Your post was downvoted because it displayed a tremendous ignorance of the problem's magnitude, trying to hit a 16-pound nail with a 4-ounce hammer.

Sorry if it wasn't clear, but my intentions weren't really to make an argument, they were to open a discussion.

Open

My motivation behind this post stems from Aumann's agreement theorem. It seems that my opinions on startups differ from most of the rationality community, so I want to share my thoughts, and hear your thoughts, so we could reach a better conclusion.

Close

I really mean for this article to be a starting point for discussion. I think that if we outline the components and discuss each one, we'll make a lot of progress in coming to an agreement. So let me know which components you think I omitted, and which components you think I'm mistaken about.

I wanted to attempt to take an Inside View at startup likelihood, and get feedback. So maybe I did start off with a 4-ounce hammer, but the idea was to bulk that hammer up so we could attack a problem that I think has major upside, and that suffers from notable cached thoughts.