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Kaj_Sotala comments on Division of cognitive labour in accordance with researchers' ability - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: Stefan_Schubert 16 January 2014 09:28AM

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Comment author: chaosmage 16 January 2014 09:56:52AM *  7 points [-]

If the difference in success was due to a difference in skill, I'd expect people who have previously been successful scientists to be reliably also successful in other areas, say as entrepreneurs. I don't see that being the case, so I suspect the difference in success is not so much due to a difference in skill.

My intuitive theory of scientific success involves more luck, and I think of it as akin to mining. An individual researcher gets to pick a mountain to dig into, and of course the mountain of computational neuroscience can be reasonably suspected to yield more interesting ore than the mountain of dentistry. Inside the field, the researcher may try to attack a particular side of the mountain, or sub-field. But after that, the actual find of something interesting - a new and relevant phenomenon, a new and powerful explanation - has a lot to do with conscientiousness (which simply makes them "dig" a lot) and luck. Of course success has its own effects, from greater scrutiny on future work to improved communication with esteemed colleagues to the halo effect.

In that metaphor, what Einstein, Feynman and others did was possibly more like underground mining, chasing an interesting vein to wherever it led, while modern incrementally published mass research is more like surface mining - much slower, involving a lot more earth/paper, much less romantic, but ultimately more exhaustive.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 17 January 2014 07:56:08PM 4 points [-]

At least researchers tend to display relatively consistent output within a field: http://resources.emartin.net/blog/docs/AgeAchievement.pdf

Generally, the top 10% of the most prolific elite can be credited with around 50% of all contributions, whereas the bottom 50% of the least productive workers can claim only 15% of the total work, and the most productive contributor is usually about 100 times more prolific than the least (Dennis, 1954b, 1955; also see Lotka, 1926; Price, 1963, chap. 2). Now from a purely logical perspective, there are three distinct ways of achieving an impressive lifetime output that enables a creator to dominate an artistic or scientific enterprise. First, the individual may exhibit exceptional precocity, beginning contributions at an uncommonly early age. Second, the individual may attain a notable lifetime total by producing until quite late in life, and thereby display productive longevity. Third, the individual may boast phenomenal output rates throughout a career, without regard to the career's onset and termination. These three components are mathematically distinct and so may have almost any arbitrary correlation whatsoever with each other, whether positive, negative, or zero, without altering their respective contributions to total productivity. In precise terms, it is clear that O = R(L - P), where O is lifetime output, R is the mean rate of output throughout the career, L is the age at which the career ended (longevity), and P is the age at which the career began (precocity). The correlations among these three variables may adopt a wide range of arbitrary values without violating this identity. For example, the difference L - P, which defines the length of a career, may be more or less constant, mandating that lifetime output results largely from the average output rate R, given that those who begin earlier, end earlier, and those who begin later, end later. Or output rates may be more or less constant, forcing the final score to be a function solely of precocity and longevity, either singly or in conjunction. In short, R, L, and P, or output rate, longevity, and precocity, comprise largely orthogonal components of O, the gauge of total contributions.

When we turn to actual empirical data, we can observe two points. First, as might be expected, precocity, longevity, and output rate are each strongly associated with final lifetime output, that is, those who generate the most contributions at the end of a career also tend to have begun their careers at earlier ages, ended their careers at later ages, and produced at extraordinary rates throughout their careers (e.g., Albert, 1975; Blackburn et al., 1978; Bloom, 1963; Clemente, 1973; S. Cole, 1979; Richard A. Davis, 1987; Dennis, 1954a, 1954b; Helson & Crutchfield, 1970; Lehman, 1953a; Over, 1982a, 1982b; Raskin, 1936; Roe, 1965, 1972a, 1972b; Segal, Busse, & Mansfield, 1980; R. J. Simon, 1974; Simonton, 1977c; Zhao & Jiang, 1986). Second, these three components are conspicuously linked with each other: Those who are precocious also tend to display longevity, and both precocity and longevity are positively associated with high output rates per age unit (Blackburn et al., 1978; Dennis, 1954a, 1954b, 1956b; Horner et al., 1986; Lehman, 1953a, 1958; Lyons, 1968; Roe, 1952; Simonton, 1977c; Zuckerman, 1977).

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 20 January 2014 04:09:01PM 2 points [-]

Why are you talking about "rate"? Is that like measuring programmer productivity in lines of code?

Comment author: Stefan_Schubert 17 January 2014 08:11:09PM 1 point [-]

Thanks for providing me with some backing for what I said in the OP concerning the great differences in productivity between different researchers.