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Brillyant comments on Community bias in threat evaluation - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (26)
It seems these groups exist, in large part, as an effect of their beliefs about the biggest risks. You're not afraid of global warming and pollution because you are an environmentalist, rather you are an evironmentalist because of your fear of global warning and pollution.
That said, I'm not sure what your point is. I'm sure there are many in each group who haven't done the math themselves and are just following like sheep. But it is the same regardless of what we are talking about...it certainly isn't specific to evalutating threats to humanity. Just groupthink and half a dozen other biases at play.
The other thing is that groups may not be focusing on the largest existential threat at any given time. Instead they might be spending time on a particular issue that has come to the forefront.
Conservative Christianity, for instance, is dealing with homosexuality right now. But that is really just a pawn in a much larger eschatological endgame. Homosexuality isn't really that big a threat to Christians. Hell is a bigger threat.
I actually think the former is more true than the latter. You first become an environmentalist (through e.g. social pressure and status-seeking) and then filter your information input to become fearful of global warming and pollution.
How do you define 'environmentalist'?
What percentage of the community who considers UFAI a major risk is only part of that community because of social pressure and status-seeking?
No idea. However I am unaware of any social pressure to join LW. On the other hand, there is a lot of social pressure to, let's say, display environmentalist sensibilities.
Hm. Perhaps I asked poorly.
Would you say the social pressure as motivation to agree with the severity AI risks becomes significant once one voluntarily joins a community like LW?
If there are, say, 1000 active members, 500 of which believe that UFAI is the most important threat to deal with, how many of those 500 people have authentically arrived at that conclusion by doing the math? And how many are simply playing along because of social pressure, status-seeking, and a sort of Pascal's Wager that benefits them nothing for dissenting?
Yes, provided you want to integrate into the community (and not e.g. play the role of a contrarian).
I don't know but I would expect very few. Also, you can't arrive at this conclusion by doing math because at this point the likelihood of UFAI is a matter of your priors, not available data.
Evidence?
No evidence, just some anecdata as I know a couple of people for whom it happened in this order.
There is no sharp boundary, of course, and there's a bit of a feedback loop there, too. It's kinda like asking whether someone feared hell and because of that became a Christian, or whether she became a Christian and that made her fear hell...
On that particular example, it seems to me that anyone who fears hell is (at least) most of the way to Christianity already. Assuming it's the Christian hell they fear, of course, but then it's hard to see how fear of some other religion's hell would incline someone to become a Christian.
If you asked the people in question how their opinions evolved, do you think they would give an account that matches yours?
A lot of religions have much unpleasantness in the afterlife as a possibility :-/
Which is why I added "Assuming it's the Christian hell they fear", etc.