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ESRogs comments on On not getting a job as an option - Less Wrong Discussion

36 Post author: diegocaleiro 11 March 2014 02:44AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 12 March 2014 01:30:06AM 4 points [-]

Or were you just saying you think the US was exceptional during the 20th century, and investors should not expect similar returns

Yes, that is what I am saying.

whether that particular chart took into account survivorship bias

I meant survivorship bias in the country sense. What's the return of a German stock portfolio over the last century? It is zero -- the portfolio went to zero in WW2 and without additional money invested it stays at zero.

Comment author: ESRogs 12 March 2014 01:37:46AM 1 point [-]

Hmm, interesting points. I had not seriously taken into account survivorship bias in this national sense before. I will have to think more about that.

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