jkaufman comments on Why don't more rationalists start startups? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Before we get into more details, here are some higher-level thoughts on the business overall: how will people get to your site and how will you make money from them?
One strategy is to pay for ads. People doing this already are easy to find: search in an incognito window with questions like "college information", "choose college", or "college for me" (be imaginative). Click on the ads that don't look like they're for particular colleges. This drops me on a few landing pages:
You don't know very much about these businesses, but you know they're all making enough money on an ad click for it to be worth it for them to advertise here. (Looking in the AdWords keyword planner suggests they're paying $5-$20 per visitor (CPC).) If one of these sites is doing something that seems weird to you, don't write it off as dumb: they're making money or they wouldn't be able to afford to show up when you did the search. Maybe they have some low-hanging fruit in improving their layout, and they certainly don't all look the same, but if in doubt they probably know something you don't.
It's also possible for people to come to you via searches. Do some searches yourself; see who shows up. This business model is harder to replicate because it's much less clear how they got onto the front page for a search. SEO advice tends to be terrible, and for good reason: it's an adversarial game where success is very lucrative and people are constantly pushing limits to see how scummy/profitable they can get without stepping over the line and getting banned (recent example: rapgenius).
Word of mouth and viral/social are also possible, but even less predictable. But then my bias here is for paying for traffic because I used to work in advertising and it all feels very natural to me. But however people get to your site, you want a good sized flow so you can experiment and test things and see what works. Iterating with no one watching is hard to get to go anywhere. (One nice thing about the non-ads flow is that focusing on making your users happy and have a good experience lines up with your incentives. If you go the ads flow every visitor is to a first approximation someone you'll never see again and so you don't care about their experience just how much money you can get from them. It's like businesses that cater to regulars vs tourists.)
Once people get on your site, how do you get money from them? The simple strategy is to put up ads, like adsense. These pay very little, like $0.01 to $1 per thousand visits. Maybe somewhat higher because you're in a vertical (education) where there are advertisers with a bunch of money to spend (colleges). There's no way you can pay for ads at $5 per click and make your money back at $0.001/visit. So what are those sites like educationmatch doing? They're collecting information from people and selling it to colleges. This is called "lead-gen" advertising. The most obvious form is when you land on a page and it immediately asks you for information about yourself. If you're going to place search ads, you basically have to do lead-gen; nothing else is profitable enough per-visit. (When you start off you'll sell leads to a lead-aggregator who sells them to the colleges. When you get big you negotiate deals directly with the colleges and get a bit more per lead.) If instead you want to make money by putting ads on your pages you need to go with cheaper but higher-volume sources of traffic, like being awesome, getting people to link to you and talk about you, and getting high up on search results pages.
Back to specific design notes:
To actually answer this question you need data from your site and competitors to compare bounce rates. You're not going to get that, so the best you can do is calibrate retrospectively: when you do get a designer and redo your site you should A/B test the redesign so you can see it's impact. This only works if you have enough traffic by then to get meaningful results.
My guess is that the appearance will make some people leave with "this looks unprofessional/fake" but this isn't something I'm good at estimating. You should at least fix the aspect ratio on the main image; I found the vertical squishing very distracting. Cropping it instead of scaling it in the browser would work, as would using only one of height= and width=.
unigo looks more professional to me, though still not as polished as something could be. But polish isn't everything; many of the sites I linked to above aren't going to win any design awards. Many of them look kind of tacky and overly slick. They're all making money, though.
Sit down with someone and watch what they do with your site. Then sit down with someone else. Look at your competitors and take the best ideas from many sources, then mock up a new front page design and sit down with another person. Repeat until you run out of fresh victims/friends. You're too small for fully-automated a/b testing, so substitute quality for quantity and watch real users in person.
Many colleges have a contiguous IP range. For example, everyone browsing from on-campus at Swarthmore will be 130.58.something.something. Make guesses from looking at the IP of the college webserver, and if various departments that do their own webhosting (cs, math) all are in the same IP range you're probably good. You can also look through your server logs to see the visits from people you know are at certain schools. It's also possible that this can be looked up somewhere.
It's a balance. Trying to channel "teenage girl" I have the impression that "how hot are the girls" would be something I would find off-putting. But my mental model is pretty bad here, having never been one.
A final note: this all sounds kind of mercenary. My perspective is that's what you have to do if you want to make money in such a tightly competitive market. That's part of why I'm glad I don't work in this industry anymore.
That's the plan.
Ok; keep in mind that this means bringing in a lot of traffic. You're talking about wanting to build a company you could sell for $5-10M, which means either something like $500k in profit a year or the expectation of even more profit in a few more years. Your costs might be $2M/year, so you'd need to bring in $2.5M/year in ad revenue. At a $1 CPM that's 2.5B pageviews a year or 7M pageviews daily. That's 1/60th the traffic Wikipedia gets, and Wikipedia is massive, so this is a very challenging traffic goal.
via http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/10/10/a-website-for-rating-big-life-decisions/
It's funny, now I'm arguing for the outside view instead of the inside view :)
If they "run largely off of ad-based revenue, especially targeted advertising", and "have 21 employees", I could too. My guess is that the numbers work because they have higher CPMs because they have such a targeted audience.
My overarching point though, is that it could be monetized, not that advertising is the best way to do it. My evidence is that all my major competitors are multi-million dollar companies, and that I think I could out-do them (more users, more engaged users, better information, more brand recognition...).
But you can't put yourself in the same reference class as these companies, because it's most likely that they started out with more resources, bigger teams, more experienced founders, and/or more connections than you.
You could make that argument against a lot of startups.
Yes, it's probably true that there are successful startups who began with less resources than the incumbents in their industries. Yet these companies may start out with more resources than you seem to have available.
There are many business models other than launching a multi-million dollar mass consumer website that monetizes from advertising. In my view, such a business is relatively risky and resource-intensive. It seems to me that you have chosen an especially challenging business model for your first startup.
Bringing a product to a mass market is a challenge; see the examples edanm and I raised of restaurants and movies flopping because they fail to resonate with the market. The wider the market it is that you are aiming for, the harder it is to make a product that resonates with them.
So, I did not intend to sound like I was making a fully general counter-argument. I want to specifically caution founders where there is a large gap between their current resources/experience, and the demands of their business model, especially when their business model requires targeting a mass market, and they have no experience marketing to even a small or niche market.
Sorry for the delay, but here's my pitch: http://www.collegeanswerz.com/pitch . I think it'll enable a more productive discussion of the viability of my website.
Also, check out http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jmn/salary_or_startup_how_dogooders_can_gain_more/ .
I skimmed the pitch. I think you are probably correct that there is a business opportunity in this area. Nevertheless, my main view is that a good idea or business opportunity is only a small part of building a business.
Consequently, your pitch seems a bit more like a theoretical paper on a business case, such as in a class project as school. That's different from attracting consumers (who require good marketing and design, not spreadsheets) and investors (who need to believe that you in particular are capable of executing on your idea).
I will continue to recommend that you learn more about design and marketing, and ideally work with other people in those areas. Unfortunately, to fully argue this point, I would need to give extensive feedback, which would take me too much time and space to write up. I concur with the critical feedback that others have given in the thread.
A big challenge is the fact that if you are the type of person who posts on LW, then your mind is quite different from the average consumer, and you will not be very well calibrated to understand what they find attractive, usable, hearable, and valuable. Bridging this gap in perspective will take considerable work.
As for the article you link to, I agree with you there is a good expected value for you in a risky project. I will still emphasize the execution risks involved in this project. Ultimately, I think that even if you fail fast at making a successful business, you will still gain value from this project, as long as you don't burn too much time, capital, or other resources. You can always go work at someone else's startup and build skills and connections for a future startup of your own.
Thanks for the response.
All "execution means", is 1) raising the money I need to pay for people to answer questions at all schools on the site, 2) market this to high school students, 3) get enough momentum to raise a series A, and 4) hire the right people to help me expand. At least that should get me to be a player in the market.
I agree that I'm no expert in design/marketing, but I think I could do a good enough job at them to get me to a point where I could hire experts.
You're making a lot of outside-view arguments, but I'm taking an inside-view with my website (I think I have enough information to take an inside view).
It's like the map and the territory - inside-view is like looking at a lower-level map. So it's like we're looking at two different maps. Your interpretation of your higher level map may be correct, but the lower level map might have more information that leads to a different answer.
Right now, I'm working on a big comparison of my site, to all of my competitors. Comparing what my site has to what they have. I hope to be done in the next few days, and I'll let you know when I am and show you what I've got. I think it'll make more sense once I could show it to you, and I think it'll allow for a more productive discussion. (Note: I should have done this explicit comparison earlier on, like immediately. I'm very disappointed in myself for not doing so. Like this has been the most disappointed I've been in myself in over a year probably. Thanks for taking the time to discuss this with me.)
Sorry for the delay, but here's my pitch: http://www.collegeanswerz.com/pitch . It should clear things up and enable a more productive discussion if you're still interested.
Also, check out http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jmn/salary_or_startup_how_dogooders_can_gain_more/ .