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Lumifer comments on Open thread, 11-17 March 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (226)
I would like to see evidence for (1) which goes beyond "future is uncertain and large-impact events are important".
(2) is just part of the definition of what a black swan is.
(3a) is Taleb's idea of antifragility. I am not sure it's practical. For any system that you can build I can imagine an improbable event which will smash it.
As to (3b) Taleb ran a hedge fund for a while, if I recall correctly. It did badly. Taleb doesn't like to mention it.
(3c) is just good risk management and again, see (3a). I don't know what are the practical suggestions beyond diversification. Hedging against disaster (typically by buying volatility or selling short) implies losses if the disaster does not happen.
Have you read the book?
I have read The Black Swan, I have not read Antifragile.
I think anti-fragility makes sense if you think of it as existing over a range of stressors rather than being an absolute quality.
Wikipedia says:
Without having the number for 2001 to 2004 it's hard to say how badly it run.
Universa the hedge fund Taleb is currently advicing seems to run well enough to have $6 billion in assets under management but I can't easily find numbers of return.