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James_Miller comments on Link: Poking the Bear (Podcast) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Agreed with the following two clarifications. (1) By first digit I assume we mean to the left of the decimal point so if the S&P 500 is 1864.33 at close the first digit is a 4 and (2) and by Russian tanks we mean tanks operated by Russian troops not a tank built in Russia.
You guys left one possible loophole: Does "tanks will be involved in combat" mean actually firing shells?
I would say "no" but there does have to be fighting because of the word "combat".