Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?
Really? If Dorian Nakamoto had recently and mysteriously come into a lot of money, that would lower your estimate that he was Satoshi? Satoshi is less likely to have accumulated an unexplained fortune than the base rate?
Yes. The early coins have been scrutinized pretty heavily, and the more time that passes, the harder it is to move a lot of coins (eg. with each day, the coin-days-destroyed increases, irrespective of exchange rate; and blockchain analysis gets better, which because Satoshi did not move the coins early on is going to work against him ever more - normally, the more time that passes and the more transactions that happen, the worse and more unreliable blockchain analysis gets, but since he's done no transactions...).
If Dorian came into a lot of money, I would... (read more)