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CellBioGuy comments on Why don't more rationalists start startups? - Less Wrong Discussion
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In recent years a huge number of computer technology startups are effectively being subsidized by free money sloshing around the monetary system searching desperately for anything resembling a return in a low interest rate environment. That plus human psychology equals massive bubble valuations that are horrifically unstable and have remarkably little basis in reality.
I don't think you can predict going forward in time that such circumstances would last.
EDIT: Also, isn't the above post pretty much a textbook example of the planning fallacy?
This is actually an argument in favor of going into startups, no? If valuations are unusually high then your expected payout is higher than usual too. Your "I don't think you can predict" is relevant, but it sounds like you actually are making a prediction that this all won't last long.
The Planning Fallacy, as commonly known, refers to the fact that people consistently underestimate the time needed to complete a task, not the probably of success of an endeavour.