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Vaniver comments on The Onrushing Wave - Less Wrong Discussion
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It seems to me that those things are pretty quickly explained if you throw race and IQ in to your model, which aren't likely to change in the near future, and tech is still the thing likely to change significantly in the near future.
Immigration can make countries much less homogenous in terms of race, to the point where you can't predict much about a country's or area's population. (I'm talking on a global scale, not about immigration to the US.)