I asked a similar question a while back, and I was directed to this book, which I found to be incredibly useful. It is written at an elementary level, has minimal little maths, yet is still technical, and brings across so many central ideas in very clear, Bayesian, terms. It is also on Lukeprog's CSA book recommendations for 'Become Smart Quickly'.

Note: this is the only probability textbook I have read. I've glanced through the openings of others, and they've tended to be above my level. I am sixteen.