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Lumifer comments on AALWA: Ask any LessWronger anything - Less Wrong Discussion

28 Post author: Will_Newsome 12 January 2014 02:18AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 12 January 2014 07:34:32PM 3 points [-]

What are the error bars around these estimates?

Comment author: JoshuaFox 12 January 2014 07:41:51PM 4 points [-]

The first estimate: 50% probability between 2015 and 2020.

The second estimate: 50% probability between 2020 and 2035. (again, taking into account all the conditioning factors).

Comment author: Lumifer 13 January 2014 03:25:08AM 4 points [-]

Um.

2017

50% probability between 2015 and 2020.

The distribution is asymmetric for obvious reasons. The probability for 2014 is pretty close to zero. This means that there is a 50% probability that a serious code project will start after 2020.

This is inconsistent with 2017 being a median estimate.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 January 2014 05:26:43PM 1 point [-]

Unless he thinks it's very unlikely the project will start between 2017 and 2020 for some reason.

Comment author: JoshuaFox 13 January 2014 09:10:34AM 1 point [-]

Good point. I'll have to re-think that estimate and improve it.

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