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adamzerner comments on Why don't more rationalists start startups? - Less Wrong Discussion
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My response will just lead to 'reference class tennis', which is why I think that for the purposes of having a conversation, we should take the inside view.
I think that people are getting too attached to my 80-90% success rate claim, and impulsively arguing that it's wrong. My intentions in this article (that I thought were pretty clear) are just to get a conversation going about the components, work towards agreeing on those, and then maybe try to guess at what the resulting success rate will be.