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Oscar_Cunningham comments on Open thread, January 25- February 1 - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: NancyLebovitz 25 January 2014 02:52PM

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Comment author: banx 26 January 2014 12:27:13AM *  5 points [-]

Is it always correct to choose that action with the highest expected utility?

Suppose I have a choice between action A, which grants -100 utilons with 99.9% chance and +1000000 utilons with 0.1% chance, or action B which grants +1 utilon with 100% chance. A has an expected utility of +900.1 utilons, while B has an expected utility of +1 utilon. This decision will be available to me only once, and all future decision will involve utility changes on the order of a few utilons.

Intuitively, it seems like action A is too risky. I'll almost certainly end up with a huge decrease in utility, just because there's a remote chance of a windfall. Risk aversion doesn't apply here, since we're dealing in utility, right? So either I'm failing to truly appreciate the chance at getting 1M utilons -- I'm stuck thinking about it as I would money -- or this is a case where there's reason to not take the action that maximizes expected value. Help?

EDIT: Changed the details of action A to what was intended

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 26 January 2014 11:48:49AM 3 points [-]

A, which grants -100 utilons with 99.9% chance and +10000 utilons with 0.1%

A has an expected utility of +900.1 utilons

Um, A actually has a utility of -89.9.

That explains why it seems less appealing!