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ChristianKl comments on Open thread, 11-17 March 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: David_Gerard 11 March 2014 10:45PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 12 March 2014 01:58:59AM *  1 point [-]

I would like to see evidence for (1) which goes beyond "future is uncertain and large-impact events are important".

(2) is just part of the definition of what a black swan is.

(3a) is Taleb's idea of antifragility. I am not sure it's practical. For any system that you can build I can imagine an improbable event which will smash it.

As to (3b) Taleb ran a hedge fund for a while, if I recall correctly. It did badly. Taleb doesn't like to mention it.

(3c) is just good risk management and again, see (3a). I don't know what are the practical suggestions beyond diversification. Hedging against disaster (typically by buying volatility or selling short) implies losses if the disaster does not happen.

Comment author: ChristianKl 12 March 2014 01:01:22PM 1 point [-]

I don't know what are the practical suggestions beyond diversification.

Have you read the book?

Comment author: Lumifer 12 March 2014 03:30:10PM 0 points [-]

I have read The Black Swan, I have not read Antifragile.