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Open thread, January 25- February 1

8 Post author: NancyLebovitz 25 January 2014 02:52PM

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Comments (316)

Comment author: ialdabaoth 02 February 2014 04:54:45AM 1 point [-]

I keep looping through the same crisis lately, which comes up any time someone points out that I'm pretentious / an idiot / full of shit / lebens unwertes leben / etc.:

Is there a good way for me to know if I'm actually any good at anything? What are appropriate criteria to determine whether I deserve to have pride in myself and my abilities? And what are appropriate criteria to determine whether I have the capacity to determine whether I've met those criteria?

Comment author: Lumifer 04 February 2014 01:00:49AM *  1 point [-]

Is there a good way for me to know if I'm actually any good at anything?

I recommend empirical reality. The kind that exists outside of your (and other people's) head.

Comment author: shminux 04 February 2014 12:29:13AM 1 point [-]

Having followed your posts here and on #lesswrong, I got an impression of your personality as a bizarre mix of insecurities and narcissism (but without any malice), and this comment is no exception. You are certainly in need of a few sessions with a good therapist, but, judging by your past posts, you are not likely to actually go for it, so that's a catch 22. Alternatively, taking a Dale Carnegie course and actually taking its lessons to heart and putting an effort into it might be a good idea. Or a similar interpersonal relationship course you can find locally and afford.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 February 2014 09:06:02PM *  1 point [-]

bizarre mix of insecurities and narcissism

If you don't mind, I'm gonna use this in my twitter's bio.

Comment author: ialdabaoth 04 February 2014 01:04:55AM 0 points [-]

Yeah, the narcissism is something that I've been trying to come up with a good plan for purging since I first became aware of it. (I sometimes think that some of the insecurities originally started as a botched attempt to undo the narcissism).

The therapy will absolutely happen as soon as I have a reasonable capacity to distinguish "good" therapists from "bad" ones.

Comment author: wedrifid 08 February 2014 12:57:28AM 1 point [-]

The therapy will absolutely happen as soon as I have a reasonable capacity to distinguish "good" therapists from "bad" ones.

Bad plan (and also a transparent, falsely humble excuse to procrastinate). Picking a therapist at random will give you distinctly positive expected value. Picking a therapist recommended by a friend or acquaintance will give you somewhat better expected value.

Incidentally, one of the methods by which you can most effectively boost your ability to distinguish between good therapists from bad therapists is by having actual exposure to therapists.

Comment author: gjm 03 February 2014 12:01:24AM 2 points [-]

Some things are easier to tell whether you're good at than others. I guess you aren't talking about the more assessable things (school/university studies, job, competitive sport, weightlifting, ...) but about things with a strong element of judgement (quality as a friend or lover, skill in painting, ...) or a lot of noise mixed with any signal there might be (stock-picking[1], running a successful startup company, ...).

[1] Index funds are the canonical answer to that one, but you know that already.

So, anyway, the answer to "how do I tell if I'm any good at X?" depends strongly on X.

But maybe you really mean not "(know if I'm actually any good at) anything" but know if I'm actually (any good at anything)" -- i.e., the question isn't "am I any good at X?" but "is there anything I'm any good at?". The answer to that is almost certainly yes; if someone is seriously suggesting otherwise then they are almost certainly dishonest or stupid or malicious or some combination of those, and should be ignored unless they have actual power to harm you; if some bit of your brain is seriously suggesting otherwise then you should learn to ignore it.

There are almost certainly specific X you have good evidence of being good at, which will imply a positive answer to "is there anything I'm good at?". Pick a few, inspect them as closely as you feel you have to to be sure you aren't fooling yourself, and remember the answer.

If someone else is declaring publicly that you are a pretentious idiot and full of shit, it is likely that what's going on is not at all that they're trying to make an objective assessment of your capabilities or character, but that they are engaged in some sort of fight over status or influence or something, and are saying whatever seems like it may do damage. I expect you have good reasons for getting into that sort of fight, so I'll just say: bear in mind when you do that this is a thing that happens, and that such comments are usually not useful feedback for self-assessment.

If you want to mention some specific X, I expect you'll get some advice on ways to assess whether you're any good at it/them. But I think the most important thing here is that the thing that's provoking your self-doubt, although it looks like an assessment of your capabilities, really isn't any such thing.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 February 2014 04:28:34PM 2 points [-]

You could take a cognitive psych approach to some of this. What are the other person's qualifications?

I recommend exploring the concept of good enough.

There's a bit in Nathaniel Branden about "a primitive sense of self-affirmation"-- which I take to be the assurance that babies start out with that they get to care about their pain and pleasure. It isn't even a question for them. And animals are pretty much the same.

You don't need to have a right to be on your own side, you can just be on your own side.

Something I've been working on is getting past the idea that the universe is keeping score, and I have to get everything right.

What I believe about your situation is that you've been siding with your internal attack voice, and you need to associate your sense of self with other aspects of yourself like overall physical sensations.

Do you have people who are on your side? If so, can you explore taking their opinion seriously?

The attack voice comes on so strong it seems like the voice of reality, but it's just a voice. I've found that it's hard work to change my relationship to my attack voice, but it's possible.

For what it's worth, I think your prose is good. It's clear, and the style (as distinct from the subject matter) is pleasant.

Comment author: ialdabaoth 02 February 2014 04:37:08PM *  1 point [-]

What are the other person's qualifications?

Generally, their qualifications are that the audience is rallying around them. Also, they don't know me, which makes them less likely to be biased in my favor. (I.e., the old "my mom says I'm great at <X>, so shut up!" problem)

...the assurance that babies start out with that they get to care about their pain and pleasure.

This flies in the face of the political climate I exist within, that talks primarily about the gallish "entitlement" of poor people who believe they have the right to food and shelter and work.

Do you have people who are on your side? If so, can you explore taking their opinion seriously?

It's very, very difficult, primarily because people who are INTENSELY on my side are never as vocal as people who are casually against me.

I.e., people who clearly love me and are willing to share portions of their life with me are willing to go so far as to say "I think you do <X> pretty well." People whom I've never met are willing to go so far as to say "fucking kill yourself you fucking loser. Stop acting like you even know how to person, let alone <X>. Fuck it, I'm looking up your address; I'll kill you."

That churns up all sorts of emotional and social reactions, which makes processing the whole thing rationally even harder.

Comment author: satt 07 February 2014 01:16:22AM 0 points [-]

It's very, very difficult, primarily because people who are INTENSELY on my side are never as vocal as people who are casually against me.

I.e., people who clearly love me and are willing to share portions of their life with me are willing to go so far as to say "I think you do <X> pretty well." People whom I've never met are willing to go so far as to say "fucking kill yourself you fucking loser. Stop acting like you even know how to person, let alone <X>. Fuck it, I'm looking up your address; I'll kill you."

I might be an outlier, but a spiel like "fucking kill yourself you fucking loser. Stop acting like you even know how to person, let alone <X>. Fuck it, I'm looking up your address; I'll kill you" doesn't signal casualness to me. The only people I'd expect to say that casually are trolls trying to get a rise out of people. Idle trolling aside, someone laying down a fusillade of abuse like that is someone who cares quite a bit (and doubtless more than they'd like to admit) about my behaviour. Hardly an unbiased commentator! (I recognize that's easier said than internalized.)

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 04 February 2014 12:04:44AM 1 point [-]

What are the other person's qualifications?

Generally, their qualifications are that the audience is rallying around them. Also, they don't know me, which makes them less likely to be biased in my favor. (I.e., the old "my mom says I'm great at <X>, so shut up!" problem)

On the other hand, they might be more likely to be biased against you, and they certainly don't know a lot about your situation.

...the assurance that babies start out with that they get to care about their pain and pleasure.

This flies in the face of the political climate I exist within, that talks primarily about the gallish "entitlement" of poor people who believe they have the right to food and shelter and work.

Can you find a different political environment?

I've noticed that conservatives tend to think that everything bad that happens to a person is the fault of that person, and progressives tend to think that people generally don't have any responsibility for their misfortunes. Both are overdoing it, but you might need to spend some time with progressives for the sake of balance.

Also, I've found it helps to realize that malice is an easy way of getting attention, so there are incentives for people to show malice just to get attention-- and some of them are getting paid for it. The thing is, it's an emotional habit, not the voice of reality.

Unfortunately, people are really vulnerable to insults. I don't have an evo psy explanation, though I could probably whomp one up.

Do you have people who are on your side? If so, can you explore taking their opinion seriously?

It's very, very difficult, primarily because people who are INTENSELY on my side are never as vocal as people who are casually against me.

It is very difficult, but I think you've made some progress. All I can see is what you write, but it seems like you're getting some distance from your self-attacks in something like the past year or so.

I find it helps to think about times when I've been on my own side and haven't been struck by lightning.

Comment author: jaibot 01 February 2014 07:32:38AM 2 points [-]

Following up on http://lesswrong.com/lw/jij/open_thread_for_january_17_23_2014/af90 :

  • I've created a minimally (possibly sub-minimally) viable wiki page: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Study_Hall
  • I've started playing with SimpleWebRTC and its component parts
  • I am precommitting to another update by February 10th

This is a minimally-viable update on account of recent travel and imminent job interviews, but the precommitments seem to be succeeding in at least forcing something like progress and keeping some attention on the problem.

Comment author: David_Gerard 31 January 2014 09:30:26PM *  2 points [-]

I hadn't realised before that Max Tegmark's work was actually funded by a massive grant from the Templeton Foundation. $9 million to found FQXI.

The purpose of the Templeton Foundation is to spray around more money than most academics could dream of - $9 million for philosophy! - seeking to try to blur the lines between science and religion and corrupt the public discourse. The best interpretation that can reasonably be put on taking the Templeton shilling is that one is doing so cynically.

This is not pleasing news, not at all.

Comment author: Nornagest 31 January 2014 10:18:13PM *  1 point [-]

The purpose of the Templeton Foundation is [...] to try to blur the lines between science and religion and corrupt the public discourse.

What's your basis for this interpretation? And particularly the "corrupt the public discourse" bit? I read your link, and I remember it getting briefly badmouthed in The God Delusion, but I'd prefer something a little more solid to go on, since this seems to lie on the sharp side of Hanlon's razor.

Comment author: ahbwramc 31 January 2014 10:30:15PM 0 points [-]

Well, here's Sean Carroll's take on the matter. They don't seem like the worst organization in the world or anything, but I too was disappointed to hear about Max accepting their money.

Comment author: Nornagest 31 January 2014 11:08:02PM 1 point [-]

Thanks, that's the kind of thing I was looking for. I'd expect (boundedly) rational people to be able to disagree on the utility of promoting secularism, but Carroll's take on it does seem like a reasonable and un-Hanlony approach to the issue.

Comment author: David_Gerard 31 January 2014 10:40:52PM 0 points [-]

If I was offered $9m, I'd take it! Not that anyone's offering. But it's definitely a significant hit to his credibility.

Comment author: ahbwramc 31 January 2014 04:01:30AM 3 points [-]

Any book recommendations for a good intro to evolutionary psychology? I remember Eliezer suggested The Moral Animal, but I also vaguely remember some other people recommending against it. I'll probably just go with TMA unless some other book gets suggested multiple times.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 01 February 2014 12:05:31AM 1 point [-]

Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind, by David Buss is a pretty good, mainstream, and accessible introduction to the field. I don't regret reading it.

Comment author: beoShaffer 01 February 2014 06:18:33PM 1 point [-]

I second the recommendation. It was used as one of two textbooks for my evo-psyc class, and worked quite well.

Comment author: drethelin 31 January 2014 09:54:51PM 0 points [-]

I think "Evil" by Roy F Baumeister is a really good exploration that includes evo psych elements though is not primarily about evo psych.

Comment author: Stabilizer 31 January 2014 06:26:04AM 0 points [-]

This is not a book, but looks interesting.

Comment author: hyporational 31 January 2014 04:33:37AM *  3 points [-]

I found TMA was too full of just so stories. I also think it disturbingly rationalized a particular brand of sexism$ and overemphazised status which was very unexpected since I don't think I'm squeamish at all on those fronts. I don't think it helped me to predict human behavior better.

This said I'd be interested too if someone could recommend some other book.

$ rigid view of differences between the sexes, incompatible with my experience (which does suggest the sexes are different)

Comment author: Kevin92 30 January 2014 10:42:56PM 1 point [-]

Does anyone have a simple, easily understood definition of "logical fallacy" that can be used to explain the concept to people who have never heard of it before?

I was trying to explain the idea to a friend a few days ago but since I didn't have a definition I had to show her www.yourlogicalfallacyis.com. She understood the concept quickly, but it would be much more reliable and eloquent to actually define it.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 01 February 2014 06:15:49PM 0 points [-]

I don't think this is so simple to explain, because to really understand logical fallacies you need to understand what a proof is. Not a lot of people understand what a proof is.

Comment author: pragmatist 04 February 2014 08:06:59AM 0 points [-]

Could you explain why it is necessary to understand what a proof is in order to understand logical fallacies? Most commonly mentioned fallacies are informal. I'm not seeing how understanding the notion of proof is necessary (or even relevant) for understanding informal fallacies.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 01 February 2014 06:34:12PM 1 point [-]

On the other hand, I think people can acquire a pretty good ability to recognize fallacies without a formal understanding of what a good proof is.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 04 February 2014 03:05:05PM *  2 points [-]

I just feel there is a difference between a "fallacy enthusiast" (someone who knows lists of logical fallacies, can spot them, etc.) and a "mathematician" (who realizes a 'logical fallacy' is just 'not a tautology'), in terms of being able to "regenerate the understanding."

This is similar to how you can try to explain to lawyers how they should update their beliefs in particular cases as new evidence comes to light, but to really get them to understand, you have to show them a general method:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigmore_chart

(Yes, belief propagation was more or less invented in 1913 by a lawyer.)

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 31 January 2014 07:56:26PM 7 points [-]

She understood the concept quickly, but it would be much more reliable and eloquent to actually define it.

You think she would've understood the concept even more quickly if you had a definition? I think people underestimate the value of showing people examples as a way of communicating a concept (and overestimate the value of definitions).

Comment author: Kevin92 02 February 2014 06:59:46PM 0 points [-]

Well I know I won't be around a computer 24/7, and I'd like something to explain it if I'm out and about. Although I suppose I could use a couple examples that I can just memorize, like strawman arguments and ad hominum.

Comment author: pragmatist 31 January 2014 04:31:19AM *  0 points [-]

It's a bad concept, at least the way it's traditionally used in introductory philosophy classes. It encourages people to believe that certain patterns of argument are always wrong, even though there are many cases in which those patterns do constitute good (non-deductive) arguments. Instructors will often try to account for these cases by carving out exceptions ("argument from authority is OK if the authority is actually a recognized expert on the topic at hand"), but if you have to carve out loads of exceptions in order to get a concept to make sense, chances are you're using a crappy concept.

Ultimately, I can't find any unifying thread to "logical fallacy" other than "commonly seen bad argument", but even that isn't a very good definition because there are many commonly seen bad arguments that aren't usually considered logical fallacies (the base rate fallacy, for instance). Also, by coming up with cute names to label entire patterns of argument, and by failing to carve out enough exceptions, most expositions of "logical fallacy" end up labeling many good arguments as fallacious.

So I guess my advice would be to stop using the concept altogether, rather than trying to explicate it. If you encounter a particular instance of a "logical fallacy" that you think is a bad argument, explain why that particular argument doesn't work, rather than just saying "that's an argumentum ad populum" or something like that.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 31 January 2014 04:25:01AM 0 points [-]

A logical fallacy is an argument that doesn't hold together. All of its assumptions might be true, but the conclusion doesn't actually follow from them.

"Fallacy" is used to mean a few different things, though.

Formal fallacies happen when you try to prove something with a logical argument, but the structure of your argument is broken. For instance, "All weasels are furry; Spot is furry; therefore Spot is a weasel." Any argument of this "shape" will have the same problem — regardless of whether it's about weasels, politics, or Java programming.

Informal fallacies happen when you try to convince people of your conclusion through arguments that are irrelevant. A lot of informal fallacies try to argue that a statement is true because of something else — like its popularity, or the purported opinion of a smart person; or that its opponents are villains.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 31 January 2014 03:47:25AM 1 point [-]

To a "regular person", I might say something like "a logical fallacy is a form of reasoning that seems good to many humans, but actually isn't very good".

Comment author: fubarobfusco 30 January 2014 10:21:30PM 4 points [-]

A few years back, the Amanda Knox murder case was extensively discussed on LW.

Today, Amanda Knox has been convicted again.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 30 January 2014 07:46:48AM 3 points [-]

I don't understand why wireheading is almost universally considered worse than death, or at least really really negative.

Comment author: drethelin 31 January 2014 09:56:12PM 0 points [-]

Some people value "actual things" being achieved by entities and like Slackson implied a society of wireheads takes away resources and has opportunity costs.

Comment author: JQuinton 30 January 2014 06:00:15PM 1 point [-]

I think the big fear is stasis. In each case you're put in a certain state of being without any recourse to get out of it, but wireheading seems to be like a state of living death.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 31 January 2014 04:30:50PM 1 point [-]

I concur, but I think it wise to draw a distiction between wireheading as in an extreme example of a blissed out opiate haze, where one does nothing but feel content and so has no desire to acheve anything, and wireheading as in a state of strongly positive emotions where curisity, creativity etc remain intact. Yes, if a rat is given a choice it will keep on pressing the lever, but maybe a human would wedge the lever open and then go and continue with life as normal? To continue the drug analogy, some drugs leave people in a stupor, some make people socialable, some result in weird music. I would say the first type is certainly better then death, and the latter 'headonistic imperitive' wireheading sounds utopic.

Comment author: DefectiveAlgorithm 30 January 2014 04:44:55PM 1 point [-]

Speaking for myself, I consider wireheading to be very negative, but better than information-theoretic death, and better than a number of scenarios I can think of.

Comment author: Slackson 30 January 2014 08:38:18AM 3 points [-]

I would assume that it's considered worse than death by some because with death it's easier to ignore the opportunity cost. Wireheading makes that cost clearer, which also explains why it's considered negative compared to potential alternatives.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 30 January 2014 01:43:25AM 1 point [-]

Can anyone recommend a good replacement for flagfic.com ? This was a site that could download stories from various archives (fanfiction.net, fimfiction.net, etc) transform them to various e-reader formats, and email them to you. I used it to email fanfics I wanted to read directly to my Kindle as .mobi files.

Comment author: pengvado 30 January 2014 12:14:48PM 0 points [-]

fanficdownloader. I haven't tried the webapp version of it, but I'm happy with the CLI.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 07 February 2014 10:24:53PM *  0 points [-]

Many thanks for the suggestion! I've started trying it out, and though it doesn't seem to work perfectly for fimfiction.net (half the .mobi files I create from fanfics there get rejected for some reason when I email them to my kindle), it so far seems to work fine with fanfiction.net at least.

An excuse for me to learn Python so I can fix whatever it's doing wrong. :-)

EDIT: On second thought, fimfiction.net allows me to get html downloads of the stories, which I can then email to kindle anyway -- so as long as fanficdownloader works with fanfiction.net, I'm all set :-) Thanks again.

Comment author: VAuroch 30 January 2014 12:58:41AM 1 point [-]

http://www.edge.org/responses/what-scientific-idea-is-ready-for-retirement

Some of these ideas are very poorly thought out. Some are interesting.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 30 January 2014 12:22:53AM *  5 points [-]

Did someone here ask about the name of a fraud where the fraudster makes a number of true predictions for free, then says "no more predictions, I'm selling my system."? There's no system, instead the fraudster divided the potential victims into groups, and each group got different predictions. Eventually, a few people have the impression of an unbroken accurate series.

Anyway, the scam is called The Inverted Pyramid, and the place I'd seen it described was in the thoroughly charming "Adam Had Three Brothers. by R.A. Lafferty.

Edited to add: It turned out that someone had asked at Making Light.

Comment author: lukeprog 29 January 2014 08:06:31PM *  6 points [-]

People often ask why MIRI researchers think decision theory is relevant for AGI safety. I, too, often wonder myself whether it's as likely to be relevant as, say, program synthesis. But the basic argument for the relevance of decision theory was explained succinctly in Levitt (1999):

If robots are to put to more general uses, they will need to operate without human intervention, outdoors, on roads and in normal industrial and residential environments where unpredictable physical and visual events routinely occur. It will not be practical, or even safe, to halt robotic actions whenever the robot encounters an unexpected event or ambiguous visual interpretation.

Currently, commercial robots determine their actions mostly by control-theoretic feedback. Control-theoretic algorithms require the possibilities of what can happen in the world be represented in models embodied in software programs that allow the robot to pre-determine an appropriate action response to any task-relevant occurrence of visual events. When robots are used in open, uncontrolled environments, it will not be possible to provide the robot with a priori models of all the objects and dynamical events that might occur.

In order to decide what actions to take in response to un-modeled, unexpected or ambiguously interpreted events events in the world, robots will need to augment their processing beyond controlled feedback response, and engage in decision processes.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 January 2014 11:45:53AM 7 points [-]

A recent experience reminded me that basics are really important. On LW we talk a lot about advanced aspects of rationality.

If you would have to describe the basics, what would you say? What things are so obvious for you about rationality that they usually go without saying?

Comment author: edanm 01 February 2014 07:00:06AM 1 point [-]
  1. People can change (e.g. update on beliefs, self-improve).
  2. How to choose your actions - think about your goals, think what steps achieve them in the best way, act on those steps.
  3. There is such a thing as objective truth.

Amazing how the basic pillars of rationality are things other people so often don't agree with, even though they seem so dead obvious to me.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 31 January 2014 04:54:20PM 6 points [-]

You can frequently make your life better by paying attention to what you're doing, looking for possible improvements, trying your ideas, and observing whether the improvements happen.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 30 January 2014 10:07:15PM 3 points [-]

I run on hardware that was optimized by millions of years of evolution to do the sort of things my ancestors did tens of thousands of years ago, not the sort of things I do now.

Comment author: hyporational 30 January 2014 01:27:52AM *  1 point [-]

This is a fun exercise. The list could be a lot longer than I originally expected.

  • belief is about evidence
  • 0 and 1 are not probabilities
  • Occam's razor
  • strawman and steelman
  • privileging the hypothesis
  • tabooing
  • instrumental-terminal distinction of values
  • don't pull probabilities out of your posterior
  • introspection is often wrong
  • intuitions are often wrong
  • general concept of heuristics and biases
  • confirmation and disconfirmation bias
  • halo effect
  • knowing about biases doesn't unbias you
  • denotations and connotations
  • many more
Comment author: bramflakes 30 January 2014 03:32:33PM 2 points [-]

"not technically lying" is de facto lying

Comment author: hyporational 30 January 2014 04:10:49PM 0 points [-]

This might be useful for staying honest to yourself and perhaps your allies, but it's also useful to keep in mind that most people give different kinds of lies different degrees of moral weight.

Comment author: ChristianKl 30 January 2014 01:38:54PM 1 point [-]

Nice list, even a bit that's basic enough that I can put it into an Anki deck about teaching rationality (a long term project of mine but at the moment I doesn't have enough cards for release).

Comment author: Leonhart 29 January 2014 11:17:35PM *  5 points [-]

There is no magic.
I am not in a story.
Words are detachable handles.

Comment author: shminux 29 January 2014 11:25:34PM -1 points [-]

Brilliant.

Comment author: hyporational 29 January 2014 02:43:07PM *  0 points [-]

I'd like to hear about the experience if you're willing to share it. How basic are we talking about?

This older discussion thread seems to ask a similar question and some answers are relevant to your question. If you think your question phrased in a more specific way would elicit different kinds of responses, it might deserve its own thread.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 January 2014 07:15:53PM *  0 points [-]

I'd like to hear about the experience if you're willing to share it.

The experience wasn't about the domain of rationality but another subject and the relationships of concepts in that framework. If don't think it's useful for people without the experience of the framework.

How basic are we talking about?

As basic as you can get. What is the most basic thing you can say about rationality. If your reaction is: "Duh, I don't know nothing comes to mind", that's exactly why it might be worthwhile to investigate the issue.

Recently there was a discussion about vocabulary for rationality and someone made the point that things can be said either implicit or explicit. Implicitness and explicitness are pretty basic concepts.

Comment author: jkaufman 29 January 2014 03:10:35AM *  5 points [-]

Somewhere I saw the claim that in choosing sperm donors the biggest factor turns out to be how cute the baby pictures are, but at this point it's just a cached thought. Looking now I'm not able to substantiate it. Does anyone know where I might have seen this claim?

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 28 January 2014 07:45:10PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: lukeprog 28 January 2014 06:09:04PM 15 points [-]

Robin Hanson on Facebook:

Academic futurism has low status. This causes people interested in futurism to ignore those academics and instead listen to people who talk about futurism after gaining high status via focusing on other topics. As a result, the people who are listened to on the future tend to be amateurs, not specialists. And this is why "we" know a lot less about the future than we could.

Consider the case of Willard Wells and his Springer-published book Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (2009). From a UCSD news story about a talk Wells gave about the book:

Larry Carter, a UCSD emeritus professor of computer science, didn’t mince words. The first time he heard about Wells’s theories, he thought, “Oh my God, is this guy a crackpot?”

But persuaded by Well’s credentials, which include a PhD from Caltech in math and theoretical physics, a career that led him L-3 Photonics and the Caltech/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and an invention under his belt, Carter gave the ideas a chance. And was intrigued.

For a taste of the book, here is Wells' description of one specific risk:

When advanced robots arrive... the serious threat [will be] human hackers. They may deliberately breed a hostile strain of androids, which then infects normal ones with its virus. To do this, the hackers must obtain a genetic algorithm and pervert it, probably early in the robotic age before safeguards become sophisticated... Excluding hackers, it seems unlikely that androids will turn against us as they do in some movies... computer code for hostility is too complex... In the very long term, androids will become conscious for the same reasons humans did, whatever those reasons may be... In summary, the androids have powerful instincts to nurture humans, but these instincts will be unencumbered by concerns for human rights. Androids will feel free to impose a harsh discipline that saves us from ourselves while violating many of our so-called human rights.

Now, despite Larry Carter's being "persuaded by Wells' credentials" — which might have been exaggerated or made-up by the journalist, I don't know — I suspect very few people have taken Wells seriously, for good reason. He's clearly just making stuff up, with almost no study of the issue whatsoever. (On this topic, the only people he cites are Joy, Kurzweil, and Posner, despite the book being published in 2009.)

But reading that passage did drive home again what it must be like for most people to read FHI or MIRI on AI risk, or Robin Hanson on ems. They probably can't tell the difference between someone who is making stuff up and an argument that has gone through a gauntlet of 15 years of heated debate and both theoretical and empirical research.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 January 2014 11:21:21PM 1 point [-]

Academic futurism has low status. This causes people interested in futurism to ignore those academics and instead listen to people who talk about futurism after gaining high status via focusing on other topics. As a result, the people who are listened to on the future tend to be amateurs, not specialists. And this is why "we" know a lot less about the future than we could.

I don't think that's the case. Most people who are listened to on the future don't tend to speak to an audience primarily consisting of futurists.

There are think tanks who employee people to think about the future and those think tanks tend generally to be quite good at influencing the public debate.

I also don't think that academic has any special claim to be specialists about the future. When I think about specialists on futurism names like Stewart Brand or Bruce Sterling.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 29 January 2014 12:58:28PM *  1 point [-]

I don't think that's the case. Most people who are listened to on the future don't tend to speak to an audience primarily consisting of futurists.

This is a very important and general point. While it is important to communicate ideas to a general audience, generally excessive communication to general audiences at the expense of communication to peers should be "bad news" when it comes to evaluating experts. Folks like Witten mostly just get work done, they don't write popular science books.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 January 2014 01:53:31PM 0 points [-]

Witten doesn't ring a bell with me. Googling the name might mean Edward Witten and Tarynn Madysyn Witten. Do you mean either or them or someone else?

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 29 January 2014 01:55:15PM 3 points [-]

I mean Edward Witten, one of the most prominent physicists alive. The fact that his name does not ring a bell is precisely my point. The names that do ring a bell are the names of folks who are "good at the media," not necessarily folks who are the best in their field.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 January 2014 02:09:00PM 0 points [-]

Okay, given that the subject is theoretical physics and I'm not much into that field I understand why I have no recognition.

When looking at his Wikipedia I see he made Time 100 so it still might be worth knowing the name.

Comment author: Ander 30 January 2014 11:14:37PM 1 point [-]

Witten is one of the greatest physicists alive, if not the greatest. He is the one who unified the various string theories into M-theory. He is also the only physicist to receive a Fields Medal.

Comment author: Kawoomba 28 January 2014 09:50:00PM 1 point [-]

It might be a worthwhile endeavor to modify our wiki such that it serves not only as a mostly local reference on current terms and jargon, but also as an independent guide to the various arguments for and against various concepts, where applicable. It could create a lot of credibility and exposure to establish a sort of neutral reference guide / an argument map / the history and iterations an idea has gone through, in a neutral voice. Ideally, neutrality regarding PoV works in favor of those with the balance of arguments in their favor.

This need not be entirely new material, but instead simply a few mandatory / recommended headers in each wiki entry, pertaining to history, counterarguments etc. Could be worth it lifting the wiki from relative obscurity, with a new landing page, and marketed potentially as a reference guide for journalists researching current topics. Kruel's LW interview with Shane Legg got linked to in a NYTimes blog, why not a suitable LW wiki article, too?

Comment author: VincentYu 28 January 2014 09:25:33PM *  3 points [-]

Wells's book: Apocalypse when.

I took a quick skim through the book. Your focused criticism of Wells's book is somewhat unfair. The majority of the book (ch. 1–4) is about a survival analysis of doomsday risks. The scenario you quoted is in the last chapter (ch. 5), which looks like an afterthought to the main intent of the book (i.e., providing the survival analysis), and is prepended by the following disclaimer:

This set serves as a foil to the balanced discussions by Rees, Leslie, Powell, and others. The choice of eight examples is purely arbitrary. Their purpose is not orderly coverage but merely examples that indicate a range of possibilities. The actual number of such complex unorthodox scenarios is virtually infinite, hence the high risk.

I think it is fair to criticize the crackpot scenario that he gave as an example, but your criticism seems to suggest that his entire book is of the same crackpot nature, which it is not. It is unfortunate that PR articles and public attention focuses on the insubstantial parts of the book, but I am sure you know what that is like as the same occurs frequently to MIRI/SIAI's ideas.

Orthogonal notes on the book's content: Wells seems unaware of Bostrom's work on observation selection effects, and it appears that he implicitly uses SSA. (I have not carefully read enough of his book to form an opinion on his analysis, nor do I currently know enough about survival analysis to know whether what he does is standard.)

Comment author: lukeprog 28 January 2014 09:28:16PM *  1 point [-]

Ah, you're right that I should have quoted the "This set serves as a foil" paragraph as well.

I found chs. 1-4 pretty unconvincing, too, though I'm still glad that analysis exists.

Comment author: James_Miller 28 January 2014 08:02:59PM 2 points [-]

Yes, I'm an academic and I get a similar reaction from telling people I study the Singularity as when I say I've signed up for cryonics. Thankfully, I have tenure.

Comment author: Randy_M 29 January 2014 08:35:49PM 0 points [-]

Do you actually say you "study the singularity" or give a more in depth explanation? I ask because the word study is usually used only in reference to things that do or have exisited, rather than to speculative future events.

Comment author: James_Miller 29 January 2014 09:18:30PM 0 points [-]

I go into more depth, especially when I (unsuccessfully) came up for promotion for full professor.

Comment author: Halfwitz 29 January 2014 01:32:38AM 1 point [-]

What happens when you say, "I study the economic implications of advanced artificial inteligence," to people?

Comment author: James_Miller 29 January 2014 04:52:11AM 0 points [-]

I don't phrase it this way.

Comment author: RobinHanson 28 January 2014 07:32:47PM 5 points [-]

Yes by judging someone on their credentials in other fields, you can't tell if they are just making stuff up on this subject vs. studied it for 15 years.

Comment author: palladias 28 January 2014 04:50:03AM 11 points [-]

Reason #k Why I <3 Pomodoros:

They really help me get over akrasia. I beemind how many pomodoros I do per week, so I do tasks I would otherwise procrastinate if I can do 20 minutes of them (yes, I do short pomodoros) and get to enter a data point at the end. Often I find that the task is much shorter/less awful than it felt in the abstract.

Example: I just moved today, and didn't have that much to unpack, but decided I'd do it tomorrow, because I felt tired and it would presumably be long and unpleasant. But then I realized I could get a pomodoro out of it (plus permission from myself to stop after 20 min and go to bed). Turns out it took 11 minutes and now I'm all set up!

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 28 January 2014 04:51:34AM 2 points [-]

I do this all the time and it's great!

Comment author: D_Malik 28 January 2014 04:32:22AM *  5 points [-]

John_Maxwell_IV and I were recently wondering about whether it's a good idea to try to drink more water. At the moment my practice is "drink water ad libitum, and don't make too much of an effort to always have water at hand". But I could easily switch to "drink ad libitum, and always have a bottle of water at hand". Many people I know follow the second rule, and this definitely seems like something that's worth researching more because it literally affects every single day of your life. Here are the results of 3 minutes of googling:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002822399000486:

Dehydration of as little as 1% decrease in body weight results in impaired physiological and performance responses (4), (5) and (6), and is discussed in more detail below. It affects a wide range of cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses (7), (8), (9), (10), (11), (12), (13) and (14).

The Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys indicate that a portion of the population may be chronically mildly dehydrated. Several factors may increase the likelihood of chronic, mild dehydration, including a poor thirst mechanism, dissatisfaction with the taste of water, common consumption of the natural diuretics caffeine and alcohol, participation in exercise, and environmental conditions. Dehydration of as little as 2% loss of body weight results in impaired physiological and performance responses. New research indicates that fluid consumption in general and water consumption in particular can have an effect on the risk of urinary stone disease; cancers of the breast, colon, and urinary tract; childhood and adolescent obesity; mitral valve prolapse; salivary gland function; and overall health in the elderly. Dietitians should be encouraged to promote and monitor fluid and water intake among all of their clients and patients through education and to help them design a fluid intake plan.

The effect of dehydration on mental performance has not been adequately studied, but it seems likely that as physical performance is impaired with hypohydration, mental performance is impaired as well (62) and (63). Gopinathan et al (29) studied variation in mental performance under different levels of heat stress-induced dehydration in acclimatized subjects. After recovery from exercise in the heat, subjects demonstrated significant and progressive reductions in the performance of arithmetic ability, short-term memory, and visuomotor tracking at 2% or more body fluid deficit compared with the euhydrated state.

So how much is 2% dehydration? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dehydration#Differential_diagnosis : "A person's body, during an average day in a temperate climate such as the United Kingdom, loses approximately 2.5 litres of water.[citation needed]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_water quotes Arthur Guyton 's Textbook of Medical Physiology: "the total amount of water in a man of average weight (70 kilograms) is approximately 40 litres, averaging 57 percent of his total body weight." So effects on cognition become apparent after 40l*2%=800ml of water has been lost, which takes roughly 800ml/(2.5l/24h) = 8 hours. Now, this assumes water is lost at a constant rate, which is false, but it still seems like it would take a while to lose a full 800ml. Which implies that you don't have to make a conscious effort to drink more water because everybody gets at least mildly thirsty after, say, half an hour of walking around outside on a warm day, which seems like it would be a lot less than 800ml.

http://freebeacon.com/michelle-obamas-drink-more-water-campaign-based-on-faulty-science/ : “There really isn’t data to support this,” said Dr. Stanley Goldfarb of the University of Pennsylvania. “I think, unfortunately, frankly, they’re not basing this on really hard science. It’s not a very scientific approach they’ve taken. … To make it a major public health effort, I think I would say it’s bizarre.” Goldfarb, a kidney specialist, took particular issue with White House claims that drinking more water would boost energy. ”The idea drinking water increases energy, the word I’ve used to describe it is: quixotic,” he said. “We’re designed to drink when we’re thirsty. … There’s no need to have more than that.”

http://ask.metafilter.com/166600/Drinking-more-water-should-make-me-less-thirsty-right : When you don't drink a lot of water your body retains liquid because it knows it's not being hydrated. It will conserve and reabsorb liquid. When you start drinking enough water to stay more than hydrated your body will start using the water and then dispensing of it as needed. Your acuity for thirst will be activated in a different way and in a sense work better.

Some thoughts:

  • More frequent water-drinking makes you urinate more often, which is probably a bad thing for productivity.
  • There might be negative effects with chronic mild dehydration at levels less severe than in the studies above.
  • There might also be hormetic effects. (As in, your body functions best under frequent mild dehydration because that's what happened in the EEA, and always giving it as much water as it wants will be bad.)

Thoughts? Please post your own opinion if you're knowledgeable about this or if you've researched it.

Comment author: hyporational 29 January 2014 03:15:33PM *  2 points [-]

While you're at it, you probably should also research how much water is too much, because on the other side of the spectrum lies hyponatremia and having suboptimal electrolyte levels from overdosing water could be harmful to your cognition too, although I think it's unlikely anyone here will develop a measurable hyponatremia just from drinking too much water. Sweating a lot for example might change the situation.

this definitely seems like something that's worth researching more because it literally affects every single day of your life

This doesn't look like a selective enough heuristic alone.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 January 2014 10:51:46PM 1 point [-]

As far as water consumption goes I feel the difference between drinking one liter or four liter per day. I just feel much better with four liter.

There were times two years ago when unless I had drunk 4 liter by the time I entered my Salsa dancing location in the evening, my muscle coordination was worse and the dancing didn't flow well.

Does that mean that everyone has to drink 4 liters to be at his optimum? No, it doesn't. Get a feel how different amounts of water consumption effect you. For me the effect was clear to see without even needing to do QS. Even it's not as clear for you do QS.

Comment author: ephion 28 January 2014 04:38:16PM 5 points [-]

More frequent water-drinking makes you urinate more often, which is probably a bad thing for productivity.

Extended sedentary periods are bad for you, so if drinking extra water also makes you get up and walk to the bathroom, that's a win-win.

Comment author: hyporational 29 January 2014 06:37:31PM 2 points [-]

Except when you're trying to sleep.

Comment author: [deleted] 28 January 2014 04:24:33PM 0 points [-]

Anecdotally, I feel less lazy when I drink lots of water, but for all I know it might well be placebo.

Comment author: Gurkenglas 29 January 2014 11:52:47AM 2 points [-]

We should do a placebo study on the effects of drinking water.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 28 January 2014 04:47:33AM 1 point [-]

Thanks for writing this up.

this definitely seems like something that's worth researching more because it literally affects every single day of your life

Lots of things fall in to this category :)

"A person's body, during an average day in a temperate climate such as the United Kingdom, loses approximately 2.5 litres of water.[citation needed]"

In case it's not obvious: this probably means in the absence of food/fluid consumption. You can't go on losing 2.5 litres of water a day indefinitely.

Comment author: Randy_M 28 January 2014 06:22:19PM 0 points [-]

I assumed it wasn't net, but the amount of water excreted, regardless of consumption. Though those probably are not unrelated processes.

Comment author: adamzerner 28 January 2014 03:12:28AM 2 points [-]

I'm recalling a Less Wrong post about how rationality only leads to winning if you "have enough of it". Like if you're "90% rational", you'll often "lose" to someone who's only "10% rational". I can't find it. Does anyone know what I'm talking about, and if so can you link to it?

Comment author: ahbwramc 28 January 2014 03:48:39PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: adamzerner 28 January 2014 04:32:48PM 0 points [-]

I'm like 60% sure that its not that article I had in mind, but the idea is the same (incremental increases in rationality don't necessarily lead to incremental increases in winning), so I feel pretty satisfied regardless. Thanks!

Comment author: ygert 28 January 2014 10:34:22PM *  0 points [-]

Could the article you had in mind be this?

In any case, Eliezer has touched on this point multiple times in the sequences, often as a side note in posts on other topics. (See for example in Why Our Kind Can't Cooperate.) It's an important point, regardless.

Comment author: adamzerner 28 January 2014 11:28:01PM *  0 points [-]

No, that wasn't it. I don't think it was by Eliezer. And I think it was a featured or promoted article in Main.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 27 January 2014 07:15:00PM *  5 points [-]

A year ago, I was asked to follow up on my post about the January 2013 CFAR workshop in a year. The time to write that post is fast approaching. Are there any issues / questions that people would be particularly interested in seeing this post address / answer?

Comment author: pewpewlasergun 01 February 2014 12:20:50AM 1 point [-]

I'd like to know how many techniques you were taught at the meetup you still use regularly. Also which has had the largest effect on your life.

Comment author: pan 27 January 2014 06:33:04PM 5 points [-]

Is there a reasonably well researched list of behaviors that correlate positively with lifespan? I'm interested in seeing if there are any low hanging fruit I'm missing.

I found this previously posted, and a series of posts by gwern, but was wondering if there is anything else?

A quick google will give you a lot of lists but most of them are from news sources that I don't trust.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 29 January 2014 08:28:57AM 3 points [-]

Romeo Stevens made this comprehensive doc.

Comment author: pan 29 January 2014 02:30:42PM 0 points [-]

This is really great, do you know if the sources are compiled anywhere?

Comment author: Vladimir_Golovin 28 January 2014 08:41:22AM *  1 point [-]

Eating a handful of nuts a day.

"Scientists from Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and the Harvard School of Public Health came to this conclusion after analyzing data on nearly 120,000 people collected over 30 years."

"The most obvious benefit was a reduction of 29 percent in deaths from heart disease - the major killer of people in America. But we also saw a significant reduction - 11% - in the risk of dying from cancer."

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/269206.php

Comment author: RichardKennaway 28 January 2014 01:46:18PM 1 point [-]

But:

The researchers point out that the study was not designed to examine cause and effect and so cannot conclude that eating more nuts causes people to live longer.

Indeed, the study consists only of observational data, not interventional, so what causal conclusions could be drawn from it?

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 31 January 2014 06:35:48AM 1 point [-]

You act like people never did a valid causal analysis of the data in the Nurses' health study.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 31 January 2014 08:04:20AM 0 points [-]

I know I overstated things. There are such things as natural experiments, having some causal information already, etc.

I'm not familiar with the Nurses' health study, and a quick google only turns up its conclusions. What methods did they use?

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 31 January 2014 08:21:34AM *  1 point [-]

Sorry, there are two separate issues: the data itself (which is a big dataset where they following a big set of nurses for many years, and recorded lots of things about them), and how the data could be used to maybe get causal conclusions.

Plenty of folks at Harvard (e.g. Miguel Hernan, Jamie Robins) used this data in a sensible way to account for confounding (naturally their results are relatively low on the 'hierarchy of evidence', but still!) Trying to draw causal conclusions from observational data is 95% of modern causal inference!

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 27 January 2014 07:18:08PM *  3 points [-]

I found this list of causes of death by age and gender enlightening (it doesn't necessarily tell you that a particular action will increase your lifespan, but then again neither do correlations). For example, I was surprised by how often people around my age or a bit older die of suicide and "poisoning" (not sure exactly what this covers but I think it covers stuff like alcohol poisoning and accidentally overdosing on medicine?).

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 06:45:04PM *  1 point [-]

Is there a reasonably well researched list of behaviors that correlate positively with lifespan?

Depends on what you'd call "well-researched" but, unfortunately, most of it is fuzzy platitudes. For example:

  • Do physical exercise. But not too much.
  • Be happy, avoid stress.
  • Get happily married.
  • Don't get obese.

and most importantly

  • Choose your parents well, their genes matter :-P
Comment author: RationalityVienna 27 January 2014 01:58:40PM 12 points [-]

Hello, we are organizing monthly rationality meetups in Vienna - we have previously used the account of one of our members (ratcourse) but would like to switch to this account (rationalityvienna). Please upvote this account for creating rationality vienna meetups.

Comment author: gedymin 27 January 2014 01:23:58PM *  2 points [-]

I'm quite new to LW, and find myself wondering whether Hidden Markov models (HMM) are underappreciated as a formal reasoning tool in the rationalist community, especially compared to Bayesian networks?

Perhaps it's because HMM seem to be more difficult to grasp?

Or it's because formally HMM are just a special case of Bayesian networks (i.e. dynamic Bayes nets)? Still, HMM are widely used in science on their own.

For comparison, Google search "bayes OR bayesian network OR net" site:lesswrong.com gives 1,090 results.

Google search hidden markov model site:lesswrong.com gives 91 results.

Comment author: moridinamael 28 January 2014 03:04:32PM 0 points [-]

Out of curiosity, did you happen to read Kurzweil's recent book on HHMMs?

I think the safest answer is that a HMM is just a specific way of mathematically writing down an updating Bayesian network.

Comment author: gedymin 28 January 2014 08:14:57PM 0 points [-]

No, never heard of it. I'm not an Utopian, and from what I know about Kurzweil's ideas and arguments, they don't seem to be sound enough.

Comment author: moridinamael 29 January 2014 02:50:34PM 2 points [-]

Well, Kurzweil is an extremely accomplished inventor aside from being a pie-in-the-sky futurist, so when he says something about a particular algorithm working well, I assume he knows what he's talking about. He seems to think hidden hierarchical Markov models are the best way to represent the hierarchical nature of abstract thought.

I'm not saying he's correct, just saying, it seems to be a popular idea.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 10:52:30PM 1 point [-]

Hidden Markov models are a reasoning model to solve a specific problem. If you don't face that specific problem they are no use.

Most of the problems we discuss aren't modeled well with HMMs.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 27 January 2014 07:21:49PM *  0 points [-]

There's a proliferation of terminology in this area; I think a lot of these are in some sense equivalent and/or special cases of each other. I guess "Bayesian network" is more consistent with the other Bayes-based vocabulary around here.

Comment author: MathiasZaman 27 January 2014 12:50:42PM 2 points [-]

Is there a good way of finding what kind of job might fit a person? Common advice such as "do what you like to do" or "do what you're good at" is relatively useless for finding a specific job or even a broader category of jobs.

I've did some reading on 80000 hours, and most of the advice there is on how to choose between a couple of possible jobs, not on finding a fitting one from scratch.

Comment author: memoridem 28 January 2014 02:46:30AM *  2 points [-]

I think for most people who ask this question, the range of fitting jobs is much wider than they think. You learn to like what you become good at.

If I were to pick a career right now, I'd just take a long list of reasonably complex jobs and remove any that contain an obvious obstacle like a skill requirement I'm unlikely to improve at. Then from what is left, I'd narrow the choice by some other criteria than perceived fit, income and future employment prospects for example and then pick one of them either by some additional criteria or randomly. I'm confident I'd learn to like almost any job chosen this way.

If you make money you can do whatever you like in the future even if you chose your job poorly in the first place. So please don't choose to become an English major.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 10:58:39PM 2 points [-]

Is there a good way of finding what kind of job might fit a person?

That's a strange question.

Either you want to know how to pick up the skill of being a career adviser. Alternatively you want to find a job for yourself. You might also be a parent who tries to find a job that fits his child instead of letting the child decide for themselves.

I think the answers to those three possibilities are very different.

Comment author: MathiasZaman 28 January 2014 05:56:41PM 0 points [-]

Alternatively you want to find a job for yourself.

It's this option, although the general skill of being a career advisor also sounds appealing in the abstract.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 27 January 2014 09:51:44AM 4 points [-]

Daniel Dennett quote to share, on an argument in Sam Harris' book Free Will;

... he has taken on a straw man, and the straw man is beating him

From: http://www.samharris.org/blog/item/reflections-on-free-will#sthash.5OqzuVcX.dpuf

Just thought that was pretty damn funny.

Comment author: DanielLC 04 February 2014 06:39:53AM 0 points [-]

That's known as Strawman Has A Point (Warning: TVTropes).

Comment author: Alejandro1 28 January 2014 09:01:04PM *  0 points [-]

Thanks for the link, that was an excellent exposition and defense of compatibilism. Here is one particularly strong paragraph:

If we are interested in whether somebody has free will, it is some kind of ability that we want to assess, and you can’t assess any ability by “replaying the tape.”… This is as true of the abilities of automobiles as of people. Suppose I am driving along at 60 MPH and am asked if my car can also go 80 MPH. Yes, I reply, but not in precisely the same conditions; I have to press harder on the accelerator. In fact, I add, it can also go 40 MPH, but not with conditions precisely as they are. Replay the tape till eternity, and it will never go 40MPH in just these conditions. So if you want to know whether some rapist/murderer was “free not to rape and murder,” don’t distract yourself with fantasies about determinism and rewinding the tape; rely on the sorts of observations and tests that everyday folk use to confirm and disconfirm their verdicts about who could have done otherwise and who couldn’t.

Comment author: lmm 30 January 2014 12:38:33PM 0 points [-]

rely on the sorts of observations and tests that everyday folk use to confirm and disconfirm their verdicts about who could have done otherwise and who couldn’t.

Isn't that begging the question?

Comment author: Alejandro1 30 January 2014 03:30:33PM 1 point [-]

It is common for incompatibilists to say that their conception of free will (as requiring the ability to do otherwise in exactly the same conditions) matches everybody's intuitions and that compatibilism is a philosopher's trick based on changing the definition. Dennett is arguing that, contrary to this, what actual people in actual circumstances do when they want to know if someone was "free to do otherwise" is never to think about global determinism; rather, as compatibilism requires, they think about whether that person (or relevantly similar people) actually does/do different when placed under very similar (but not precisely identical) conditions.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 15 February 2014 09:17:13PM 0 points [-]

they think about whether that person (or relevantly similar people) actually does/do different when placed under very similar (but not precisely identical) conditions.

I think the key is consideration people "in similar, but not exactly identical, circumstance". It's how the person compares to hypothetical others. Free will is a concept used to sort people for blame based on intention.

Comment author: moridinamael 27 January 2014 03:02:25AM 5 points [-]

Has anyone had experiences with virtual assistants? I've been aware of the concept for many years but always been wary of what I perceive to be the risks involved in letting a fundamentally unknown party read my email.

I'd like to hear about any positive or negative experiences.

One problem with searching for information about the trustworthiness of entities like these is that one suspects any positive reports one finds via Googling to be astroturfing, and if one finds negative reports, well, negatives are always over-reported in consumer services. That's why I'm asking here.

Comment author: adamzerner 28 January 2014 03:15:01AM *  0 points [-]

I don't, but in Tim Ferris' book Four-Hour Work Week, I think I recall him recommending them. I think this was the one he recommended: https://www.yourmaninindia.com/.

Let me know if you come across some good findings on this. If effective, virtual assistants could be very useful, and thus they're something I'm interested in. On that note, it'd probably be worth writing a post about them.

Comment author: TylerJay 27 January 2014 02:06:19AM 5 points [-]

The MIRI course list bashes on "higher and higher forms of calculus" as not being useful for their purposes and calculus is not on the list at all. However, I know that at least some kind of calculus is needed for things like probability theory.

So imagine a person wanted to work their way through the whole MIRI course list and deeply understand each topic. How much calculus is needed for that?

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 27 January 2014 07:25:49PM *  7 points [-]

Not much. The kind of probability relevant to MIRI's interests is not the kind of probability you need calculus to understand (the random variables are usually discrete, etc.). The closest thing to needing a calculus background is maybe numerical analysis (I suspect it would be helpful to at least have the intuition that derivatives measure the sensitivity of a function to changes in its input), but even then I think that's more algorithms. Not an expert on numerical analysis by any means, though.

If you have a general interest in mathematics, I still recommend that you learn some calculus because it's an important foundation for other parts of mathematics and because people, when explaining things to you, will often assume that you know calculus after a certain point and use that as a jumping-off point.

Comment author: TylerJay 27 January 2014 08:02:19PM 1 point [-]

Thanks. I took single variable calculus, differential equations, and linear algebra in college, but its been four years since then and I haven't really used any of it since (and I think I really only learned it in context, not deeply). I've just been trying to figure out how much of my math foundations i'm going to need to re-learn.

This was helpful.

Comment author: MarkL 27 January 2014 01:05:45AM 6 points [-]

My meditation blog from a (somewhat) rationalist perspective is now past 40 posts:

http://meditationstuff.wordpress.com/

Comment author: moridinamael 28 January 2014 03:07:29PM 1 point [-]

Do you have any material for dealing with chronic pain? Or material that could conceivably be leveraged to apply to chronic pain management?

Comment author: gwern 27 January 2014 01:02:36AM *  16 points [-]

Some names familiar to LWers seem to have just made their fortunes (again, in some cases); http://recode.net/2014/01/26/exclusive-google-to-buy-artificial-intelligence-startup-deepmind-for-400m/ (via HN)

Google is shelling out $400 million to buy a secretive artificial intelligence company called DeepMind....Based in London, DeepMind was founded by games prodigy and neuroscientist Demis Hassabis, Skype & Kazaa developer Jaan Tallin and researcher Shane Legg.

I liked Legg's blog & papers and was sad when he basically stopped in the interests of working on his company, but one can hardly argue with the results.

EDIT: bigger discussion at http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jks/google_may_be_trying_to_take_over_the_world/#comments - new aspects: $500m, not $400m; DeepMind proposes an ethics board

Comment author: PECOS-9 27 January 2014 12:22:39AM *  13 points [-]

PSA: You can download from scribd without paying, you just need to upload a file first (apparently any file -- it can be a garbage pdf or even a pdf that's already on scribd). They say this at the very bottom of their pricing page, but I didn't notice until just now.

Comment author: amacfie 27 January 2014 12:18:42AM 2 points [-]

Is being "sexy" basically signaling promiscuity plus signaling being a fun intercourse partner?

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 12:12:54PM 2 points [-]

Sexy is a quite broad word that probably used by different people in different ways. I think for most people it about what they feel when looking at the person. Those feeling where set up by evolution over large time frames.

Evolution doesn't really care about whether you get a fun intercourse partner.

But it's not only evolution. It also has a lot to do with culture. Culture also doesn't care about whether you get a fun intercourse partner. People who watch a lot of TV get taught that certain characteristics are sexy.

For myself I would guess that most of my cultural imprint regarding what I find sexy comes from dancing interactions. If a woman moves in a way that suggests that she doesn't dance well, that will reduce her sex appeal to me more than it probably does with the average male.

Comment author: Torello 27 January 2014 01:41:31AM 1 point [-]

Being sexy signals health, youth, and fertility. This is quite well supported by evidence and discussed in many books and articles.

I would agree with what Lumifer says below, but I think sexy can be signalling when many people are involved: look at the sexy people I hang out with. Being with sexy people brings high status because it's high status.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 11:33:19AM 1 point [-]

Being sexy signals health, youth, and fertility. This is quite well supported by evidence and discussed in many books and articles.

I think you confuse the label "sexy" with the label "attractive". As far as my reading goes few articles use the term sexy.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 01:12:33AM 2 points [-]

"Sexy" isn't signaling -- it's a characteristic that people (usually) try to signal, more or less successfully. "I'm sexy" basically means "You want me" : note the difference in subjects :-)

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 12:11:08PM 1 point [-]

If a man succeeds in signaling a high sexuality to a women, the woman might still treat him as a creep. Especially if there no established trust, signal really high amounts of sexuality doesn't result in "You want me".

In my own interactions with professional dancers there are plenty of situations where the woman succeeds in signaling a high amount of sexyness. I however know that I"m dancing with a professional dancer who going to sent that signal to a lot of guys so she doesn't enter my mental category of potential mates.

I think people frequently go wrong when the confuse impression of characteristics with goals.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 03:43:11PM 2 points [-]

If a man succeeds in signaling a high sexuality to a women, the woman might still treat him as a creep.

In which case he failed to signal "sexy" and (a common failure mode) signaled "creepy" instead.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 04:06:51PM 1 point [-]

It depends on how you define the term.

For a reasonable definition of sexy, the term refers to letting a woman feel sexual tension. If you talk about social interactions it's useful to have a word that refers to making another person feel sexual tension.

Of course you can define beautiful, attractive and sexy all the same way. Then you get a one dimensional model where Bob wants Alice with utility rating X. I don't think that's model is very useful to understanding how humans behave in mating situations.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 04:14:57PM 1 point [-]

It depends on how you define the term.

I define it as "arousing sexual interest and desire in people of appropriate gender and culture". Note that this is quite different from "beautiful" and is a narrow subset of "attractive".

the term refers to letting a woman feel sexual tension.

"Tension" generally implies conflict or some sort of a counterforce.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 10:36:13PM *  -1 points [-]

"Tension" generally implies conflict or some sort of a counterforce.

Testosterone which is commonly associated with sexiness in males is about dominance. It has something to do with power that does create tension.

Of course a woman can decide to have sex with shy a guy because he's nice and she thinks that he's intelligent or otherwise a good match. Given that there are shy guys who do have sex that's certainly happening in reality.

Does that mean that the behavior of that guy deserves the label "sexy"? I don't think he's commonly given that label.

There also words like sensual and empathic. A guy can get layed by being very empathic and just making woman that feel really great by interacting with him in a sensual way. I think it's useful to separate that mentally from the kind of behavior that comes from testosterone that commonly get's called sexy.

If you read an exciting thriller you are also feeling tension even when you aren't in conflict with the book or there some counterforce. Building up tension and then releasing it is a way for human to feel pleasure.

Comment author: amacfie 27 January 2014 01:58:49AM 1 point [-]

Ok, I may have been too vague. I was thinking of the exhibition of sexy behavior, e.g. clothes, dancing/gestures, sex-related language.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 02:12:57AM *  1 point [-]

Pretty much the same thing. Regardless of an, um, widespread misunderstanding :-D sexy behavior does NOT signal either promiscuity or sexual availability. It signals "I want you to desire me" and being desired is a generally advantageous position to be in.

Comment author: palladias 26 January 2014 10:23:31PM 3 points [-]

Has anyone paired Beeminder and Project Euler? I'd like to be able to set a goal of doing x problems per week and have it automatically update, instead of me entering the data in manually. Has anyone cobbled together a way to do it, which I could piggyback off of?

Comment author: bramflakes 26 January 2014 05:09:55PM *  17 points [-]

I'm going to do the unthinkable: start memorizing mathematical results instead of deriving them.

Okay, unthinkable is hyperbole. But I've noticed a tendency within myself to regard rote memorization of things to be unbecoming of a student of mathematics and physics. An example: I was recently going through a set of practice problems for a university entrance exam, and calculators were forbidden. One of the questions required a lot of trig, and half the time I spent solving the problem was just me trying to remember or re-derive simple things like the arcsin of 0.5 and so on. I knew how to do it, but since I only have a limited amount of working memory, actually doing it was very inefficient because it led to a lot of backtracking and fumbling. In the same sense, I know how to derive all of my multiplication tables, but doing it every time I need to multiply two numbers together is obviously wrong. I don't know how widespread this is, but at least in my school, memorization was something that was left to the lower-status, less able people who couldn't grasp why certain results were true. I had gone along with this idea without thinking about it critically.

So these are the things I'm going to add to my anki decks, with the obligatory rule that I'm only allowed to memorize results if I could theoretically re-derive them (or if the know-how needed to derive them is far beyond my current ability). These will include common trig results, derivatives and integrals of all basic functions, most physical formulae relating heat, motion, pressure and so on. I predict that the reduction in mental effort required on basic operations will rapidly compound to allow for much greater fluency with harder problems, though I can't think of a way to measure this. Also, recommendations for other things to memorize are welcome.

Also, relevant

Comment author: ChristianKl 26 January 2014 11:04:45PM 2 points [-]

In general there the core principle of spaced repetition that you don't put something into the system that you don't already understand.

When trying to memorize mathematical results make sure that you only add cards when you really have a mental understanding. Using Anki to avoid forgetting basic operations is great. If you however add a bunch of information that's complex, you will forget it and waste a lot of time.

Comment author: whales 26 January 2014 11:56:19PM *  4 points [-]

That's true if you're just using spaced repetition to memorize, although I'd add that it's still often helpful to overlearn definitions and simple results just past the boundaries of your understanding, along the lines of Prof. Ravi Vakil's advice for potential students:

Here's a phenomenon I was surprised to find: you'll go to talks, and hear various words, whose definitions you're not so sure about. At some point you'll be able to make a sentence using those words; you won't know what the words mean, but you'll know the sentence is correct. You'll also be able to ask a question using those words. You still won't know what the words mean, but you'll know the question is interesting, and you'll want to know the answer. Then later on, you'll learn what the words mean more precisely, and your sense of how they fit together will make that learning much easier. The reason for this phenomenon is that mathematics is so rich and infinite that it is impossible to learn it systematically, and if you wait to master one topic before moving on to the next, you'll never get anywhere. Instead, you'll have tendrils of knowledge extending far from your comfort zone. Then you can later backfill from these tendrils, and extend your comfort zone; this is much easier to do than learning "forwards". (Caution: this backfilling is necessary. There can be a temptation to learn lots of fancy words and to use them in fancy sentences without being able to say precisely what you mean. You should feel free to do that, but you should always feel a pang of guilt when you do.)

The second point I'd make is that the spacing effect (distributed practice) works for complex learning goals as well, although it will help if your practice consists of more than rote recall.

Comment author: ChristianKl 27 January 2014 12:16:41AM 0 points [-]

If you learn definitions it's important to sit down and actually understand the definition. If you write a card before you understand it, that will lead to problems.

Comment author: bramflakes 26 January 2014 11:45:44PM 1 point [-]

Yeah, I'm wary of that fact and I've learned the downsides of it through experience :)

Comment author: whales 26 January 2014 08:56:14PM *  1 point [-]

Nice, and good luck! I'm glad to see that my post resonated with someone. For rhetorical purposes, I didn't temper my recommendations as much as I could have -- I still think building mental models through deliberate practice in solving difficult problems is at the core of physics education.

I treat even "signpost" flashcards as opportunities to rehearse a web of connections rather than as the quiz "what's on the other side of this card?" If an angle-addition formula came up, I'd want to recall the easy derivation in terms of complex exponentials and visualize some specific cases on the unit circle, at least at first. I also use cards like that in addition to cards which are themselves mini-problems.

Comment author: shminux 26 January 2014 05:44:58PM 10 points [-]

In my experience memorization often comes for free when you strive for fluency through repetition. You end up remembering the quadratic formula after solving a few hundred quadratic equations. Same with the trig identities. I probably still remember all the most common identities years out of school, owing to the thousands (no exaggeration) of trig problems I had to solve in high school and uni. And can derive the rest in under a minute.

Memorization through solving problems gives you much more than anki decks, however: you end up remembering the roads, not just the signposts, so to speak, which is important for solving test problems quickly.

You are right that "the reduction in mental effort required on basic operations will rapidly compound to allow for much greater fluency with harder problems", I am not sure that anki is the best way to achieve this reduction, though it is certainly worth a try.

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 26 January 2014 03:51:21PM *  5 points [-]

Does anyone else experience the feeling of alienation? And does anyone have a good strategy for dealing with it?

Comment author: memoridem 28 January 2014 02:12:15AM *  2 points [-]

I think this feeling arises from social norms feeling unnatural to you. This feeling should be expected if your interests are relevant to this site, since people are not trying to be rational by default.

The difference between a pathetic misfit and and an admirable eccentric is their level of awesomeness. If you become good enough at anything relevant to other people, you don't have to live through their social expectations. Conform to the norms or rise above them.

Note that I think most social norms are nice to have, but this doesn't mean there aren't enough of the kind that make me feel alienated. It could be that the feeling of alienation is a necessary side effect of some beneficial cognitive change, in which case I'd try to cherish the feeling. I've found that rising to a leadership position diminishes the feeling significantly, however.

Comment author: MathiasZaman 27 January 2014 10:56:26AM 1 point [-]

I think that feeling is more common than you might think. Especially if you deviate enough from the societal norm (which Less Wrong generally does).

My general strategy for dealing with is social interaction with people who'll probably understand. Just talk it over with them. It's best if you do this with people you care about. It doesn't have to be in person, if you've got someone relevant on Skype, that works as well.

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 27 January 2014 02:38:16PM 2 points [-]

Hmm, this is probably good advice. Part of my problem is that my entire family is made up of people who are both 1) Passionate advocates of an American political tribe and 2) Not very sophisticated philosophically.

Comment author: MathiasZaman 27 January 2014 02:57:29PM 3 points [-]

A common condition with geeks in general and aspiring rationalists in particular, I'd say.

I've recently been expanding my network of like-minded people both by going to the local meetups and also by being invited in a Skype group for tumblr rationalists.

I know that a feeling of alienation isn't conductive to meeting new people, so I'm not sure I can offer other advice. Contact some friends who might be open to new ideas? I'd offer to help myself, but I'm not sure if I'm the right person to talk to. (In any case, I've PM'd my Skype name if you do need a complete stranger to talk to.)

Comment author: ChristianKl 26 January 2014 10:11:31PM 2 points [-]

Feeling usually become a problem when you resist them.

My general approach with feelings:

  1. Find someone towards which you can express the content behind the feeling. This works best in person. Online communication isn't good for resolving feelings. Speak openly about whatever comes to mind.

  2. Track the feeling down in your body. Be aware where it happens to be. Then release it.

Comment author: Lumifer 26 January 2014 05:13:11PM 7 points [-]

Does anyone else experience the feeling of alienation?

But of course.

And does anyone have a good strategy for dealing with it?

Accept that you're not average and not even typical.

Comment author: Kawoomba 26 January 2014 04:18:43PM 4 points [-]

Yes, although it would help if you could be a bit more specific, the term is somewhat overloaded.

As for the strategy, depends. Find a better community (than the one you feel alienated from) in the sense of better matching values? We both seem to feel quite at home in this one (for me, if not for the suffocating supremacy of EA).

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 26 January 2014 04:44:47PM *  5 points [-]

I meant alienated from society at large, not from LW, although the influence of society at large obviously affects discussion on LW.

One aspect of my feeling is that I increasingly suspect that the fundamental reason people believe things in the political realm is that they feel a powerful psychological need to justify hatred. The naive view of political psychology is that people form ideological beliefs out of their experience and perceptions of the world, and those beliefs suggest that a certain category of people is harming the world, and so therefore they are justified in feeling hatred against that category of people. But my new view is that causality flows in the opposite direction: people feel hatred as a primal psychological urge, and so their conscious forebrain is forced to concoct an ideology that justifies the hatred while still allowing the individual to maintain a positive pro-social self-image.

This theory is partially testable, because it posits that a basic prerequisite of an ideology is that it identifies an out-group and justifies hatred against that out-group.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 27 January 2014 06:06:41AM *  3 points [-]

There is a quote commonly mis-attributed to August Bebel and indeed to Marx: "Antisemitismus ist der Sozialismus des dummen Kerls." ("Antisemitism is the socialism of the stupid guy", or perhaps colloquially, "Antisemitism is a dumb-ass version of socialism") That is to say, politically naïve people were attracted to antisemitism because it offered them someone to blame for the problems they faced under capitalism, which — to the quoted speaker's view, anyway — would be better remedied by changing the political-economic structure.

Jay Smooth recently put out a video, "Moving the Race Conversation Forward", discussing recent research to the effect that mainstream-media discussions of racial issues tend to get bogged down in talking about whether an individual did or said something racist, as opposed to whether institutions and social structures produce racially biased outcomes.

There are probably other sources for similar ideas from around the political spectra. (I'll cheerfully admit that the above two sources are rather lefter than I am, and I just couldn't be arsed to find two rightish ones to fit the politesse of balance.) People do often look for individuals or out-groups to blame for problems caused by economic conditions, social structures, institutions, and so on. The individuals blamed may have precious little to do with the actual problems.

That said, if someone's looking to place blame for a problem, that does suggest the problem is real. It's not that they're inventing the problem in order to have something to pin on an out-group. (It also doesn't mean that a particular structural claim, Marxist or whatever, is correct on what that problem really is — just that the problem is not itself confabulated.)

Comment author: RichardKennaway 27 January 2014 08:11:10PM *  4 points [-]

There is a quote commonly mis-attributed to August Bebel and indeed to Marx: "Antisemitismus ist der Sozialismus des dummen Kerls." ("Antisemitism is the socialism of the stupid guy", or perhaps colloquially, "Antisemitism is a dumb-ass version of socialism") That is to say, politically naïve people were attracted to antisemitism because it offered them someone to blame for the problems they faced under capitalism, which — to the quoted speaker's view, anyway — would be better remedied by changing the political-economic structure.

Does that make socialism the anti-semitism of the smart? Or perhaps of the ambitious -- they're attracted to it because it gives them an enemy big enough to justify taking over everything?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 27 January 2014 05:45:22PM 2 points [-]

I've seen it phrased as "Anti-semitism is the socialism of fools".

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 27 January 2014 02:32:37PM 0 points [-]

Sure, obviously there are real problems in the world. Your examples seem to support my thesis that people believe in ideologies not because those ideologies are capable of solving the problems, but because the ideologies justify their feelings of hatred.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 28 January 2014 02:13:53AM 1 point [-]

I suppose I see it as more a case of biased search: people have actual problems, and look for explanations and solutions to those problems, but have a bias towards explanations that have to do with blaming someone. The closer someone studies the actual problems, though, the less credibility blame-based explanations have.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 27 January 2014 03:34:58AM 1 point [-]

Tentatively: Look for what "and therefore" you've got associated with the feeling. Possibilities that come to my mind-- and therefore people are frightening, or and therefore I should be angry at them all the time, or and therefore I should just hide, or and therefore I shouldn't be seeing this.

In any case, if you've got an "and therefore" and you make it conscious, you might be able to think better about the feeling.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 26 January 2014 07:23:59PM *  3 points [-]

The part where the emotional needs come first, and the ideological belief comes later as a way of expressing and justifying them, that feels credible. I just don't think that everyone starts from the position of hatred (or, in the naive view, not everyone ends with hatred). There are other emotions, too.

But maybe the people motivated by hatred make a large part of the most mindkilled crowd. Because other emotions can be expressed legitimately also outside of the politics.

Comment author: maia 26 January 2014 06:36:31PM 1 point [-]

Do you have an in-person community that you feel close to?

What I'm trying to get at is, does it bother you specifically that you are alienated from "society at large," or do you feel alienated in general?

Comment author: Thomas 26 January 2014 09:51:32AM *  5 points [-]

Last night we had meetup in Ljubljana. It was a good debate, but quite a heretical one for the LW standards. Especially when organizers left us. Which was unfortunate. We mostly don't see ourselves particularly bonded to LW at all. Especially I.

We discussed personal identity, possible near super-intelligence (sudden hack, if you wish), Universe transformation following this eventuality, and some lighter topics like fracking for gas and oil, language revolutions throughout history, neo-reactionaries and their points, Einstein's brains (whether they were lighter or heavier than average - I am quite sure they were heavier but it seems that the Cathedral says otherwise).

We discussed Three Worlds Collide, IBM brain simulations, MIRI endeavors and progress, genetics ...

More than 5 hours of an interesting debate.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 26 January 2014 03:15:03PM 2 points [-]

Heretical? Well, considering that 'heretic' means 'someone who thinks on their own', I'm not sure how we're supposed to interpret that negatively.

I assume however that you meant 'disagreeing with common positions displayed on LW' - which of those common positions did you differ on, and why, and just how homogeneous do you think LW is on those?

Comment author: Thomas 26 January 2014 04:20:15PM *  0 points [-]

I can speak mostly for myself. Still, we the locals go back decade and more, discussing some topics.

It is kind of clear to me, that there is a race toward superintelligence. As it was always the race toward some future technology, be it flying, be it atomic bomb, be it Moon race ... you name it.

Except, that this is the final, most important race ever. What can you expect then from the competitors? You can expect them to claim, that the Singularity/Transcendence is still far, far away. You can expect, that the competition will try to persuade you to abandon your own project, if you have any. For example, by saying that an uncontrollable monster is lurking in the dark, named UFAI. They will say just about anything, to persuade you to quit.

This works both ways, between almost any two competitors, to be clear.

My view is the following. If you are clever and dare enough, you can write a 10000 lines or there about long computer program, and there will be the Singularity the very next month.

I am not sure, if there is a human (group) currently able to accomplish this. Very well might be. It's likely NOT THAT difficult.

We discussed the Marylin vos Savant's toying with Paul Erdos. A smartass against a top scientist is occasionally like a cat and mouse game, where the mouse mistakenly thinks he's a cat. There are many other examples, like Ballard against all the historians and archeologists. Or Moldbug against Dawkins.

Of course, that does not automatically mean another smartass is preying upon the MIRI and AI academia combined, in the real AI case. But it's not impossible. May be several different big cats in the wild who keep a low profile for a time being. Might be lion with his pride, inhabiting the academia also.

The most interesting outcome would be no Singularity for a few decades.

Comment author: Lumifer 26 January 2014 05:03:13PM 3 points [-]

If you are clever and dare enough, you can write a 10000 lines or there about long computer program, and there will be the Singularity the very next month.

That seems an... unusual view. Have you actually tried writing code that exhibits something related to intelligence?

10K lines is not a big program.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 27 January 2014 03:57:18PM *  0 points [-]

It depends on your language and coding style, doesn't it? I've seen C style guides that require you to stretch out onto 15 lines what I'd hope to take 4, and in a good functional language shouldn't take more than 2.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 04:18:16PM 1 point [-]

Yes, and the number of lines is a ridiculously bad metric of the code's complexity anyway.

Was a funny moment when someone I know was doing a Java assignment, I got curious, and it turned out that a full page of Java code is three lines in Perl :-)

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 27 January 2014 04:22:04PM *  0 points [-]

That really depends on coding style, again. I find that common Java coding styles are hideously decompressed, and become far more readable if you do a few things per line instead of maybe half a thing. Even they aren't as bad as the worst C coding styles I've seen, though, where it takes like 7 lines to declare a function.

As for Perl vs Java... was it solved in Perl by a Regex? That's one case where if you don't know what you're doing, Java can end up really bloated but it usually doesn't need to be all that bad.

Comment author: Lumifer 27 January 2014 04:40:13PM 0 points [-]

As for Perl vs Java... was it solved in Perl by a Regex?

I don't remember the details by now, but I think that yes, there was a regexp and a map, and a few of Perl's shortcuts turned out to be useful...

Comment author: Thomas 26 January 2014 05:22:50PM 0 points [-]

I have certain abilities. This is the product of the product of mine from 10 years ago.

Smartass I am. Probably not smart enough to really make a difference, though.

Comment author: Lumifer 26 January 2014 06:04:20PM 3 points [-]

Smartass is good. Saying things which are clearly not true without a hidden smartassy implication behind them -- not so much :-)

Comment author: lukeprog 26 January 2014 08:59:03AM *  36 points [-]

Every now and then I like to review my old writings so I can cringe at all the wrong things I wrote, and say "oops" for each of them. Here we go...

There was once a time when the average human couldn't expect to live much past age thirty. (Jul 2012)

That's probably wrong. IIRC, previous eras' low life expectancy was mostly due to high child mortality.

We have not yet mentioned two small but significant developments leading us to agree with Schmidhuber (2012) that "progress toward self-improving AIs is already substantially beyond what many futurists and philosophers are aware of." These two developments are Marcus Hutter's universal and provably optimal AIXI agent model... and Jurgen Schmidhuber's universal self-improving Godel machine models... (May 2012)

This sentence is defensible for certain definitions of "significant," but I think it was a mistake to include this sentence (and the following quotes from Hutter and Schmidhuber) in the paper. AIXI and Godel machines probably aren't particularly important pieces of progress to AGI worth calling out like that. I added those paragraphs to section 2.4. not long before the submission deadline, and regretted it a couple months later.

one statistical prediction rule developed in 1995 predicts the price of mature Bordeaux red wines at auction better than expert wine tasters do. (Jan 2011)

No, that's a misreading of the study.

On September 26, 1983, Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov saved the world. (Nov 2011)

Eh, not really.

in the U.S., the administering charity need not spend from the donor-advised fund as the donor wishes, though they often do. (Jul 2012)

Silly. Donor-advised funds basically always fund as the donor wishes.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 27 January 2014 03:17:51AM 1 point [-]

Huh. I followed the link to the correction of the Petrov story, and found I'd already upvoted it.

But if you'd asked me yesterday for examples of heroes yesterday, I'd have cited Petrov immediately. S

hows how hard it is to unlearn false information once you've learned it.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 January 2014 07:17:51PM 2 points [-]

Smart move not only to review but post the results. Shows humbleness and at the same time prevents being called on it later.

This is an approach I'd like to see more often. Maybe you should add it to the http://lesswrong.com/lw/h7d/grad_student_advice_repository/ or some such.

Comment author: private_messaging 26 January 2014 05:35:32PM 0 points [-]

On the AIXI and such... you see, its just hard to appreciate just how much training it takes to properly understand something like that. Very intelligent people, with very high mental endurance, train for decades, to be able to mentally manipulate the relevant concepts at their base level. Now, let's say someone only spent a small fraction of the time - either because they've pursued a wrong topic through the most critical years, or because they have low mental endurance. Unless they're impossibly intelligent, they have no chance of forming even a merely good understanding.

Comment author: gjm 26 January 2014 10:29:46AM 10 points [-]

previous eras' low life expectancy was mostly due to high child mortality.

I have long thought that the very idea of "life expectancy at birth" is a harmful one, because it encourages exactly that sort of confusion. It lumps together two things (child mortality and life expectancy once out of infancy) with sufficiently different causes and sufficiently different effects that they really ought to be kept separate.

Comment author: TylerJay 26 January 2014 07:18:11PM 2 points [-]

Does anybody have a source that separates the two out? For example, to what age can the average X year old today expect to live? Or even at a past time?

Comment author: Lumifer 26 January 2014 07:33:42PM 5 points [-]

Does anybody have a source that separates the two out? For example, to what age can the average X year old today expect to live?

Sure, there is the concept of life expectancy at specific age. For example, there is the "default" life expectancy at birth, there is the life expectancy for a 20 year-old, life expectancy for a 60-year-old, etc. Just google it up.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 27 January 2014 07:11:26AM 1 point [-]

It's kind of important to the life insurance business ....

Comment author: TylerJay 26 January 2014 08:08:13PM 1 point [-]

Thanks. Interestingly, My numbers never matched up between any 2 sources.

The US SSA's actuarial tables give me a number that's 5 years different from their own "additional life expectancy" calculator.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 26 January 2014 10:12:56AM *  11 points [-]

On September 26, 1983, Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov saved the world. (Nov 2011)

Eh, not really.

The Wiki link in the linked LW post seems to be closer to "Stanislav Petrov saved the world" than "not really":

Petrov judged the report to be a false alarm, and his decision is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack

...

His colleagues were all professional soldiers with purely military training and, following instructions, would have reported a missile strike if they had been on his shift.

...

Petrov, as an individual, was not in a position where he could single-handedly have launched any of the Soviet missile arsenal. ... But Petrov's role was crucial in providing information to make that decision. According to Bruce Blair, a Cold War nuclear strategies expert and nuclear disarmament advocate, formerly with the Center for Defense Information, "The top leadership, given only a couple of minutes to decide, told that an attack had been launched, would make a decision to retaliate."

A closely related article says:

Petrov's responsibilities included observing the satellite early warning network and notifying his superiors of any impending nuclear missile attack against the Soviet Union. If notification was received from the early warning systems that inbound missiles had been detected, the Soviet Union's strategy was an immediate nuclear counter-attack against the United States (launch on warning), specified in the doctrine of mutual assured destruction.

That he didn't literally have his finger on the "Smite!" button, or that the SU might still not have retaliated if he'd raised the alarm, is not the point.

Comment author: falenas108 26 January 2014 07:56:14AM 14 points [-]

I've been systematically downvoted for the past 16 days. Every day or two, I'd lose about 10 karma. So far, I've lost a total of about 160 karma.

It's not just somebody just going through my comments and downvoting the ones they disagree with. Even a comment where I said "thanks" when somebody pointed out a formatting error in my comments is now at -1.

I'm not sure what can/should be done about this, but I thought I should post it here. And if the person who did this is here and there is a reason, I would appreciate it if you would say it here.

Comment author: VAuroch 30 January 2014 01:09:30AM *  1 point [-]

I have experienced this also, though roughly a month ago, after an extended debate on trans* issues specifically.

I responded by messaging the person I had argued with, and politely asking that, if it was them who had been downvoting me, they please stop going through my comment history. I got no response, but the stream of downvotes seemed to tail off shortly thereafter.

EDIT: As a side note, the person with whom I had been debating/arguing was the same one that showed up in the thread ChrisHallquist linked. It looks like it's a pattern of behavior for him.

Comment author: Vulture 27 January 2014 06:48:26PM *  4 points [-]

I got a seemingly one-time hit of this about a week ago. For what it's worth I had just been posting comments on the subject of rape, but a whole bunch of my unrelated comments got it too.

(Since then it's been having an obnoxious deterrent effect on my commenting, because I feel so precariously close to just accumulating negative karma every time I post, leaving readers with the impression that my ideas have all been identified as worthless by someone probably cleverer than themselves. I'm now consciously trying to avoid thinking like this)

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 26 January 2014 09:43:33PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 January 2014 07:12:37PM -2 points [-]

I have blindly upvoted your 10 most recent comments. This is meant as consolation but likely a one-time action .