In the links you referenced Eliezer Yudkowsky argues against applying the outside view for the singularity and AI foom. His argument is that the singularity is like nothing we've seen before, and so while there are many applicable outside views, in none of them is the analogy between the particular event being considered and others in the reference class compelling.

In contrast, you are making an argument about startups, which have already been done many times, and are encouraging others to do something in the pre-existing reference class. This is exactly the domain of applicability for outside view arguments and Eliezer Yudkowsky's counterarguments are inapplicable.