Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?
My first-pass pattern recognition parsed this comment as a claim that you, personally, were not Dorian Nakamoto, with a link to a confidence level for that claim on predictionbook.
Haha, I bet I could appear pretty well calibrated if I bet only on claims about myself. :)