My claim is that is that it will be hard to build significant momentum prior to getting a level of design and marketing which is significantly beyond your current ability as someone with a programming background.
Ok, now I understand. (As an aside, I don't even have much of a programming background! I taught myself Rails this past summer, and this is the first website I built.)
I disagree; I think there's a very real need for more comprehensive student reviews, and the design of my website isn't going to prevent people from using it. The design may not blow you away aesthetically, but I think it's at least pretty straightforward and easy to use. Aside from my own intuition, a lot of people I've talked to said they love the site and would find it useful if it had reviews.
Regarding marketing, 1) I talked to a college advisor I know, and she said she likes the site a lot, and wants to tell all the other advisors she knows about it once I get reviews. So I think I could spread the word by doing more of this. 2) I talked to a guy on the school board of my town, and he said he loves it and that guidance counselors would be happy to spread the word, so that also seems like spreading via guidance counselors will also be effective. 3) There's a lot of people writing about How to Choose a College, and I think it'll be in their interest to spread word of my site, being that it helps people choose a college. 4) Social media advertising. 5) Word of mouth. Not to downplay the value of marketing, but from what I read, things that solve real problems tend to find their way to users.
My motivation behind this post stems from Aumann's agreement theorem. It seems that my opinions on startups differ from most of the rationality community, so I want to share my thoughts, and hear your thoughts, so we could reach a better conclusion.
I think that if you're smart and hard working, there's a pretty good chance that you achieve financial independence within a decade of the beginning of your journey to start a startup. And that's my conservative estimate.
"Achieve financial independence" only scratches the surface of the benefits of succeeding with a startup. If you're an altruist, you'll get to help a lot of other people too. And making millions of dollars will also allow you the leverage you need to make riskier investments with much higher expected values, allowing you to grow your money quickly so you could do more good.
A lot of this is predicated on my belief that you have a good chance at succeeding if you're smart and hardworking, so let me explain why I think this.
Along the lines of reductionism, "success with a startup" is an outcome (I guess we could define success as a $5-10M exit in under 10 years). And outcomes consist of their components. My argument consists of breaking the main outcome into it's components, and then arguing that the components are all likely enough for the main outcome to be likely.
I think that the 4 components are:
The Idea
Your idea has to be for a product or service (I'll just say product to keep things simple) that creates demand, and can be met profitably. In other words, make something people want (this article spells it out pretty well).
What could go wrong?