http://lesswrong.com/lw/1p5/outside_view_as_conversationhalter/
I'm not even claiming that the inside view yields better predictions. I'm just saying, "let's try it". What I'm getting, from the comments is "no, you shouldn't try it". To claim that it's not even worth trying, is to claim that the inside view has such a low likelihood of working, that it isn't even worth your time/energy.
And for the record, I'm taking a Weak Inside View.
In the links you referenced Eliezer Yudkowsky argues against applying the outside view for the singularity and AI foom. His argument is that the singularity is like nothing we've seen before, and so while there are many applicable outside views, in none of them is the analogy between the particular event being considered and others in the reference class compelling.
In contrast, you are making an argument about startups, which have already been done many times, and are encouraging others to do something in the pre-existing reference class. This is exactly the domain of applicability for outside view arguments and Eliezer Yudkowsky's counterarguments are inapplicable.
My motivation behind this post stems from Aumann's agreement theorem. It seems that my opinions on startups differ from most of the rationality community, so I want to share my thoughts, and hear your thoughts, so we could reach a better conclusion.
I think that if you're smart and hard working, there's a pretty good chance that you achieve financial independence within a decade of the beginning of your journey to start a startup. And that's my conservative estimate.
"Achieve financial independence" only scratches the surface of the benefits of succeeding with a startup. If you're an altruist, you'll get to help a lot of other people too. And making millions of dollars will also allow you the leverage you need to make riskier investments with much higher expected values, allowing you to grow your money quickly so you could do more good.
A lot of this is predicated on my belief that you have a good chance at succeeding if you're smart and hardworking, so let me explain why I think this.
Along the lines of reductionism, "success with a startup" is an outcome (I guess we could define success as a $5-10M exit in under 10 years). And outcomes consist of their components. My argument consists of breaking the main outcome into it's components, and then arguing that the components are all likely enough for the main outcome to be likely.
I think that the 4 components are:
The Idea
Your idea has to be for a product or service (I'll just say product to keep things simple) that creates demand, and can be met profitably. In other words, make something people want (this article spells it out pretty well).
What could go wrong?