Can one detect intelligence in retrospect?
Let me explain. Let's take the definition of an intelligent agent as an optimizer over possible futures, steering the world toward the preferred one. Now, suppose we look at the world after the optimizer is done. Only one of the many possible worlds, the one steered by the optimizer, is accessible to retrospection. Let's further assume that we have no access to the internals of the optimizer, only to the recorded history. In particular, we cannot rely on it having human-like goals and use pattern-matching to whatever a human would do.
Is there still enough data left to tell with high probability that an intelligent optimizer is at work, and not just a random process? If so, how would one determine that? If not, what hope do we have of detecting an alien intelligence?
This is isomorphic to the problem (edit: not impossibility) of coming up with a fully mind-neutral definition of information entropy, is it not?
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.