences and realize that I was using them hypocritically in situations such as the above.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 12 January 2014 01:36:36PM *  1 point [-]

Defecation, or a drink of water when you’re very thirsty bring you relief, but not really satisfaction.

I feel that both of these can provide satisfaction as well, though I'm less sure about the water.

I can understand the desire to minimize or eliminate the need for functions that serve only to provide relief, but I think the “let’s subsist on Soylent” people are throwing the satisfaction baby out with the relief bathwater.

Or they just get more satisfaction from other things than eating.