I can speak mostly for myself. Still, we the locals go back decade and more, discussing some topics.

It is kind of clear to me, that there is a race toward superintelligence. As it was always the race toward some future technology, be it flying, be it atomic bomb, be it Moon race ... you name it.

Except, that this is the final, most important race ever. What can you expect then from the competitors? You can expect them to claim, that the Singularity/Transcendence is still far, far away. You can expect, that the competition will try to persuade you to abandon your own project, if you have any. For example, by saying that an uncontrollable monster is lurking in the dark, named UFAI. They will say just about anything, to persuade you to quit.

This works both ways, between almost any two competitors, to be clear.

My view is the following. If you are clever and dare enough, you can write a 10000 lines or there about long computer program, and there will be the Singularity the very next month.

I am not sure, if there is a human (group) currently able to accomplish this. Very well might be. It's likely NOT THAT difficult.

We discussed the Marylin vos Savant's toying with Paul Erdos. A smartass against a top scientist is occasionally like a cat and mouse game, where the mouse mistakenly thinks he's a cat. There are many other examples, like Ballard against all the historians and archeologists. Or Moldbug against Dawkins.

Of course, that does not automatically mean another smartass is preying upon the MIRI and AI academia combined, in the real AI case. But it's not impossible. May be several different big cats in the wild who keep a low profile for a time being. Might be lion with his pride, inhabiting the academia also.

The most interesting outcome would be no Singularity for a few decades.