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Lumifer comments on Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto? - Less Wrong Discussion
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"The man Newsweek claims is the founder of Bitcoin denies he had anything to do with the digital currency.
In an exclusive two-hour interview with The Associated Press Dorian S. Nakamoto, 64, said he had never heard of Bitcoin until his son told him he had been contacted by a reporter three weeks ago."
says AP
That's good to know. It's not much evidence either way, though. The real Satoshi would probably say something very similar to that.
The real Satoshi would likely be in a situation where claiming complete ignorance would be a poor strategic choice. If the real Satoshi were to make that claim, he (I'm assuming it's safe to use male pronouns) would be making a gamble that nothing would come to light that would contradict that claim. It's possible that Satoshi would feel comfortable making that gamble, but there is a significant probability that the real Satoshi cannot credibly claim complete ignorance. The fact that Dorian made that claim is weak evidence that this is a safe gamble for him to make, and it being a safe gamble is weak evidence that he is not Satoshi.
I was previously 70% sure that Dorian is Satoshi but this interview and other reports that he was taken out of context by the Newsweek reporter has now made me think this is just a coin flip.